A few years ago, I would have had a 500 word post on each of the following articles from Million Dollar Way. Now I’m to the point where I get the knowledge quicker and only want to summarize in a few sentences. The news in these two posts is huge: First, the horrid Bakken decline rate might not be as big a deal as previously thought. Second, the drilling rate of 2,500 new wells a year is probably sustainable.
The declining relevance of the decline rate
3/31 – Million Dollar Way – Decline Rate And The Bakken – Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – decline rate and sustained drilling – 4-8-14”
Amazing things going on around us. Here is my latest list of a few articles about energy that help me make sense of the radical change taking place. Tomorrow, tidbits of the other newly open frontiers.
1-6 – CNS News – Saudi Billionaire Prince: Fracking Competitively Threatens ‘Any Oil Producing Country in the World’ – Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal is pushing the Saudi government to diversify the country’s economy. Currently 92% of government revenue is derived from oil, he says. The rapid expansion in output caused by combining horizontal drilling with staged hydraulic fracturing presents a serious threat to any country that is reliant on oil. Big news. Bigger issue.
A delightful “problem” to have – 1-7 – Bismarck Tribune from the New York Times – Oil glut stirs up political brew – The surging production of crude is opening a discussion of whether to allow more exports of crude. Seems we have so much unrefined light, sweet crude we don’t know what to do with it all. As a result, the politicians are getting involved. I wish we as a country and planet had another half-dozen “problems” like this.
(By the way, what Peak Oil?)
More downside to the Bakken boom – 1-10 – The Dickinson Press – Criminal defendants in fed court up 31 percent in western N.D. in 2013 – Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers, energy edition – 1-16-14”
I watch the Million Dollar Way blog closely. I’ve learned much from Mr. Bruce Oksol. Thank you sir.
In his post, Bakken Fanatics; Fasten Your Seatbelts – We’ve Not Seen Anything Yet, he mentions a Goldman Sachs study which predicts 10 years of continued growth in Bakken production. Their worst case scenario is 1.3M bopd in 2017.
More interesting is Mr. Oksol’s speculation that the state may slow things down a bit as an intentional choice. He says: Continue reading “Another prediction for oil production in North Dakota: back off the accelerator a bit”
September production was 932,174 barrels a day. That is a 2.3% increase for the month.
I missed my prediction
Continue reading “9-13 North Dakota oil production 932K bopd – I missed my guess to hit one million barrels by September”
The Energy Information Administration released a report about 2 weeks ago reporting their estimates of what production will be in 6 major fields for October and November.
Continue reading “Eagle Ford production passes the 1M bopd level in October?”
Million Dollar Way points to a must-read article at Rigzone: Kemp: Why Shale Plays really Are Different.
The article describes why perennial skeptics have been so severely wrong about Bakken shale oil, why the rapid decline rate is actually attractive, and explains shale oil is more manufacturing-like than conventional oil.
The “optimists” were conservative
Continue reading “Why shale is such a misunderstood game changer”
Million Dollar Way points to a presentation by Continental Resources from October 2013 available on this page.
May as well disclose this is not an investment site. It would be foolish to make investment decisions based on what I say.
What I will do is comment on a few tidbits in the presentation that expand my knowledge with the idea that people reading my blog would likely learn as well.
Falling costs of drilling are described on slide eight. Here’s the disclosed info: Continue reading “More background on Bakken drilling including well costs and EURs”
The Director of the Department of Mineral Resources, Lynn Helms, thinks oil production will be 1.6 million bopd by 2017. That is from an article a month ago in the Dickinson Press, Helms: State’s daily oil production will double by ’17. That is a forecast four years out.
Newer preliminary production in August ’13 was 911K bopd. That is more current info than was available during the interview. So 1.6M bopd would be just over 75% increase from the August amount.
Here’s the first estimate I’ve seen for the highest level of output for Bakken oil.
The graph predicts crossing the 1 million point in early 2014 (hard to tell a specific point on a graph that has a 40 year scale, but that’s what it looks like.) About 2 million bopd in 2023 with a tail that falls back to a million in about 2038 dropping to around 400,000 in 2050.
That would be above 1M bopd for about 20 years.
Check out the graph from Sachs Global Investment Research found at Bakken Shale: Bakken Production Chart -Goldman Sachs.
Oh. And that from a field that was producing 80,000 bopd a decade ago because none of the geology and engineering whizs had any idea how to get the oil out of the ground.
From 80K bopd to 2,000k bopd in 2 decades. Wow.
I’ve been tracking predictions for when Bakken hits a million barrels a day. Both Carpe Diem and Million Dollar Way put a prediction on the table today.
Check out the astounding increase in production in Eagle Ford shown in the graph from Carpe Diem: Energy fact of the day: Eagle Ford Shale sets new oil output record in May, will likely surpass Bakken Shale next year.
Production in May was 581,923 bopd, per the preliminary report.
Continue reading “The race is on – when will Eagle Ford and Bakken hit a million barrels a day?”
Production state-wide hit 810,314 bopd in May, up 2.07% from revised April amount of 793,913 bopd.
Here’s a graph:
Six month increase
That is an increase of only 8.1% over six months, which was the last month before the winter impacts hit.
Continue reading “North Dakota oil production sets another record in 5-13”
In terms of Bentek’s forecast from 2011, production is already at 2016 levels. It is so cool they were wrong!
In the distant past of April 2011 (that data is only 24 months old), production was around 500k bopd. Production was forecast to hit around 700k bopd by the end of 2012 and around 900k bopd by December 2016.
That info from RBN Energy’s article Too Wrong for Too Long? How 2011 Bakken Crude Forecasts Compare to Today.
The graph of actual and forecast production now?
Continue reading “In the Bakken, the calendar may say this is 2013, but for oil production it’s already 2016”
The USGS updated their estimate of the amount of oil that is undiscovered, technically recoverable in the Bakken field. Second paragraph of their press release says:
The USGS assessment found that the Bakken Formation has an estimated mean oil resource of 3.65 BBO and the Three Forks Formation has an estimated mean resource of 3.73 BBO, for a total of 7.38 BBO, with a range of 4.42 (95 percent chance) to 11.43 BBO (5 percent chance). This assessment of both formations represents a significant increase over the estimated mean resource of 3.65 billion barrels of undiscovered oil in the Bakken Formation that was estimated in the 2008 assessment.
This means the mid-point (statistically correct phrase: mean) of the total oil that is technically recoverable with current technology is 7.4 billion barrels of oil. Their assessment is that the probability is 95% that there will be at least 4.4B and the probability is 5% that there could be as much as 11.4B.
Continue reading “Another Bakken’s worth of oil discovered. And it’s underneath the current Bakken. Oh, and what Peak Oil?”
Million Dollar Way pulls together three estimates of recoverable oil for Bakken field – Estimates of Bakken Recoverable Oil.
Three data points: Continue reading “Estimates of recoverable oil in Bakken”
As a marker for future discussions in my blog, just wanted to note that Continental Resources Inc is estimating the Bakken field
holds the equivalent of 903 billion barrels of so-called oil in place, compared with the company’s 2010 estimate of 577 billion,
Continue reading “Estimates of Bakken field”