Month: April 2013

“Bakken Assembly Line” – drilling will continue for 3 more years at the current pace

Bruce Oksol provides a voice of calm in response to an alarmist editorial in the Bismarck Tribune. The editorial mentions that the state government expects 6,000 wells to come on-line in the next three years. That will lead to huge increases in drilling, truck traffic, and overall activity. At least according to the paper: Prepare for a “big surge” in Bakken.

Actually, that would be a continuation of the pace of drilling that is going on now. Today. More Details on the Coming Surge in The Bakken: 6,000 Additional Bakken Wells Over The Next Three Years reminds us that the current production rate is already 2,000 new wells a year.

Continue reading ““Bakken Assembly Line” – drilling will continue for 3 more years at the current pace”

Successful test of rocket hovering and making soft landing

SpaceX had a successful test of their Grasshopper rocket.

News 92 FM in Houston reports – SpaceX Rocket Launches, Hovers, and Lands:

The ten-story tall vertical takeoff, vertical landing vehicle slowly lifts off the ground and climbs to a height of around 850 feet, then hovers effortlessly in the air before slowly lowering back down to the launch pad, successfully nailing one of the softest landings you’ll ever see.

 [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NoxiK7K28PU]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NoxiK7K28PU

I’m no rocket scientist, sitting here in my comfy armchair, but seems like a soft landing from an 850’ hover proves a critical skill for space travel to, say, asteroids or Mars. The jaw-dropping news here is this effort was privately designed, built, funded, and operated. Very cool.

Faster please, as Glenn Reynolds says.

Update 10-13-13: I don’t know if this is the same test. It appears to be from the same site. Regardless, a superb test and a superb view:

 

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9ZDkItO-0a4].

Rough picture of how far the tech revolution has to go

John Bredehoft expanded my discussion on the tech revolution just getting started.

In his post, Why are some revolutions imperceptible?, he describes the revolution in his industry from getting powerful PCs. The impact on the economy was tiny, if even measurable, because the entire industry was small in relation to the overall US economy.

To point out how small the publishing and music industries are, he looked at the Fortune 500 list of largest companies in terms of sales. He points out that the largest identifiable media companies are News Corp at 91 and Time Warner at 103.

Since I’m an accountant and like to quantify things, his post gave me an interesting idea. I went to the list and did a quick analysis to compare the size of a few industries.

Continue reading “Rough picture of how far the tech revolution has to go”

Impact of the technology revolution has barely begun

That we haven’t seen the full impact of IT is a comment I heard the first time a few years ago. That sort of made sense but didn’t really register. This blog is focused on sorting out that change. The idea that the technology revolution has barely begun finally clicked for me with a column by Matthew Yglesias – Why I’m Optimistic About Growth and Innovation.

A few industries have seen huge impact from technology. Think of book publishing, journalism, and music. Those industries have been turned upside down. I read a lot and listen to a bit of music so am quite attuned to those areas. The way everyone consumes news has been transformed. I regularly read dozens of blogs a day. They just appear on my computer screen with a mouse click or two. I’ve always been a news junkie, and my consumption has soared in the last few years.

However, as big as those industries are, they are a small part of the total economy.

Continue reading “Impact of the technology revolution has barely begun”

Technology revolution becoming visible in health care

The music and publishing industries have been transformed by the technology revolution. Some signs are appearing that technology might remake health care.

The Wall Street Journal article, Midlevel Health Jobs Shrink, reports that several trends are reducing opportunities for people in health care with midlevel skill sets.

Here’s a great summary in the article:

Automation, outsourcing and other forces have eliminated many formerly secure jobs in manufacturing, clerical work and other fields. Now health care is following the same path with unforeseen speed.

Continue reading “Technology revolution becoming visible in health care”

What your visit to the doctor may look like in 2023

You will still take a cab to the doctor’s office. For a while. That is a post that guesses what the annual checkup might look like a decade from now.

A self-driving car takes you to the office. A friendly, perceptive, caring, automated voice talks you through your checkup. Sensors that don’t touch you run all the tests.

John Bredehoft paints an appealing picture. Check it out.

You’ll have to read the article to see John’s predictions for the destiny of Google, Facebook, and Apple.

Continue reading “What your visit to the doctor may look like in 2023”

Major hurdle cleared for on-line education – Dep’t of Education approves financial aid for degree based on demonstrated competencies, not number of semester hours

A huge barrier for on-line education will be getting approval from the education regulators for financial assistance. Next hurdle will be accreditation for a stand-alone institution.

The Chronicle of Higher Education reports in Competency-Based Education Advances With U.S. Approval of Program:

The Education Department has approved the eligibility of Southern New Hampshire University to receive federal financial aid for students enrolled in a new, self-paced online program called College for America, the private, nonprofit university has announced.

Continue reading “Major hurdle cleared for on-line education – Dep’t of Education approves financial aid for degree based on demonstrated competencies, not number of semester hours”

Estimate of lifetime financial performance of one Bakken well

Since I’m an accountant, I keep an eye out for info on how one well might perform over its lifetime. Any real data for a well, let alone enough to look at averages, would be a closely guarded trade secret, so I’ll talk about public info.

Of course, if someone wanted to confidentially drop me some actual data & forecasts for real wells, I’d be happy to describe anonymous data. In the meantime…

Ms. Tessa Sandstrom, of the North Dakota Petroleum Council gave a speech reported by the Minot Daily News: Oil Boom drives on.

The article gives this info: Continue reading “Estimate of lifetime financial performance of one Bakken well”

Indications of productivity improvement for on-line education starting to appear

One study is quantifying the increased productivity of on-line classes for professors. The analysis didn’t consider the reduced space needs or savings from students not having to commute to class.  Both of those factors would contribute to the productivity improvement.

Conclusion was a reduction in time of between 36% and 57%.

Continue reading “Indications of productivity improvement for on-line education starting to appear”

Williston pulls liquor licenses from two strip clubs

There are downsides to a booming economy. Things can get out of control with an overwhelming increase in men who work long hours for good money: they need something to do when not working.

With a serious imbalance in the proportion of men and women in Williston, guess what, those guys wind up at the city’s two strip clubs.

The two places are next door to each other. Not a good deal – get bounced out of one for being rowdy and you can stumble to the other.

As you would expect there has been a surge in police calls to the two clubs.

Continue reading “Williston pulls liquor licenses from two strip clubs”

One data point for drilling costs in North Dakota

Bruce Oksol at Million Dollar Way provides one hard data point for costs to drill in Bakken for one producer in their particular locations with their specific techniques. May not apply to any other drillers, but a hard data point is useful.

Bakken Well Costs says: Continue reading “One data point for drilling costs in North Dakota”

Peak Oil = Flat Earth? – #23

Has the Peak Oil concept, which is the idea we can calculate the day that oil production irreversibly starts a catastrophic drop and calculate the specific year we use the last drop of oil, finally gone the way of the Flat Earth Society?

The answer is yes. At least that is the suggestion from an article by Mr. Colin Sullivan at EnergyWire: Has ‘peak oil’ gone the way of the Flat Earth Society?

The article starts with a graph from the 1950s showing a bell curve of all the oil production from 1850 through 2200 (yes, that would be 240 years out). The cumulative production to the c.1950s is exactly 90×10^9, or 90B. Proven reserves are 250B barrels. All future discoveries, under a smooth bell curve peaking at 2000 are 910B barrels. Total oil on the planet ever to be produced is precisely 1,250B barrels, give or take a rounding error.

Only problem with the entire concept? It’s wrong. Why? Continue reading “Peak Oil = Flat Earth? – #23”

What caused the radical change in the graph of GDP over the last 1,000 years?

(Cross-post from my other blog, Freedom is Moral.)

You really need to check out the graph of GDP per person for the last 1,000 year in the U.S., Europe, and the rest of the world.

AEI – The most important economic chart in Western civilization – and how it happened.

Then you need to ask yourself why everyone on the planet had a horrible income level since forever until around 1800.

Continue reading “What caused the radical change in the graph of GDP over the last 1,000 years?”