Million Dollar Way thinks we will see the monthly production drop in November. Might still see one more record in October before the drop for winter.
Mr. Oksol’s comments from his post, New All-Time North Dakota Oil Production Record…
I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the last month (September) in which we see month-over-month increases; if not this month, maybe one more month with a production record, and then after that, starting with the November, 2014, data, the production may start to drop (polar vortex in November, flaring rules, crude oil stabilization rules, slump in oil prices, new tribal chief, and I’m sure something else will pop up between then and now).
Western North Dakota just got hit with its first blast of winter – quite cold (10 degrees is nuthin’ for N.D. residents, but that’s cold for this California boy) and good amount of snow. Travel advisories in the oil area for a few days. Parts east got hit hard – Minneapolis got blasted.
Take a look at the graphs posted earlier.
Notice the recurring drop in the production line? Look at the timeline and you will see those drops correspond to winter.
So, I’ll agree the winter drop is due to start. Maybe one more increase October, then wintertime, and then spring thaw.
I’ll make a not-very-bold guess – after the spring thaw, another string of record production. On the other hand, those other factors like flaring and stabilization could be a drag on production for a while.