Previously mentioned a lot of players are involved with cutting edge efforts for space exploration. Russia is still a player. So is China. Here are a few articles on the Chinese efforts:
1/11 – Behind the Black – China has big plans in space in 2016– Summary of the following article. Recap says China has the goal of launching a new space station in 2016 and put staff on it along with initial launch of two new rockets.
While tech innovations have opened up new frontiers, innovation is disrupting some fields. Here are a few articles making this point that I’ve accumulated recently: newspaper circulation continues to collapse, higher ed is increasingly vulnerable to disruptions, and accreditation agencies (which illustrate regulatory capture) show why disruption is needed.
Reaper drone. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
A few articles on military drone operations.
12/27 – Wall Street Journal – Air Force Looks Beyond Officers to Boost Drone-Pilot Ranks – USAF is moving towards having enlisted troops fly drones. To this point rated pilots had to be at the controls. The increased demands for joint operations combined with staffing limits along with the dreariness of the work has created a shortage of qualified pilots. To fill a gap, USAF may use enlisted pilots.
Unless you have lots of gunpowder or thousands of buddies , I suggest you not mess with this guy and his 6,000 buddies. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
My friend John Bredehoft provides a different perspective on technology change. On 1/22 at his blog tymshft, he asked Do the essentials change?
He discusses a podcast comparing life today to about 35 years ago. For perspective, that puts us in 1981, or the range of the first year of the Reagan administration.
One of many points I draw from the discussion is related to Jon’s last comment:
But the speed of the processing chip in my smartphone is relatively meaningless.
Phrased differently, the smart phone in your hand may have an operating speed that is thousands or millions of times faster than 30 years ago but that increase doesn’t have an impact on your life in proportion to the increase in speed. Increased operating speed in the last decade probably hasn’t affected your life much at all.
A few articles of interest to me over the last two months: baby deliveries increase, airline boardings down, adjustments to low prices continue.
1/15 – Amy Dalrymple at Oil Patch Dispatch – While oil boom has slowed, births still booming– number of births in Williston and my not word a record number last year. The count at Williston’s Mercy Medical Center:
Long term housing for human traffickers. Duration of residence for Keith Graves has yet to be determined. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
Checked the docket in the federal PACER system again today for the now-convicted, felon, sex-trafficker Keith Graves.
No change since my last update on December 18. No new filings in district court. I can’t find any appeals in the 8th Circuit.
Sentencing is still set for February 17. That is just under four weeks away.
What’s noticeable by being absent is the sentencing recommendations from the federal Probation Office, opposition from Mr. Graves’ attorney, and rebuttal by US Attorney. At this point it sure seems to me there should be several filings regarding the recommended sentence. As of this morning, nothing has been filed regarding the sentence.
Thousands of wells can quickly be drilled and come on line when prices edge up. Three wells in 9/15 about to start production. Photo by James Ulvog.
Here are three very different articles on the future of crude oil prices.
One of the memorable things I learned in grad school was the idea that you can’t project the current trend of something into the future forever.
Keep in mind that West Texas Intermediate price was somewhere in the region of $100 a barrel in mid ’14. WTI is now about $26. Let me round off some calculations for simplicity. Let’s call that a current price of $30. Let’s call that a year and a half.
So we see a drop of about $70 in 1.5 years. A straight line projection would calculate out as another $45/bbl in another year. Thus, by 12/31/16 WTI price will be $30 minus $45, or a negative $15. Yes, you read that right. A straight line projection means that oil producers will be paying refineries $15 for every barrel the refiners agree to take off the producer’s hands. Gas prices will consist only of the refining costs, a humongous list of taxes, with an offset for the negative cost of raw material.
You can’t do straight line projections forever.
Here are three superb articles that help me understand what is going on in the world of crude oil…
After the Carnage, Shale Will Rise Again
Helms predicts oil prices to rise again in foreseeable future
Oil prices are quite cyclical. He points out there have been six extremes since the’73-’74 oil embargo. The extremes create turmoil. At the moment we are in the carnage stage of the cyclical extremes.
All the world’s players are reacting to the sustained drop in crude oil prices. Here are a few articles I’ve found of interest lately. Another post soon.
1/12 – CNN money – OPEC considering emergency action on oil prices– Article hints that OPEC may have an emergency meeting as soon as February. Next scheduled meeting is in June. Goal would be to get production cuts which will pull oil off the market and increase prices.
Article asserts Saudi Arabia started the price war (which is now the appropriate word) to go against shale producers in the US. That has been my assumption all along. Most articles I see in print now state that as common knowledge.
OPEC may be about ready to blink.
12/28 – Bloomberg News at Calgary Herald – Shale drillers running out of tricks to survive as OPEC keeps up pressure – Shale drillers have done all they obvious things to cope with $50 oil: lay off staff, focus on the best spots, increase amount of sand, drill smarter, drill faster, and squeeze suppliers. That has allowed the industry to essentially maintain production.
I’ve been tracking the actual costs of various electricity projects as I come across them in my reading. Came across a superb source for future reference.
I’m probably in over my head with this table, but here is what I’ve learned. The total overnight cost is the estimated amount if the project were to be built instantly. I think that represents what most people would consider to be the cost of construction.
Workover rig on a 3-well pad located inside the city limits of Williston. Photo by James Ulvog.
Mentioned Saturday there was a small increase in oil production during November. Here are a few more graphs.
Value of the production is dropping fast due to the world-wide drop in prices. These reflect the discount to allow for transportation costs to the Gulf, East, or West coast.
SpaceX Dragon capsule in orbit. Photo by SpaceX released to public domain.
If you want to know why I remain so optimistic for our future even though the national political, geopolitical, and economic news is so depressing, check out the space news I’ve noticed in the last week. As Behind the Black often says, the competition is heating up.
One bit of not-so-great news. From Space.com: Video Shows SpaceX Falcon 9 Rocket Land on Droneship, Then Fall Over and Explode. The video is here. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 landed almost dead center on the drone floating 200 miles south of Vandenberg. The engine cut off which means it was landed successfully. Then one of the legs gave out, the rocket tipped over, then exploded. Preliminary guess is that something (a lockout collet?) iced over while on the launch pad.
1/14 – Behind the Black – Orbital ATK and SpaceX win Air Force contracts – ULA does not have engines for its rockets and thus must rely on Russian engines to get our military launches into space. Orbital ATK and SpaceX both have contracts to develop new engines.
The obvious story line here that gives me such encouragement is two new-on-the-scene, privately owned space companies have been called in to help the mega-contractor ULA get out of its mess.
Many more wells will be on that site when all the drilling is done. Slight flaring as photo taken by James Ulvog.
Production information was released for North Dakota yesterday. In November, production increased to 1,176,314 bopd (prelim) from 1,171,119 bopd (revised). That is an increase of 5,195 bopd, up for a second month. Percentage change is up 0.44%.
A few graphs today and a few more Monday. Here is what the state-wide and Bakken-only production looks like, along with a what-if guess based on average increases having continued.
Sort of looks like a plateau.
Here is the long-term picture of state-wide production:
