Jim Ulvog – Page 2 – Outrun Change

About that 95% effective vaccine… (part 1)

The Covid vaccination is 95% effective against infection.

That is what we were told by every public health official and media outlet in order to persuade us to get the shots.

95%.

It has been so effective we should get a booster. And another booster. And now there is a brand new fifth booster, because the previous four worked so well.

This is the first in a series of posts explaining the effectiveness statements were not only false, but were known to be false at the time.

We start with a survey of how incredibly effective the vaccine has been in 2022:

CDC director

10/31/22 – Center for Disease Control – Update on CDC Director and COVID-19 – I cannot describe this more lastingly than merely quoting the straight line offered by the CDC press release:

Remember what our so-called leaders did. Especially our religious leaders.

It is imperative we remember what our political, public health care, and education leaders did to us and our children during the Covid shutdowns. Please remember what their sycophantic worshippers in most media outlets did as well.

Remember the economic, social, and educational damage they caused.

Remember the devastation to our spiritual, physical, and emotional health.

Remember especially those religious leaders who were thrilled to close churches, stop communion, and end fellowship. Some leaders tried to minister to their flock while they reluctantly followed mandatory government dictats. Some faithful pastors decided today is not the day for prison.

Others however, were thrilled to aggressively follow every whim of political and health-sector officials whose visible desire was to shut down worship.

My family worshipped in a church where local leadership was quite pleased to shut down tight. Regional and national leadership was oh so ready to bend the knee.

Remember those religious leaders who bowed down to Caesar (first century AD), or the Emperor (1500s), or the governor (today). Also remember those whose focus was bowing to Christ instead of Caesar, the Emperor, or the governor.

(This discussion cross-posted to my other blogs because it is time to stand for religious and political freedom.)

A recent thread on Twitter compiled a partial list of what these leaders did. Please remember.

Part 1:

Bison in Theodore Roosevelt National Park

Saw lots and lots of buffalo on a visit to the north unit of Theodore Roosevelt National Park a week ago. (Yeah, yeah, they are actually American Bison, but I am still gonna’ call ’em buffalo.)

Relocation to North Dakota.

In June of this year, I moved my accounting firm to Williston, North Dakota.

My wife and I have been wanting to be near our son and his family. So the simple reason for the move is “chasing the grandkids.” It is also good to be out of California, with increasing congestion, skyrocketing cost of living, and deteriorating economy.

With the wonders of technology, I will be able to serve my clients just as easily from Williston, North Dakota as from Alta Loma, California. Only visible change on the website will be the mailing address.

“I know that my Redeemer lives.”

TheChristianhymns

Last line of this classic hymn of the faith is

Oh, the sweet joy this sentence gives,
“I know that my Redeemer lives.”

To sooth your heart, listen to the lyrics. Ponder anew the wonderful comfort of knowing your Redeemer is alive.

He is risen!

He is risen indeed!

Another rendition, with pipe organ and brass:

King of Glory Lutheran Church, ELCA – Dallas, Texas – Sanctuary Choir and Brass

He is risen! He is risen indeed!

North Stoneham and Bassett parish

Today we celebrate the most important day in the history of the world.

Easter.

We remember the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead.

On the preceding Friday, he was brutally executed by the Roman government at the insistence of the religious leaders. His sacrifice on the cross paid the penalty for sins which we earned and fully deserve.

Was that sacrifice on our behalf accepted by God the Father? Are we pardoned from our sins?

The Sunday morning resurrection proves that yes, the sacrifice by the Messiah was accepted by God the Father as payment in full for your sins and my sins.

As a result, those who have faith in His atoning death are declared free of sin (crazy as that seems, it is true). We will be welcomed into heaven to spend eternity in glory.

Praise be to God!

More ways to enjoy this glorious day:

From Steve Gibb:

Another rendition of this hymn, from Presbyterian Church of Novato with Katy Hatfield (organ), Walter Burge (vocals), & Siri Louie (vocals) on April 4, 2021.

Thanks be to God!

Response to attack on integrity of missile launch crews and reliability of our ICBM force.

Minuteman II on static display at March Air Base Museum. Photo by James Ulvog.

On 3/10/22, Mr. Cole Smith attacked the integrity of U.S. Air Force officers pulling alert across the northern plain states as they monitor their ICBMs and maintain readiness to launch in the horrible event the President were to make the decision to do so.

He also attacked the safety and reliability of the missiles and warheads with an unsupported claim that

“…there have been more near-misses than the world knows.”

His support for attacking crew integrity is citation of a drug-incident involving 11 officers in 2013 and a test-cheating scandal involving 34 officers. Those are old reports (I won’t bother looking up date of the cheating incident) and well know to all.

Support for the more near-misses claim is an accident at Little Rock Air Force Base back in 1980.

Um, that was 42 years ago.

The incident involved a Titan II ICBM. The Titans were liquid fueled. They have long since been retired with the last one pulled off alert in 1987.

Breaking technology news – Experiment to use gigantic kite to power a commercial cargo ship. Um, the Vikings perfected that technology 1000 years ago…

Some technology wizards are trying to adapt the above technology for use on modern cargo ships.
Image of Viking cargo ship courtesy of Adobe Stock.

… And the Romans had it figured out 1000 years before that.

Yet somewhere some technological wizards have developed an experiment in January to use a big kite to pull a cargo ship across the Pacific Ocean.

Gizmodo – 12/17/21 – Giant Kite Will Pull a Ship Across the Ocean Next Month – The experiment will involve a parafoil kite measuring 5,380 square feet. It will pull a ship that is 505 feet long.

As expected, legalized marijuana market is struggling with regulation and tax burden. – Part 33.

Source: Legislative Analyst’s Office, California Legislature

As I have long been predicting, the legalized marijuana industry in California is struggling. The illegal market is still dominant. Tax collections are far below projection.

Articles for your consideration today:

Legal-marijuana executives report their industry is on verge of collapse.
Tax collections fall short of projection.
Actual tax collections in state of California.

Previous articles on burdens the state of California has placed on the legalized industry can be found by clicking on the regulation experiment tag.

PJ Media – 12/18/21 – Pot Industry in California on Verge of Collapse – Entertaining opener:

“… getting the government involved in anything either makes it more expensive or ruins it completely.”

Production of crude oil in North Dakota in September 2021 has been flat for the last 14 months.

Crude oil production averaged 1,113,410 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) in September 2021.

Production has been in the range of 1.1 or 1.2 million BOPD since August 2020. Production was 1.44M BOPD back in March 2020 before the pandemic hit. Production quickly dropped to 0.9M in both May and June 2020 before climbing to around 1.1M since then.

Graph at the top of this post shows average production since January 2008. The blue line is total production in the state with the red line showing production from the Bakken pool only, which also includes the Sanish, and Three Forks pools. The blue line essentially excludes the old wells and areas which have been in production since before the current boom started in the 2008 timeframe. You can easily see the radical impact of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.

For a longer-term perspective, check out the average production in the state since 1990:

Guess what? Harsh regulations have throttled the legal marijuana market in California. Surprise! – #32

In what is an absolute lack of surprise to anyone who’s thought about the issue, the severe regulations imposed by the state of California on legal marijuana shops means the majority of marijuana sales take place in the black market.

After five years of legal recreational marijuana, sales in the illegal market are estimated to be twice the volume in legal stores.

This is the 32^nd article I have written covering the legalized recreational marijuana market. You can see my other articles by clicking on the regulation experiment tag.

Politico explains on 10/23/21: California’s legal weed industry can’t compete with illicit market.

One way to measure how severely the legal marijuana business has been restricted is to look at the number of licensed marijuana shops per 100,000 residents. For six Western states that allow recreational sales, here is the number of legal dispensaries per 100,000 people:

You cannot turn an economy off, then turn it back on. Here are the results when hubris makes you think you found the magic switch. Part 2.

Modern Cargo container ship giving an idea of the amount of cargo that can be carried. Each of those containers is one semi-load on the freeway. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Seems like most industries have a tangled supply chain. The entire transportation system is sorely distressed.

The elitists in federal and state governments have a staggering level of hubris. They think waving their hands, clicking on their laptops, issuing press releases will make the entire economy bend to their will. What they accomplish is willfully causing disruption in your life and in my life.

Here are merely a few of the recent articles describing the tangled impact of Covid dictats and sundry government policies:

Lots of cargo ships are waiting to unload off the California coast.
Large port operator expects disruptions to last into 2023.
Workers in transportation sector warn of possible system collapse.
Chip shortage for carmakers will last into late 2022.

Looks like it might take another 15 or 18 months to untangle the worldwide supply chain.

Wall Street Journal – 8/17/21 – Cargo Ships Are Again Idling Off Jammed Southern California Ports – Back in the middle of August the tally of cargo ships sitting off to coast of California was 37.

A tweet I saw this morning (10/9/21) from someone flying out of Long Beach indicated the individual counted 50 ships waiting to unload.

At around 10,000 containers per ship that is somewhere around 370,000 containers waiting to be unloaded back in the middle of August and is now currently somewhere in the range of half a million containers sitting off the coast.

Article says a few months ago it was only nine. Normally it is zero.

You cannot turn an economy off, then turn it back on. Here are the results when hubris makes you think you found the magic switch. Part 1.

Random stock outages are still common. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The supply chain in most industries is tangled up somehow somewhere.

The people in federal and state governments with the staggering level of hubris to think they can wave their hands and make the entire economy do their bidding are willfully causing disruption in your life and in my life.

What is going on around us?

I am struggling to figure out what’s going on around us in the economy. These are confusing times.

That is why I blog. Digging into news reports and statistics deep enough to write something coherent (hopefully) pushes me towards understanding. At least that’s the concept.

The next several posts I have lined up will explore some economics aspects of this confusing world.

Price of oil and value of crude oil produced in North Dakota – May 2021.

Previous post showed a graph of average daily production in North Dakota. After a record high of 1.52M barrels of oil per day (bopd) in 11/19, production dropped to a seven year low of 862K bopd in 5/20. Production recovered to1.32M bopd in 10/20 before dropping to 1.08M bopd in 2/21 and sitting at 1.12M bopd in 4/21 and 5/21.

The good news for the state is oil prices have been recovering.

Prices for North Dakota light sweet had been in the $40s to low $50s for 2019 and most of 2020 before dropping and hitting a rocket disrupted price of $9.16 in 4/20 and $7.92 and 5/20.

Prices recovered to $32.35 in 6/20 and then slowly increased to $63.62 in 6/21 and are at average of $50.50 in 7/21.

All those prices are from the North Dakota Director’s Report.

Graph at the top of this post shows the4 North Dakota Light Sweet, West Texas Intermediate, and an estimate for the average price realized in North Dakota.

What does the dramatic swing in prices combined with the dramatic swing in production look like in terms of the amount of revenue realized by producers?