Jim Ulvog – Page 37 – Outrun Change

Are you richer today than John D. Rockefeller was in 1916? The answer is, um, yes.

Would you trade your place in life today for life occupying the Gould-Guggenheim mansion when it was completed in 1912? Even if a billion dollars was tossed into the trade? Photo by Adobe Stock. — Would you trade your place in life today for life occupying the Gould-Guggenheim mansion when it was completed in 1912? Even if a billion dollars was tossed into the deal? I would not make the trade. Photo by Adobe Stock.

I suggest you are in fact richer today than John Rockefeller was 100 years ago. If it were possible for Prof. Don Boudreaux to switch places with John Rockefeller’s life and even if he could have a billion dollars after he arrived back in 1916, he would not make the switch. He would rather live as a comfortable professor today than be a billionaire 100 years ago.

I agree.

Here are three posts to explain this strange idea: first, what life was like 100 years ago, why Prof Boudreaux would not make the switch, and then why Coyote Blog wouldn’t either.

(Cross-post from Attestation Update. This post supports my conversation on ancient finances at that blog and also fits the discussion of how much life has improved over the last 200 years here.)

An article in The Atlantic on 2/11/16 describes America in 1915: Long Hours, Crowded Houses, Death by Trolley. The article is drawn from a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: The life of American workers in 1915. If you enjoy this brief discussion, I heartily recommend you read the full BLS report. It is a fun read, but then, I am an accountant.

I will update a few of the stats in the Atlantic article where the author took a shortcut. When I browsed through the BLS report, I noticed some sentences which were repeated nearly verbatim in the article, which is okay since the report is a public document.

A few highlights:

Workers in factories averaged 55 hours a week. The fatality rate across the economy was 61 deaths per 100,000 compared to about 3.3 per 100,000 today.

Continue reading “Are you richer today than John D. Rockefeller was in 1916? The answer is, um, yes.”

Continuing human suffering in Venezuela due to government policies

Shipwreck standing on the beach with the sea in the background. Margarita Island. Venezuela. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Just in case you think I’ve been too hard in my description of the devastation in Venezuela or I’ve been too blunt in laying blame for the suffering at the feet of socialism, just check out Prof. Mark Perry’s column: Venezuelan apocalypse: Some updates on the epic failure of socialism in oil-rich Venezuela.

Keep in mind this human suffering is taking place in a country that has more proven oil reserves that Saudi Arabia.

Here are a few tidbits from the article:

5/4 – Pan Am Post – Hungry Venezuelans Hunt Dogs, Cats, Pigeons at Food Runs Out – Yes, cats, dogs, and even pigeons are disappearing. As I’ve said before, it is a sign of a famine-in-progress when dogs and cats start to disappear from the streets.

5/15 – BBC News – Venezuela crisis: Maduro threatens seizure of closed factories.

I must quote the professor: Continue reading “Continuing human suffering in Venezuela due to government policies”

Oil prices edging up and OPEC won’t cap production, so how soon will shale drilling increase?

How soon do you suppose these things will again blossom on the plains of North Dakota? Photo by James Ulvog.

Oil prices are moving up and OPEC isn’t planning to do anything to hold down production. Completions appear to be slowly increasing. What price will it take for drilling to increase? Price drop has forced improvements in shale oil and the technical knowledge will not go away when drilling increases.

5/31 – Energy Media Group at Bakken.com – Oil prices set for fourth-straight monthly gain – Oil prices have been moving up slowly for several months. Currently oil is in the range of $50.

6/2 – AP at Bakken.com – OPEC states fail to reach deal on production – At the scheduled meeting on 6/2, OPEC members did not reach an agreement to cap production.

Copying a line out of an old Monty Python skit, the secretary-general insisted that OPEC isn’t dead yet.

6/1 – Daily Caller – US Fracking Poised for Comeback, OPEC Continues to Flounder – Speculation of different people is fracking to take off again when oil is above $50, others think it will take around $60 for sustained increase in drilling.

Continue reading “Oil prices edging up and OPEC won’t cap production, so how soon will shale drilling increase?”

Guesses on long term impact of shale revolution

Just one of many thousands of reasons OPEC is in distress. Photo by James Ulvog.

A guess on what price will keep the shale revolution going in the very short-term. Background discussions of the impact from the shale revolution: cheap oil era is upon us, oil prices won’t hit $100 again, and OPEC has lost its pricing power. Interview with Daniel Yergin is a must read.

4/28 – The Million Dollar Way – Lifeline for Oil Companies – Here is a guess on the framework for oil pricing, courtesy of Rigzone:

$40 – lifeline for US shale oil
$50 – most shale companies survive
$60 – all thrive

5/4 – Reuters at Dickingson Press – DUCs in a row: Oilfield servicers to gain as more wells completed – Halliburton and Baker Hughes expect a number of Drilled but UnCompleted wells (DUC) to be fracked now that prices have recovered somewhat. They expect the gross number of DUCs to decline.

5/3 – Scientific American – The Age of Cheap Oil and Natural Gas is Just Beginning – Authors see two revolutions that will continue to spread.

Continue reading “Guesses on long term impact of shale revolution”

How much has our economic wellbeing improved from that our of distant ancestors?

A view of economic progress. Ponder the productivity improvement and resulting increase in wealth to go from this:

To this:

The overall standard of living has increased by a factor of somewhere between 30 and 100 in the last 200 years.

The little side trip in this post and the next will lead me back to my discussion of ancient finances in general and Alexander’s haul from his military campaigns in particular.

(This is a cross-post from my other blog, Attestation Update. It is part of a series of posts discussing ancient finances, with a focus on the loot taken by Alexander the Great during his military campaign. This particular post is pertinent to this blog, so I will bring it here. The remaining conversation on Alexander’s haul will remain at the other blog, since that is where I talk about finance. You can find the discussion here.)

Writing in Bourgeios Equality: How Ideas, Not Capital or Institutions, Enriched the World, Professor Deirdre McCloskey says it this way:

..in the two centuries after 1800 the trade-tested goods and services available to the average person in Sweden or Taiwan rose by a factor of 30 or 100. Not 100 percent, understand— a mere doubling— but in its highest estimate a factor of 100, nearly 10,000 percent, and at least a factor of 30, or 2,900 percent. The Great Enrichment of the past two centuries has dwarfed any of the previous and temporary enrichments.

Let me phrase that another way. The value of what is enjoyed today by an average person is roughly equal to what 30 or 100 people had two centuries ago. That means the constant dollar value of what is consumed and enjoyed has grown by a factor of somewhere between 30 and 100.

Continue reading “How much has our economic wellbeing improved from that our of distant ancestors?”

This is what the lack of freedom looks like

The cost of freedom. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

This freedom stuff is not just some abstract concept. The lack of economic, political, or religious freedom is ugly and painful.

If you want to see what the lack of economic and political freedom looks like, consider Venezuela today.

5/20 – Yahoo News – Venezuela, where a hamburger is officially $170 – That hamburger priced at 1,700 bolivars is US$170 at the official exchange rate. At black market exchange rates it is about a buck and a half.

Article reports that the middle class is sliding into poverty. Keep in mind people are essentially paid at the official exchange rate.

Stores that sell anything other than food are closed. Article says nobody is buying anything other than food.

What is going on in Venezuela?

5/28 – New York Times – Venezuela Drifts Into New territory: Hunger, Blackouts and Government Shutdown – The New York Times notices the devastation afflicting the people of Venezuela.

Government offices are only open two half-days each week.

Article says protests at empty grocery stores are turning violent.

The bottler producing Coca-cola products cannot find sugar so it is halting production.

Other suffering this article doesn’t mention:

No toilet paper on the grocery store shelf and no international phone service.

The country’s largest beer producer can’t get enough foreign currency to buy hops so it has stopped making beer.

Water is rationed.

Electricity is only available sometimes and randomly at that.

Infants are dying in hospitals because of lack of medicine and respirators.

Back to the NYT article.

When water is on, people are gathering some in spare buckets for use later. The water (when available) is brownish and is making members of one quoted family sick. Many people say either lack of washing or the water itself is causing illness.

What is the cause of this suffering?

Continue reading “This is what the lack of freedom looks like”

To all those serving in the American military or who have served

I was on active duty in the U.S. Air Force a mere four years. I never got within 3,000 miles of hostile action against American forces. To top it off, my small contribution was decades ago.

As a result, I am squeamishly uncomfortable accepting the appreciation when someone tells me “Thanks for your service.”

It took me a few years to get to a place where I could accept those comments.

I now graciously and proudly accept those expressions of appreciation from my fellow Americans, not because of what I did so long ago, but on behalf of all those soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen who do not have someone looking them in the eye, shaking their hand, and saying “thanks.”

So for all those troops pulling alerts, standing watch, scheduling logistics, or taking fire, please know that vast numbers of Americans are grateful for your service.

I pass on to you their thanks.

You are there, not here, so many people have thanked me instead. It is you they are really thanking.

While today we remember with gratitude those who did not return, I hope those who are serving today hear the appreciation.

More amazing things on the open frontier of technology

A few fun things I’ve seen lately. Amazon announces it will soon open its 9th fulfillment center in California. Astounding video quality on a GIF presentation is close to photo quality.

3/15 – Behind the Black – Check out this animated video. Consider the question raised by Behind the Black – with this quality of animation, how soon until human actors aren’t needed because an apparently live action movie can be 100% animated?

[youtube=https://youtu.be/nPrWo5pEvyk]

As I mention the following two articles, ponder that I ordered something from Amazon early in the evening yesterday. It shipped this morning and will be delivered today.

Update: I ordered the items after 5 and they were delivered by 10 the next morning. Evening order, next morning delivery. Very cool.

3/30 – DailyBulletin (Inland Empire area of LA) – New Amazon fulfillment center coming to San Bernardino, to add 1,000-plus jobs – This will be the seventh facility in California. San Bernardino is about 60 miles east of downtown LA. Amazon locations in the state: Continue reading “More amazing things on the open frontier of technology”

More news on the environmental and ecological damage caused by unreliable renewables.

FWS proposes to allow 4,200 incidental takings (that means killing them) of the above bird each year. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

The bad news just keeps rolling in on how much damage is caused by wind and solar power. An update on the proposal to allow wind projects to kill off a bunch of eagles, more followup on an Ivanpah tower starting itself on fire, and negative electricity prices in Germany.

5/15 – Robert Bryce at Wall Street Journal – An Ill Wind: Open Season on Bald Eagles / Sacrificing 4,200 of the birds a year for green energy sounds fine to regulators.

Proposed rule will extend to 30 years from 5 years the amount of time that wind farm operators are allowed to kill eagles. This will allow taking out up to 4,200 bald eagles a year out of the estimated 72,400 living in the US today.

Continue reading “More news on the environmental and ecological damage caused by unreliable renewables.”

Ivanpah wing toasting facility toasts Ivanpah wing toasting facility

Ivanpah facility toasted itself instead of birds on Thursday. Photo by James Ulvog.

The solar facility that typically sets birds on fire scored itself big time on Thursday.

One of the solar collecting towers at Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System had a fire about two-thirds of the way up the tower. Early reports indicate some of the garage-door sized mirrors were misaligned and focused the searing heat on the middle part of tower instead of the collector. The heat reportedly started a number of electrical cables on fire.

The solar generator set itself on fire instead of setting birds on fire which generates visible streamers. Those are birds started on fire and falling to the ground streaming smoke.

Continue reading “Ivanpah wing toasting facility toasts Ivanpah wing toasting facility”

Explanations for the collapsing Venezuelan economy that avoid the actual cause – 7

As the level of massive, avoidable, preventable, yet fully predictable suffering expands without end, we see two new explanations for the suffering.

5/18 – Daily Mail – No electricity, no antibiotics, no beds, no soap: A devastating look inside Venezuela’s crisis-hit hospitals where 7 babies die a day, bleeding patients lie strewn on the floor, and doctors try to operate without tools. Hospitals have minimal electricity, no soap, no antibiotics, no gloves, no x-rays.

Even The Guardian is seeing horrid problems in the socialist paradise. Yes, The Guardian!

5/18 – The Guardian – Venezuelans on the food and economic crisis blighting their daily lives / Food shortages and soaring black market prices are making life a misery for people across the country – One person says that essentially every grocery store in Caracas has hundreds of people in line every day.

One woman says she has not been able to buy milk, sugar, or corn flour in about the last five months. Toilet paper, soap, and deodorant are very difficult to find as well, she said.

Article tells of supply trucks on their way to a grocery store being looted. There are 107 episodes of looting reported so far in 2016.

Article says many people are spending all their time trying to find food in the stores.

Update: 5/20 – Fortune – Coke Has Suspended All Production in Venezuela – The lack of sugar has led Coca-Cola FENSA to suspend production of all products in Venezuela. Article says this is the largest individual bottler in the world.

This follows the Polar Group, the largest beverage and food company in the country shutting down production of beer a month ago.

What caused this horrible humanitarian disaster? Here are two new explanations.

We finally know what caused all the suffering

1.It’s the fault of the political opposition

Aha! The Associated Press finally explains the cause of the economic collapse. It is the fault of the opposition political party creating a political standoff. They made this mess, not the current government.

Continue reading “Explanations for the collapsing Venezuelan economy that avoid the actual cause – 7”

Convicted human trafficker Keith Graves has been moved to a federal penitentiary

Long-term housing for Mr. Graves. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

The Bureau of Prisons inmate locator page reports that Keith A. Graves is now in custody at Victorville Medium I Federal Correctional Institution, located in Victorville, California.

Update 7-19-16: for future reference, his inmate number is 13523-059. His middle initial is A, for Alexander. Age 40 as of summer 2016.

Update 10-23-18: Mr. Graves is still at Victorville Medium I FCI with an unchanged release date of 12/24/2043. Just 25 years and a couple months to go. His current age is 42, which means he will be 67 years old on his scheduled release date.

I’m not quite sure I understand why he would be at a medium security prison. I obviously don’t understand these things, but seems to me that a drug distribution conviction and five trafficking convictions would land him in a higher security facility.

Continue reading “Convicted human trafficker Keith Graves has been moved to a federal penitentiary”

Update on major changes in Saudi Arabia

6 pumpjacks in Sept. '15 about ready to get working. Photo by James Ulvog. — 6 pumpjacks in Sept. ’15 about ready to get working. Photo by James Ulvog.

Lots of transitions going on in the oil industry, particularly Saudi Arabia. I have a bunch of articles to discuss on energy. Will try to get caught up.

5/15 – Daniel Yergin at Wall Street Journal – Where Oil Prices Go From Here / With political change in Saudi Arabia and the market rebalancing, look for $50 a barrel by the fall – I have learned that one should read anything written by Mr. Yergin. No, I haven’t taken on the task of reading his 900+ page books. That’s on my to-do list.

After having fallen from a high of $100 a barrel in 2014 to $26 in February 2016, prices have recovered to the mid or upper $40s.

Mr. Yergin predicts production and demand will balance this year and prices will rise to around $50.

Continue reading “Update on major changes in Saudi Arabia”

Venezuela continues slide into chaos – 6

Things are bad and likely to get far worse for the people living in Venezuela. More reports of looting are appearing in news stories. Read between the lines on the comment from a mayor who says that dogs and cats are disappearing from the streets.

5/14 – Zero Hedge – Scenes From the Venezuela Apocalypse: “Countless Wounded” After 5,000 Loot Supermarket Looking for Food – Opening photo shows over 100 soldiers (by my count) holding back a huge crowd on a street.

Article reports on several specific stores being looted with comments there have been many more in the last two weeks. There is so little food and when available it is expensive. More people are slipping into severe hunger. Widespread looting is the expected next step in the collapse of the country.

The mayor of Chacao in Caracas said the cats and dogs in the city are disappearing. Pigeons as well. That is traditionally a sign of famine.

5/13 – Reuters – U.S. concern grows over possible Venezuela meltdown – officials – Continue reading “Venezuela continues slide into chaos – 6”

North Dakota oil production drops 0.9% in March ‘16

Production in the state dropped from 1,119,092 barrels a day (revised) in February to 1,109,246 bopd in March. That is a drop of 9,846 bopd, or 0.88%.

That represents a decline of 102,084 bopd since the high point of 1,211,330 in June 2015. That is a 8.4% decline.

Rig count averaged 32 in March and 29 in April. That is in contrast to 78 in June 2015 and 193 in March 2014.

Here is what the production graph looks like. This is the only graph I will run this month.