Author: Jim Ulvog

Risk of harm is bad. Certainty of harm is good. The disconnect in assessing risks of getting the energy we need.

Sometimes you just have to scratch your head wondering about the fantasmagorical world inhabited by some regulators. A good dose of ridicule might bring them back to earth, but the chances are small. I’ll give it a try anyway.

1/14 – ReWire – Report: Fracking Imperils Southern California Residents, Wildlife – A report from the California Department of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources concluded that any fracking in three specific oil fields in the state would have

“significant and unavoidable” environmental damage”.

There would be significant risk of damage to:

  • Air quality
  • Wildlife
  • Public and worker safety
  • Increased greenhouse emissions
  • recreational use of surrounding lands
  • transportation and traffic problems

This, in a state that is building wind turbines as fast as the rare earth minerals can be mined and the concrete can be poured to get the slice-and-dice blades spinning.

This, in a state that has a huge solar plant that is killing unknown and intentionally undercounted numbers of protected & migratory birds and wants to build many more such wing-toaster facilities.

Continue reading “Risk of harm is bad. Certainty of harm is good. The disconnect in assessing risks of getting the energy we need.”

First results on marijuana tax collections in Colorado – #14

Legalization of marijuana is a natural experiment in how a newly-legal market responds to heavy regulation. First results are in on tax revenue harvested by Colorado. (lousy pun intended)

2/11 – AP at ABCNews – Colorado’s Pot Tax Tally Has Lessons for Other States – Report is in on how much tax revenue was realized from recreational marijuana.

Results? Continue reading “First results on marijuana tax collections in Colorado – #14”

More info on the triggers for drop in ND oil tax rate

There are two triggers for dropping the tax on oil in North Dakota. These were put in place back in 1987 to encourage production. With the dramatic drop in oil prices, these two triggers are now of interest.

2/5 – Reuters – Clock starts ticking on $5.3 bln tax break for North Dakota oil – Continue reading “More info on the triggers for drop in ND oil tax rate”

Silk Road: Felony conviction in a world far away

I’ve previously discussed Silk Road as one of the worlds far away from me that I’ll never visit. Learning about stuff is why I’m writing this blog.

Last week Ross Ulbricht was convicted of multiple felonies for his role in running Silk Road, a place where you could buy all sorts of illegal stuff.

Some recent articles that help me better understand this bizarre alternate universe.

Continue reading “Silk Road: Felony conviction in a world far away”

Does anything exist beyond what I can see with my own eyes? “The Overnighters” as an illustration.

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(Lousy photos by James Ulvog of a man camp. This small facility is in a small city between Williston and Minot. There are a lot of these man camps around Western North Dakota that provide basic sleeping and dining facilities. They are all full. Sorry I don’t have pictures of the many that I’ve seen which are far larger than this one.)

 

Just one aspect of the brilliance of Jesse Moss’s movie “The Overnighters” is that the nuance and subtlety in it creates a springboard for so many discussions. It also serves as a Rorschach test to reveal the worldview of those watching the movie.

One core question forces its way into view after looking at reactions by viewers. A few ways to describe the issue:

  • Does anything exist beyond the limit of my vision?
  • Is there anything more to a story than what a camera can see? Beyond what people say when the camera is running?
  • Is there more to know about any issue than what a movie can cover in 102 minutes?

From reactions to the movie, many people believe the answer to those questions is a resounding “no.”

Continue reading “Does anything exist beyond what I can see with my own eyes? “The Overnighters” as an illustration.”

About those dropping oil prices – #13

More articles on the drop in oil prices I found interesting.

Huge news Wednesday, 2/4, as oil collapsed big time dropping from about 53.50 to 48.50. Oh my, a $5 drop in just one day. Obviously gonna’ break the $40 mark this month, huh?

Oh wait.

Up 2.50 yesterday and another dollar as I write this morning.

Reminds me of the old joke on the days’ news about the stock market:  Stock market was off 500 points today before rallying and closing up 1 and a quarter.

1/24 – The Economist – The tough get going – Companies in the energy field are working to improve their economics.

Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – #13”

My favorite lines from movie “The Overnighters”. Some disclosures.

“I will not give in to despair because hopeless should never win and hopeless is a lie.”

Former pastor Jay Reinke, as the Overnighters program shuts down.

I agree. Hopeless is a lie. Despair is a lie.

“The problem is we’re working with sinners and some people are fearful.”

Andrea Reinke, as the family discusses complications of helping someone who is a registered sex offender.

Those are two of my favorite lines from the movie “The Overnighters”, which I watched for the second time last night.

Feet of clay

As Mrs. Reinke pointed out, everyone you will ever deal with is a sinner.

That concept has lots of implications. The movie does a superb job illustrating that concept. Consider:

Price cut on print books

I’ve dropped the prices for the print copies of my books available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and iTunes store.

Here is what you can find on-line:

tragedy-cover

 Tragedy of Fraud – Insider Trading Edition

Story of Scott London’s fall from regional audit partner at KPMG to prison inmate because of his insider trading.

Continue reading “Price cut on print books”

“The Overnighters” movie available now

A movie about the oil boom in North Dakota, the impact in Williston, and how that played out in one church is now available at Amazon. I preordered a copy and it is downloading as I write.

Have been looking forward to seeing it a second time. I knew the story, particularly the ending, before seeing the movie the first time. Now I can watch the movie knowing how the movie presented the story.

Will have more to say about the movie after I watch it another time or two.

Continue reading ““The Overnighters” movie available now”

The change from Apps is just getting started. (Radical change #3)

Another part of my effort to explain that while I see radical change on the horizon in other areas, I have a blind spot how those things will affect auditing.

1/19 – Mark Mills at Forbes – The Mobile Revolution Has Only Just Begun – Look again at the radical change in the last century:

Not only have radios become cheap but they’ve collapsed in size while rising in capability. A trailer-pulled radio that weighed one ton in WWI is now a chipset weighing a fraction of an ounce buried inside a smartphone that can handle one million-fold more traffic than those first Marconis.

Combine that with a computer the size of a phone and you have a smart phone.

Continue reading “The change from Apps is just getting started. (Radical change #3)”

Wind and solar not viable without massive direct subsidies

The only way that wing-toaster and slice-and-dice power plants are economically viable is with massive federal subsidies. They just can’t proceed without heavy taxpayer funding.  Here are a few of the recent articles I’ve seen making that point:

1/23 – ReWire – Developer Won’t Build Controversial Solar Plant Without Tax Incentives–

Continue reading “Wind and solar not viable without massive direct subsidies”

Digital currencies are radical change on the horizon for banking and credit cards. (Radical change #2)

There is radical change all around us and more on the way. I know that. My blind spot is figuring out how that will affect my audit firm.

Here’s one part of radical change I can see on the horizon:

1-24 – Wall Street Journal – Bitcoin and the Digital-Currency Revolution / For all bitcoin’s growing pains, it represents the future of money and global finance.– For a brain stretcher on digital currency, check out the article. Focus is on Bitcoin, which is merely the starting point in a revolution of disintermediation.

Just like money funds disintermediated (that means cut out of the picture) bank deposits in the distant ‘80s, bitcoin and other yet-to-be-invented digital currencies will disintermediate a huge portion of the financial system.

Picture the long series of transactions when you buy a cup of coffee at the corner shop with your credit card (this is a long quote cited under fair use, oh, also to promote the book it is extracted from): Continue reading “Digital currencies are radical change on the horizon for banking and credit cards. (Radical change #2)”

More about the price war in oil – #12

A few more articles about the global price war underway in the crude oil market. My guess? This will not turn out as well for OPEC as OPEC expected.

A commenter at Million Dollar Way has some optimistic contrarian thoughts: A Reader’s Perspective on the Bakken in the Face of Plummeting Oil Prices.   Gloomsters are apparently starting to think the N.D. economy will collapse. For a few contrarian ideas, consider the following:

  • Projects underway include two fertilizer plants and a huge plastics plant.
  • Catch-up work for infrastructure is a $1B, yes billion, to do list.
  • Oilfield workers are very flexible and highly productive. They could start a new job in a new industry tomorrow morning and be quite productive by lunch. (Application: there could be a good supply of workers available in the next few months to start immediately on that $1B construction backlog.)
  • Innovation and investing isn’t going to stop for a minute.

My biased, wild guess? After OPEC blinks and prices go up a fair amount, North Dakota will be stronger than in mid 2014. I don’t think that is what the various oil ministers are betting on.

1/16 – Forbes – When Will The Price of Oil Hit Bottom? The Market is Looking at the Wrong Number – Continue reading “More about the price war in oil – #12”

I get the concept of radical changes in our near future. I am blind to see how it will affect my business. (Radical change #1)

We are in the midst of radical change. I’m writing this blog (Outrun Change) to sort out the change around us.

I get it in terms of tech change obliterating newspaper want ads, count of first class mail pieces for the Post Office, and devastation to bookstores (remember Borders?).

I totally get the concept that you can be your own book publisher with a cost of under $200 per title if you have the skill to use Adobe Acrobat along with Microsoft Excel and Word. Major publishers are dinosaurs.

Running your own digital publishing company? Been there. Done that. Three times. And publishing the Nook version is literally one extra click, one click, in the on-line production cycle.

Continue reading “I get the concept of radical changes in our near future. I am blind to see how it will affect my business. (Radical change #1)”

About those dropping oil prices – #11

Here’s the rest of the energy articles I’ve been wanting to catch up on. Have a few articles discussing the price war that will be posted next week.

1/6 – Shale Plays Media at Bakken.Com – “The American Moment”: API president delivers the 2015 State of American Energy – API calls today

… “The American Moment” where the current state of abundance and global leadership is something no one would have predicted just a few years ago.  “This unique American moment is the result primarily of American ingenuity and technological advancements in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling.” He noted that the United States is expected to soon become the number one producer in oil production, and some believe we already are.

The lights are not about to go out and we aren’t out of either oil or natural gas: Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – #11”