Economics – Page 9 – Outrun Change

Peak oil doctrine is still false. Please point out to me on my graph the irreversible decline in production after 1970. #45

An article explaining why Peak Oilers are in hiding prompted me to graph worldwide oil production.

Peak Oil doctrine was wrong when announced by Dr. Hubbert. It was wrong at the turn of the century before the energy revolution was kicked off by technology that was unimaginable 50 years ago. Peak Oil doctrine is still wrong. It will continue to be wrong.

Check out my graph to see a visual explanation of the foolishness.

1/21 – Hit and Run blog at Reason – Where Have All the Peak Oilers Gone? – Article points out that four of the most visible Peak Oilers are in hiding. Another one of them is still speaking out. In addition, he wrote a new forward in 2010 to his 2007 book proclaiming yet again oil production will go into an irreversible, inevitable slide.

Two data points that provide more proof of the foolishness of Peak Oil doctrine: Continue reading “Peak oil doctrine is still false. Please point out to me on my graph the irreversible decline in production after 1970. #45”

Suffering increases in Venezuela, all as a result of official government policies – 2

Shipwreck standing on the beach with the sea in the background. Margarita Island. Venezuela. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

The level of suffering in Venezuela is increasing. All of the blame for the current and future suffering can be laid at the feet of the socialist government.

Previously mentioned Venezuela is in the early stages of hyperinflation: Instead of reading about hyperinflation and economic collapse in history, you can watch it play out live. Tune in to Venezuela.

Some more discussion on the increased suffering:

2/6 – The Economist – The endgame in Venezuela – A few stats from the article:

Government acknowledges that for the 12 months ending 9/2015, inflation was 141% and the economy shrank 7.1%.

Continue reading “Suffering increases in Venezuela, all as a result of official government policies – 2”

Visual illustration of energy foolishness

I just learned that Robert Wilson (@CountCarbon) does a huge amount of graphing. (Yeah, yeah, I’m slow to catch up with what’s happening. On the other hand, keeping up with change is the purpose of this blog.)

Here are two of his illustrations that shows the utter foolishness of two specific energy policies: ethanol and solar power.

Ethanol

Question along with graph to help figure out your answer:

Question: Would corn be better used to feed people than cars?

Continue reading “Visual illustration of energy foolishness”

Instead of reading about hyperinflation and economic collapse in history, you can watch it play out live. Tune in to Venezuela. – 1

ten trillion Zimbabwe dollars. Not the largest currency in circulation, but close. — Ten trillion Zimbabwe dollars. Not the largest currency in circulation, but close. Tragedy of hyperinflation is playing out again, this time in Venezuela.

The hyperinflation in Zimbabwe resulted in a ten trillion Zim note being worth four cents in American dollars. That would be:

Zim$10,000,000,000,000 = US$.04

When that level of financial devastation happens, it is the result of government policy. Usually socialists pull it off, but German also did so before WWII.

6/30/15 – This is what hyperinflation looks like
8/20/15 – Follow up on Zimbabwe hyperinflation – Government introduces coins for making change

Venezuela

If you are so interested, you can now watch the sad story as it plays out in Venezuela.

2/3 – Wall Street Journal – Inflation-Wrought Venezuela Orders Bank Notes by the Planeload – Usually governments deal with out-of-control inflation by adding two or three zeros to the currency. Instead of the largest bill in circulation being a 100 unit note, the next run of currency is for a 10,000 unit note. In six months or a year there will be a 500,000 or 1,000,000 note in circulation.

Article says the Venezuelan government isn’t doing that because to do so would acknowledge the astronomical inflation. As the saying goes, denial isn’t just a river in Egypt.

Instead of acknowledging that inflation is running out of control, the government of Venezuela is flooding the economy with the same denomination note. In the last several months of 2014, the article says there were three dozen flights of 747s into the country hauling nothing but currency. Over 30 cargo holds filled with currency.

Continue reading “Instead of reading about hyperinflation and economic collapse in history, you can watch it play out live. Tune in to Venezuela. – 1”

Which group pays more in individual income taxes? The top 1% of earners of the bottom 95%?

If you guessed the bottom 95%, you would be right.

Follow-up question: What is the spread between the percentage of taxes paid by each group?

What do you think it is? A multiple? Something like double or triple what the 1% pays?

Maybe just a percentage more? 30%, 50%, 60%?

Actually the spread is thin.

Check out the following graph:

Used with permission of Prof. Mark Perry at Carpe Diem.

Continue reading “Which group pays more in individual income taxes? The top 1% of earners of the bottom 95%?”

More on the high cost of low capacity from wind power

Photo by James Ulvog. — Out of focus photo by James Ulvog.

One of several catastrophic obstacles to relying on wind power to generate a large portion of our electricity is that wind turbines only generate electricity when the wind is blowing. That makes wind power quite unreliable.

Diving further into that issue shows that the wind blows more in some months more than others and this variable capacity further varies by region.

Why is this an issue? Electricity must be generated at the instant it is needed (allowing for the time it takes for electricity to get from the generating source to your house). It cannot be stored.

Variability over the course of a year

Check out the following graph from the Energy Information Administration:

That graph, which can be found here, is in the public domain since it is government information. It shows that on average across the country during the course of a year wind facilities have an average capacity of about 32%.

Continue reading “More on the high cost of low capacity from wind power”

Why I am so optimistic – 3

The future is so bright we need sunglasses. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

The number of people working in manufacturing has been declining for many years. Those job losses will continue at the same time as technology disrupts other industries causing the loss of more jobs.

This is not a new concept. Technological advances have devastated farm employment over the last 150 years.

(Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

Prof. Thomas Tunstall pondered Where the New Jobs Will Come From. Sub headline on his 11/4/15 article said:

In 2007 iPhone application developers didn’t exist. By 2011 Apple had $15 billion in mobile-app revenues.

Consider the percentage of the population employed in agriculture over time: Continue reading “Why I am so optimistic – 3”

Why I am so optimistic – 2

200 years ago subsistence agriculture was the norm across the planet. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com — 200 years ago brutal poverty was the norm across the planet. Not so today. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Previously mentioned when I look at long-term economic trends I am incredibly optimistic. When I look at the headlines this morning or news from the political world, I am very discouraged.

(Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

To see one illustration of why I am so optimistic for the long-term, check out a column by Glenn Reynolds at USA Today: Actually, things are pretty good / Free markets and free inquiry have changed the historic ‘norms’ of poverty and violence.

Earlier post summarized in one paragraph what caused this radical improvement.

Here are a final two points from the article I’d like to highlight:

Second, it is possible for us collectively to turn back history.

Continue reading “Why I am so optimistic – 2”

Why I am so optimistic – 1

When I look at the political news or any news in general I get very pessimistic about our future.

In contrast, when I look at the amazing things happening beyond the headlines in today’s newspaper I feel incredibly optimistic.

Consider that private companies are developing the technology for space exploration. Consider the energy revolution created by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Consider radical changes in technology that are making so many things easier, faster, and cheaper. Consider that anyone that wants to do so can publish their own book, distribute their own music, or create a feature movie.

As a tiny illustration, look at my company and pastimes. Technology allows me to run a high quality CPA practice without any staff. In my spare time I am a publisher and journalist. Anyone in Europe or North America or most of Asia could easily do the same and at minimal cost.

(Cross post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

When I look at long-term economic trends I am incredibly optimistic.

For yet one more explanation of why that is the case, consider a column by Glenn Reynolds at USA Today: Actually, things are pretty good / Free markets and free inquiry have changed the historic ‘norms’ of poverty and violence.

Until relatively recently, an illness-filled short life of dirt-eating poverty was the normal condition for practically everybody on the planet. In the last 100 or 200 years life has gotten radically better for practically everyone.

Continue reading “Why I am so optimistic – 1”

Intentional federal policies extended Great Depression by seven years

Hunger sculpture at FRR Memorial in Washington DC. How much earlier could hunger have ended with different policies? Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com. — Hunger sculpture at FDR Memorial in Washington DC. A monument to the man whose policies added extra years to the Depression yet who rarely gets credit for the unnecessary suffering. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com.

An extra seven years.

That is the conclusion two economists published back in 2004: intentional policies from FDR added seven years of suffering for the country.

Yes, that analysis was published back in 2004. Sometimes it takes me a while to catch up on the news.

On 8/10/04 the UCLA Newsroom published FDR’s policies prolonged Depression by seven years, UCLA economists calculate.

Cause

The cause of extending the Great Depression, according to the economists, was the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) which protected industries from antitrust prosecution in return for adopting collective bargaining agreements. The result was unions drove up wages beyond where the market would have set them, companies were intentionally not prosecuted for collusion, thus companies cooperated in setting prices, which in turn drove up prices to consumers. As a result consumers had much more difficulty affording stuff and therefore actually bought less stuff, which further contracted the economy.

(cross-post from my other blog, Freedom is Moral.)

Continue reading “Intentional federal policies extended Great Depression by seven years”

“Corruption Is Just a Symptom, Not the Disease”

Professors Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson explain Corruption Is Just a Symptom, Not the Disease / To end global poverty, stop tolerating national institutions that serve greedy elites and suck poor countries dry, on 12/5 in the Wall Street Journal.

Corruption is the highly visible symptom of much deeper issues.

The real problem?

The lack of an operating justice system. The lack of accountability. The lack of a free press that can actually get away with challenging those in power – that means reporters don’t get beat up, thrown in jail, or killed when they irritate political leaders.

Continue reading ““Corruption Is Just a Symptom, Not the Disease””

Everyone everywhere has gotten far richer in the last 200 years. Hmm. I wonder how that happened?

After you celebrate that the average level of income has increased radically in the last 200 years, ponder how that happened.

10/18 – Max Roser – Economic World History in One Chart – Mr. Roser is superb with data visualization. Tweet from Max Roser ?@MaxCRoser :

Economic world history:
1800 Poor & equal
1970 Unequal
2000 Much richer & more equal again.

Click here to see the very cool graph. Keep in mind it is on a logarithm scale, roughly meaning that each marked increment on the horizontal axis is an increase of 50% or 100%.

Continue reading “Everyone everywhere has gotten far richer in the last 200 years. Hmm. I wonder how that happened?”

Do you really want to give up your freedom and become a serf?

What could possibly go wrong with giving a leader the power to fix all our problems? There is a great chance said leader will use that power to force people to fix things. You could wind up being told in microscopic detail every single thing you can do.

That would merely cost you your freedom and make you a serf.

In musical terms, that might be called, oh, perhaps something like Serfdom USA:

[youtube=https://youtu.be/JoDcM0bH8AY]

Continue reading “Do you really want to give up your freedom and become a serf?”

More comments from winner of this year’s Nobel award in economics

Cover of Prof. Deaton's book, used under fair use, courtesy of Amazon.com — Cover of Prof. Deaton’s book, used under fair use for this review, courtesy of Amazon.com

Prof. Angus Deaton won the 2015 Nobel award in economics. Mentioned this earlier.

His contribution to expanding the frontier of economics knowledge is to study development and poverty from the consumption side instead of income side. This approach looks at what can people buy instead of what income they have.

Fun article talking about some of his ideas was in the Financial Times on October 12: Nobel Prize winner Angus Deaton shares 3 big ideas.

Inequality

Continue reading “More comments from winner of this year’s Nobel award in economics”

Bakken update – Williston considers driving up housing prices. Heat caused 2 derailments in Montana.

Mancamp near Stanley. Photo by James Ulvog.

City of Williston may likely vote this week to close all man camps within their jurisdiction. Dramatically reducing supply of housing will have the obvious impact of driving up prices. Keep in mind that is a choice of the local government.

Heat is what caused two derailments in Montana back in July. Not the oil that was on board.

Major construction work on Main street is finished.

11/6 – Amy Dalrymple at Dickinson Press – Oil backers push to keep crew camps as decision looms for Williston

Continue reading “Bakken update – Williston considers driving up housing prices. Heat caused 2 derailments in Montana.”