Energy – Page 12 – Outrun Change

Oil production in North Dakota barely drops in February 2016

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ks2ua4imgU]

Average daily production dropped to 1,118,333 bopd (Prelim) in February from 1,122,462 (revised +352 bopd) in January. That is a mere 4,129 bopd decline, or 0.37%.

Here are a few graphs to paint the story. First average monthly production from 2008 through February 2016 showing total for the state and Bakken field only. Included in that graph is a pro forma of what production would have been (based on my wild guess) if the production increased after the winter at the average rate of increase over the preceding 24 months.

Second graph is average production in the state since 1990. Finally, to show the change since 2010 more dramatically is a graph of production since 2004.

two more follow:

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Oil market – Update on Saudi Arabia

Ras Tanura oil terminal, Saudi Arabia. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

I have a backlog of energy articles to discuss. Will start posting some of them, starting with the precarious position of Saudi Arabia.

3/29 – Financial Times (I think) at RT.com – Saudi Arabia loses oil market share in key countries – Russia and Iran are pricing and marketing aggressively around the world. So much so that Saudi Arabia has dropped back from the largest exporter in nine out of the 15 largest markets. That loss has taken place over the last three years.

4/12 – AP at Bakken.com – Weak oil prices prompt Fitch to cut Saudi Arabia’s rating – Continue reading “Oil market – Update on Saudi Arabia”

How easily can US shale oil bounce back?

Will we see bunches of those soon? Yes, no, maybe so.

Will production of shale oil recover as oil prices rise? I’ve seen several articles discussing whether that can or will happen. Three articles saying yes, no, and maybe so.

Yes.

2/29 – Reuters at CNBC – US shale’s message for OPEC: Above $40, we are coming back – Multiple comments indicate that $40 oil today is like $70 oil a year ago.

Continental Resources says will start drilling if US crude increases to mid $40 range. Whiting Petroleum will start completing DUC wells if oil is in the low 40s. A year ago comments were that companies would start increasing the drilling if oil hit $70.

Article says Hess reduced the cost of a new well by 28% over the last year.

EOG says they have these rights for 3,200 wells which would produce a rate of return of 30% when oil is at $40.

Implication of these comments is shale production would likely ramp up when prices move into the 40s, perhaps more likely the high 40s. That would create substantial pressure on worldwide oil prices, keeping them from rising too far.

No.

3/15 – Wall Street Journal – Many Shale Companies Are Unable to Ramp Up Oil Output – Article raises a great point that just as output from shale oil has fallen slower than anyone expected, there are different reasons that shale producers may be challenged to ramp up production when prices increase.

Continue reading “How easily can US shale oil bounce back?”

Continued drop in count of working oil rigs in North Dakota

Here is a recap of the North Dakota rig count, all from Million Dollar Way. Also, an article quantifying the impact on employment from the drop in rig count.

Some older data repeated for recent context: Continue reading “Continued drop in count of working oil rigs in North Dakota”

Update on OPEC strategy

Fascinating to watch news in February about OPEC’s strategy. First, IEA sees a drop of US shale oil in 2016 and 2017 with strong growth in output over the following four years.

I have quite a backlog of lot of articles on energy to discuss. Will try to get caught up. Here goes…

Article at the end of January indicated OPEC is publicly claiming things are going swimmingly well. Then Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to freeze their production at the January level, which is near record level of output for both countries. Then the end of February OPEC’s secretary-general acknowledged that the intentional goal was to wage a price war against US shale. Also acknowledged the price war hasn’t worked like they planned.

I don’t think that crippling the Russian, Saudi Arabian, and Venezuelan national budgets by dropping prices about 60% with no near-term expectation of recovery is quite what they had in mind.

2/22 – IEA sees oil market rebalancing in 2017; US production at record high by 2021 – The IEA forecasts that US production of light tight oil will fall 600k bopd in 2016 with another drop of 200k bopd next year. Forecast predicts an increase of 1.3M bopd over 2015 levels by 2021.

Continue reading “Update on OPEC strategy”

Worldwide production of oil, 1950-2014

Here is a graph I developed showing the worldwide production of oil over the last sixty years or so.

By the way, notice the complete lack of a peak, after which the production of oil goes into a permanent slide toward zero?

Update on battle over crew camps in Williston

Lousy photo by James Ulvog of a man camp near Ray, North Dakota.

The fight over whether to shut down all man camps in Williston isn’t over.

3/19 – Bismarck Tribune – Man camp operators will fight back – The Williston city officials will have a second read of an ordinance to force all man camp operators within their reach to shut down. Target Logistics has dropped into the discussion a threat to sue if the city doesn’t give them more time to close down in an orderly manner.

The core argument is made yet again through an interview with a rotational crew worker. He works two weeks straight and then has two weeks off. Working twelve hours a day, plus time to get ready in the morning and turn in at night leaves little time to prepare food or do laundry.

Continue reading “Update on battle over crew camps in Williston”

Net metering and solar+storage

A few articles catching my eye on consumer level solar, particularly the battle over non-solar retail customers involuntarily subsidizing rooftop installations of their neighbors, also known as net-metering. Of note is that in general solar power projects are only feasible with massive federal subsidies and residential solar power also requires heavy subsidies from other customers in the form of net-metering as well as all levels of government.

12/29/15 – Wall Street Journal – Nevada’s Solar Flare / State regulators roll back the net-metering electricity scam. Nevada is reducing the subsidy homeowners with solar panels get for electricity that isn’t used.

Currently, the electricity generated by solar panels that isn’t used by the homeowner is credited at the retail rate instead of the wholesale rate. That clever angle being played is that the retail rate also includes distribution costs, while wholesale rate reflects generation only.

Continue reading “Net metering and solar+storage”

Ivanpah gets a reprieve

Low output, high cost, bird-killing, natural gas guzzling solar project has another year to hit contracted output. Photo by James Ulvog. — Low output, high cost, bird-killing, natural gas guzzling solar project has another year to hit contracted output requirements. Photo by James Ulvog.

Mentioned yesterday that the Ivanpah wing-toaster facility was in danger of having to close because it wasn’t producing enough electricity.

The plant owners can breathe easier. The Press Enterprise reports on 3/17: PUC gives Ivanpah plant operators more time to increase output.

In what looks to be a contract dispute, PG&E pointed out Ivanpah plant wasn’t delivering the contractually required amount of electricity and therefore was in violation of some state rules or regulations or something.

That meant Ivanpah needed special dispensation to continue operations. On Thursday, the state gave that permission.

Continue reading “Ivanpah gets a reprieve”

More updates on Aubrey McClendon

Additional coverage of Mr. McClendon and preliminary results of the investigation.

3/5 – Holman Jenkins at Wall Street Journal – Death of a Fracker – Subtitle is

“Drill, baby, drill.” Aubrey McClendon did, and left America stronger, richer and safer as a result.

Article says that whatever bit of economic growth the US has seen in for several years (I’m thinking about maybe for the last five years) is largely due to the frackers, of whom Mr. McClendon was a leading player. Author labels his risk tolerance as out there in the lunatic range.

Continue reading “More updates on Aubrey McClendon”

Poorly producing Ivanpah plant might have to close due to low production

The glare from those towers is visible from the air 100 miles away. The field around that white-hot tower toasts birds. Photo by James Ulvog. — The glare from the Ivanpah towers is visible to pilots 100 miles away. The field around that white-hot tower toasts birds that venture too close. Photo by James Ulvog.

In news cheered by all migratory birds west of the Mississippi, The Wall Street Journal reports on 3/16 that Ivanpah Solar Plant May Be Forced to Shut Down.

In old news, the plant isn’t producing as much electricity as expected. The new information is the wing-toasting solar plant isn’t meeting its contractually required output. Due to peculiarities of the regulatory world, this means it needs special permission from state regulators to keep operating.

Update: One year reprieve to meet contract requirements granted when PUC approved a forebearance agreement between PG&E and Ivanpah.

Continue reading “Poorly producing Ivanpah plant might have to close due to low production”

The slowdown in North Dakota well completions. AKA fracklog.

6 wells just about ready to start producing. Photo by James Ulvog.

The increase in DUCs, or drilled but uncompleted wells, in North Dakota is getting to be old news. The new word of fracklog has emerged to describe and quantify the number of wells waiting to be fracked before they go into production. Two recent articles and then a graph of the fracklog.

Big headlines recently announced two companies have stopped fracking. This is neither a big story nor a new story.

Previously mentioned the following article which says Whiting Petroleum will stop fracking its wells in the second quarter. This means they will keep drilling but not frack & complete any wells.

Continue reading “The slowdown in North Dakota well completions. AKA fracklog.”

Daily oil production in North Dakota drops 2.65% in January ’16

The year and half of effort by Saudi Arabia to shut down the shale industry is finally having a visible impact on production in North Dakota. Average production dropped 30,590 bopd to average of 1,122,106 bopd in January. That is a 2.65% drop in January following a 2.46% drop in December.

I’ve seen speculation that the January output would drop dramatically. Not sure that two and a half percent meets that particular forecast.

January production is down 105k bopd from the high water mark in December 2014. Going to take a reeeeeally long time to clear the 1 million bopd world-wide oversupply at that rate.

Don’t have time to update all my graphs this month, so here is the basic production graph I’ve been tracking:

Battle over man camps in Williston. Reaction of investors shows crony capitalism is alive and well, even in North Dakota.

The city of Williston has voted down a compromise plan that would have allowed man camps to continue within the city and the one-mile reach beyond city limits. Unfortunately, this issue illustrates one dark side of capitalism: the tendency towards cronyism, or insisting the government intervene to protect you from competition or demanding that the government give you special favors.

3/3 – Williston Herald reprinted at Dickinson Press – Big oil makes big push for crew camps compromise – An alliance of 31 energy companies are suggesting a compromise to city of Williston as an alternative to shutting down all crew camps.

Suggestion is to cut beds 25% in each of the next two years and double the per-bed ‘fee’ to $800.

Continue reading “Battle over man camps in Williston. Reaction of investors shows crony capitalism is alive and well, even in North Dakota.”

That’s all for Palen Solar Power Project

The future for the land that was going to be used for the Palen solar project. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

There will not be any environmental and economic destruction from the Palen project in Riverside County. It is as dead as the wildlife it would have otherwise killed.

12/16/15 – Chris Clarke at ReWire – Weird Twist for Riverside County Solar Project – The Palen Solar Power Project has been sold by its near bankrupt owner to the fifth owner. A bankruptcy court has approved the transfer from Abengoa Solar to Maverick Solar LLC (sub of EDF Renewable Energy).

Continue reading “That’s all for Palen Solar Power Project”