Energy – Page 18 – Outrun Change

Higher volatility of Bakken crude is not cause of spectacular explosions

Photo of empty oil train returning to North Dakota to pick up another load of crude oil. Photo by James Ulvog. — Photo of empty oil train returning to North Dakota to pick up another load of crude oil. End of the train is not visible around the curve. Photo by James Ulvog.

It is the volume of oil released in a railroad derailment that is the reason for massive fires we’ve seen in the headlines over the last few years, not the slightly higher volatility of crude from the Bakken shale oil.

9/23 – Minot Daily News print copy, from Bismannews – Oil company officials laud findings on crude oil volatility – Research from Dept of Transportation, Dept of Energy, and Federal Railroad Administration point toward the amount of fuel spilled as the biggest factor in whether an accident involving crude oil results in a fire or explosion. Volatility of oil is not the cause.

Continue reading “Higher volatility of Bakken crude is not cause of spectacular explosions”

EPA’s rules on methane emissions would be a drag on economy

The EPA has proposed rules to require shale gas drillers to reduce leaked methane more than drillers have already accomplished.

8/21 – Mark Mills at Forbes – EPA’s Methane Policy: Statistically Trivial For The Planet and Terrible For The Economy – The EPA’s rules, if burdened on the economy, would be trivial in terms of reducing greenhouse gases. Methane is natural gas. Article emphasizes the natural part – there are a huge number of sources of methane occurring naturally. Cows, termites, landfills, wetlands, and agriculture all produce massive amounts of methane. Teenage and adult human males have even been known to produce some.

Continue reading “EPA’s rules on methane emissions would be a drag on economy”

The oil boom in North Dakota has been a horrible, terrible, awful thing for government agencies in the state – part 2

Yesterday I started explaining how an article at McClatchy DC on 9/9, Oil boom a loser for North Dakota cities, counties, study finds, had enlightened my previous ignorance. I now realize the worst thing about the oil boom in North Dakota is that city and county governments have actually found themselves under fiscal pressure. I had not know that before reading this article. In fact, as I explained yesterday, I was not aware of any governmental agency anywhere at anytime that had not been able to fund all desired projects. Only in North Dakota and only because of the oil boom has that happened.

Sarcasm alert

Do I need to repeat my sarcasm alert from yesterday? If that would help, please read the opening paragraph.

Housing shortage hits local governments hardest

The article explains to us that Williams County government actually had to buy apartments in order to provide housing in order to get people to go to work for them.

Employer provided housing. In North Dakota. Wow. That is breaking news to me.

Continue reading “The oil boom in North Dakota has been a horrible, terrible, awful thing for government agencies in the state – part 2”

Why wind power should be called unreliable energy instead of renewable energy

Operational condition of wind turbines in California for 86% of the time in the first quarter of 2015. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

In addition to being expensive and requiring massive taxpayer subsidies, wind power is also unreliable. On September 3 Marginal Revolution wonders Is there a wind shortage?

Seems that output from US slicer-dicer farms is down 6% in the first half of 2015 even though rated, theoretical capacity is up 9%. Apparently there has been a six month lull in wind speed.

Wind farms have only realized 33% of their potential capacity instead of the typical 38%, according to the quoted industry leaders.

One wag at the site declared we are harvesting too much wind. We have obviously hit Peak Wind and will now enter an irreversible, unavoidable decline in output. Followup commenter worries our grandchildren will grow up in a kiteless world.

Continue reading “Why wind power should be called unreliable energy instead of renewable energy”

First guess on long term Bakken production

When I see a rig like that, I see another half million barrels of oil. Photo by James Ulvog.

Time to start accumulating predictions for long-term production of crude oil in North Dakota with the huge drop in oil prices during 2015.

Here’s the first data point:

Continue reading “First guess on long term Bakken production”

General update on Williston and Bakken – 9/10

Looking south on Main, construction underway in 10/14. Photo by James Ulvog. — Looking south on Main, construction underway in 10/14. In 9/15, road is torn up a block or two behind where this photo was taken. Photo by James Ulvog.

An update on the number of drilling rigs in the state and several posts on Bruce Oksol’s current visit to Williston.

Here is a recap of the North Dakota rig count, all from Million Dollar Way. Some older data repeated for recent context: Continue reading “General update on Williston and Bakken – 9/10”

More good stuff on the Bakken – 9/3

Photo of flaring at two well pad by James Ulvog

Here’s a few quick notes on interesting news that I won’t cover in a separate post:

9/2 – Amy Dalrymple at Forum News Service – Oil patch economy settling into ‘new normal’ – Looks like the Bakken is resembling a merely solid growth economy instead of an exploding economy. The growth of 2010 through 2014 was not sustainable.

The 16 hotels completed since 2010 actually have lots of vacancies. Prices are high, but you can actually find a room.

Update to status of federal charges against Keith Graves: 8/19 – Dickinson Press – Graves indicted for third time, demands evidence from state’s attorney’s office – Mr. Graves was arraigned on the third superseding indictment on 8/19, as scheduled. He entered a not guilty plea.

Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – 9/3”

Two superb primers on energy

Without cheap, abundant, and reliable energy neither the construction, illumination, nor activity after dark you see here would be possible. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com. — Without cheap, abundant, and reliable energy none of the construction, illumination, or activity after dark you see here would be possible. Photo of San Diego skyline courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com.

I found two more in-depth discussions of energy. I’m writing this blog to help me learn what is going on around us. If you are tagging along on my learning journey, you really oughta’ check these out:

8/21 – Daniel Yergin at Wall Street Journal – The Power Revolutions /Natural gas, solar power and data-driven efficiency are making big gains, but history shows that the shift away from coal and oil won’t be fast or neat – Anything you see in print from Mr. Yergin is worth reading.

He points out that it takes an extremely long time to make any major transition in sources of energy.

Continue reading “Two superb primers on energy”

Bakken update – 8/28

A few articles on what’s going on in Bakken: tougher trafficking laws in effect, Williston Walmart no longer open 24 hours a day, $18 billion in state reserves, and new Williston airport moving forward.

7/8 – Bismarck Tribune – County okays windfarm near Tioga on a split vote – Landowners organized an effort to develop a wind farm which was bought by a commercial company. That effort has now led to a 75 turbine project that has been approved by County commissioners.

Continue reading “Bakken update – 8/28”

Update on Thunder Spirit wind farm near Hettinger

Your view for the next 25 years. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com — Your view on the farm for the next 25 years. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

In a sort of grand opening, the shell company that owns the Thunder Spirit wind farm invited the community to sign a turbine blade.

8/26 – Dickinson Press – Blade-signing event heralds wind farm near Hettinger – If you want to see how huge wind turbines are and why they are so deadly to birds, you gotta’ check out the photo that goes with the story. The cross-section of the blade, its width, is equal to the height of the people signing the blade.

The article quotes the Lt. Governor, Congressional representative, and county commissioner waxing philosophically how wonderful the economic impact will be from the wind farm.

Article does not contain any comment from the pair of golden eagles nesting two miles from a planned turbine. The couple did not provide any newsworthy quotes regarding the impact of the wind farm on their life expectancy.

Some other info on the Thunder Spirit slice-and-dice farm near Hettinger, North Dakota: Continue reading “Update on Thunder Spirit wind farm near Hettinger”

Open frontier, energy edition, 8/24

Two rigs on same pad. Photo by James Ulvog.

In spite of dropping prices for crude oil and turmoil in the energy markets, the long-term trend of abundant oil and gas is encouraging. The oil ‘glut’ isn’t going away, meaning we will have abundant crude for quite a while, and refracking may open the door to recovery of even more gas and oil.

7/6 – Bloomberg Business – Refracking Is the New Fracking – Graph of estimated production from shale oil guesses output will rise from about 2.2M bopd in 2012 to under 3.5M bopd now to 5.5M bopd each year from about 2018 to 2023. Then production will tail off to about 4.5M bopd from 2032 through 2040.

That is somewhere in the range of around 48 billion barrels of oil that was untouchable a decade ago. My untouchable I mean there-is-noway-we-will-ever-get-to-that-stuff untouchable. (Calc as a very rough average of 4.5M bopd x 365 days a year x 29 years {2040 less 2012}.)

It is possible refracking might come close to doubling that output.

Continue reading “Open frontier, energy edition, 8/24”

Swapping new solar farms for existing coal & nuclear plants will increase cost of electricity

Wind farm at a moment when the backup gas turbines can sit idle. Picture courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com — Wind farm at a moment during the day when the backup gas turbines can sit idle. Picture courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

The forced push to replace coal and nuclear power with wind will cost consumers dearly.

8/9 – Wall Street Journal – The Price Tag For Uprooting America’s Electric Grid – A new study from the Institute for Energy Research (IER) looks at the cost of constructing new energy sources with the cost from existing sources.

This is a big deal because the EPA’s goal of transforming the power grid will require shutting down a tremendous amount of already-operating plants and replacing that power with brand-new, intermittent, renewable power. That means shutting down existing coal plants and building new wind farms.

Bottom line is we will be shutting down conventional coal that produces electricity at $38.40 per megawatt-hour (mWh) in exchange for new wind farms at an all-in cost of $112.80/mWh.

Here are the costs calculated in the study, in dollars per mWh: Continue reading “Swapping new solar farms for existing coal & nuclear plants will increase cost of electricity”

50,000 wells to go in North Dakota?

50,000 more wells over the next 25 years? Drilling rig in North Dakota. Photo by Melisa Ulvog.

Guesses on the total number of wells expected to be drilled in the Bakken and Three Forks keep increasing.

8/14 – Amy Dalrymple at Oil Patch Dispatch – 10,000 Bakken wells drilled, 50,000 to go, Helms says – Try this on for size – The wells drilled to this point in Bakken field are one-sixth of the total that will eventually be drilled.

For every well in place, there are five more that will be drilled.

Continue reading “50,000 wells to go in North Dakota?”