About those dropping oil prices – 6

Have a lot of articles to discuss about what’s going on in the energy area. Lots of turmoil and uncertainty at the moment. Here are a few articles, to help get caught up:

12/6 – Economist – Sheikh v Shale – Love the cover illustration! I’ll be rooting for the shale guy in the showdown.

Article gives credit to shale oil for the drop in gas prices and oil prices. Take a bow, all you frackers in Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian! A $40 drop in price moves $1.3 trillion a year from producers to consumers. That is a savings of around $800 a year for an average American, or equivalent to a 2% pay raise, according to the article

Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – 6”

About those dropping oil prices – Be careful what you wish for – 5

So much news about energy and oil prices and the damage caused by wind and solar power lately. Will try to get caught up in commenting on the fascinating news around us. In the meantime, here are a few articles about energy. By the way, one ought to be really careful when choosing to start a price war…

11/30 – The Telegraph; Ambrose Evans-Pritchard – Saudis risk playing with fire in shale-price showdown as crude crashes – Crude prices dropped to $66 in the wake of OPEC decided to maintain production levels. Rumors are the OPEC and Saudi goal is to cut the growth rate of US shale production from another million bopd to only a 500K bopd increase.

Check out the differing expectations for where the pricing vulnerability is in the U.S:

Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – Be careful what you wish for – 5”

More info from 12/14 Director’s Cut – Indicators for near term

For follow-up to my previous post on October oil production data in North Dakota, check out the Dickinson Press’ discussion of comments from Mr. Lynn Helms:  Prices could plateau production: Hems says 2015 could be tough for oil.

Here are a few tidbits that help me understand what is going on around us:

Mr. Helms, who is director of the ND Department of Mineral Resources, didn’t think oil prices would drop this far.

Article says that on Friday sweet crude prices were $41.75 a barrel in North Dakota and $57.81 on the New York Mercantile.

Graphic at the Bakken Magazine says on Friday the Brent price was $62.05 and Cushing was $57.99. I’m slowly catching on (but you already knew that), so that graphic tells me that the Cushing price is also called the West Texas Intermediate index.

Rig count

Continue reading “More info from 12/14 Director’s Cut – Indicators for near term”

North Dakota oil production in October ’14 plateaus, likely for the winter

Total production in October 2014 averaged 1,182,174 bopd. That is down a smidgeon (2,461 bopd) from the preliminary of 1,184,635 in September, and down a smidgeon more (4,054 bopd) compared to the slightly revised 1,186,228 amount for September.

Here is what the total and Bakken-only production looks like:

ND production 10-14 total

 

The Director’s Cut each month has narrative on the month along with  more statistical data. The December report is here.

Price of sweet crude

Continue reading “North Dakota oil production in October ’14 plateaus, likely for the winter”

A discussion about finite oil

A commenter on my blog has asked a few questions. We have a pleasant discussion running.

Yesterday he asked if the amount of oil is finite.

As I started to reply, I just kept writing and writing. Decided to move my comment to a separate post so the conversation is more visible.

On December 9, Stig Helmer (self-identification) said: Continue reading “A discussion about finite oil”

The visual appearance of a million barrel a day oil field

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

(All photos by James Ulvog. Above view of 4 pads, with a pair of flares visible in the middle and workover rig on pad in lower left.)

Following post was written on October 18, when my wife and I flew out of Williston:

We took a 6:25 a.m. flight, so it was still dark. The view on departure was fabulous.

I wish I had the camera equipment (and the skill) to show what I saw.

Words will have to suffice, along with photos taken during daylight.

Sky was clear until several minutes from the airport, then clouds slowly built up.

Drilling rigs are quite visible, what with those tall metal superstructures and the working deck all lit up. Sorta’ like an all white Christmas tree.

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Peak Oil debunked over and over and over again – #37

The Wall Street Journal has a delightful editorial today on Peak Oil. That prompted me to pull together several articles I’ve been wanting to talk about.

Just in case you wondered, the devotees of Peak Oil are alive and well. Many of the big names are reportedly in hiding. Do a few minute search on the ‘net and you can still find a lot of them.  I’ve had a dialogue over the last few days with one gentleman on my blog.

Haven’t pointed out the foolishness of Peak Oil doctrine since July, so it’s time to look again. Here we go…

12/5 – Wall Street Journal – ‘Peak Oil’ Debunked, Again – And again. And again.

Gotta’ love the opening paragraph:

It has been 216 years since Thomas Malthus gave birth to the idea that mankind’s appetite for natural resources would outstrip nature’s capacity to supply them. There have since been regular warnings that the world is running out of soybeans, helium, chocolate, tunsgsten, you name it—and that population growth has become unsustainable. The warnings create a political or social panic for a while, only to be proved wrong.

Peak Oil is the current fad of ‘we will run out by the day after tomorrow.’

The run up in oil over the last several years to a high of around $112 this past summer has encouraged entreprenuers, or perhaps we should call them petroprenuers, to figure out how to get massive amount of shale oil out of the ground. Continue reading “Peak Oil debunked over and over and over again – #37”

Update on wind power (solar #33)

More on the economic, environmental, and ecological devastation caused by solar and wind.

Today let’s look at two articles on the economic damage from wind power: massive tax subsidies which look likely for another year and cost of wind-provided electricity rising.

11/30 – Tim Phillips in Wall Street Journal – Wind Power is Intermittent, But Subsidies Are Eternal – Check out the article for a brief overview of the massive corporate welfare found in wind power subsidies.

The Production Tax Credit provides slice-and-dice farms a 2.3 cent tax credit for each kilowatt-hour produced.

Continue reading “Update on wind power (solar #33)”

“I, Egg”, or, how many millions of people have to cooperate for you to boil one egg?

Check out Exxon-Mobil’s commercial. Try to take a completely wild guess how many people are involved in getting one egg to your house and the number of people and millions of dollars of investment needed to get a bit of natural gas to the stove:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=PmD8B64vSM8]

 

Continue reading ““I, Egg”, or, how many millions of people have to cooperate for you to boil one egg?”

About those dropping oil prices and OPEC’s decision to let them fall – 4

OPEC decided on November 27 to maintain production levels. That means they won’t try to increase crude oil prices.

One of the many articles I’ve read (don’t remember which one; too lazy to look for it) said the pricing decisions by OPEC are about geopolitics, not economics. Keep that in mind as you read headlines.

They have declared a price war.  As the old saying goes, be careful what you wish for.

By the way, even if OPEC can shut down a lot of the marginal producers, the oil not drilled will still be there, ready to be drilled as soon as prices rise.

Here is another bunch of articles on point.

11/28 – Wall Street Journal editorial – New Oil Order – OPEC decided on Thursday, 10/27 to maintain production. That will allow crude prices to stay where they are or even drop.

OPEC has lost a huge portion of its pricing power – that means they can’t force us consumers to pay whatever they want. This is a good thing.

OPEC knows that the booming US shale oil revolution will threaten their high prices and high volume. Thus,

Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices and OPEC’s decision to let them fall – 4”

More reaction to the hit pieces on North Dakota regulation of the oil industry

There is an old explanation that the best learning you will get about news coverage is when you watch media sources report on a topic for which you have deep knowledge.

It has been quite sobering to occasionally read a story where I can compare my knowledge gained from education and experience to what a reporter explains. In some situations, it is so easily to identify biases, slanted explanations, and sloppy reporting.

On the other hand, I’ve also learned from following the deworming valuation issue in the nonprofit community that sometimes reporters have an incredible depth of accurate knowledge, report accurately, and don’t even give the full range of damaging information they have gathered.

I’ve learned a lot about energy in the last four years. Am still quite new to the field, but finally know enough to carefully evaluate what I read.

That of course leads me to the hit pieces from the New York Times against state regulation of energy development, previously discussed here.

More on the first of two stories from the New York Times…

11/23 – Say Anything Blog – About that New York Times “Downside of the Boom” Story and 11/24 – Bakken.com – The dark side of the boom – isn’t so dark

Continue reading “More reaction to the hit pieces on North Dakota regulation of the oil industry”

More good stuff on the Bakken – 11/25

First comprehensive random survey of groundwater finds no contamination. Increased employment from Bakken spreading towards Black Hills in South Dakota, and another reason production will fall for the next few months.

11/17 – Dickinson Press – Groundwater study shows no contaminationContinue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – 11/25”

Editorial hit piece on Bakken presented as front page reporting

The New York Times ran an entertaining hit piece on the entire Bakken oil field with particular focus on the intentionally lackadaisical enforcement effort from the state. I learned of the front page article from some complimentary twitter comments, from which I guessed this was a major attack before even reading the first paragraph.

Check out The Downside of the Boom.

As I’ve expanded the horizons of my reading over the last four years, I’ve learned how to see the slant on articles. It’s easy to pick up on agendas if you read carefully, watch the choice of words, and assess the point of view. The goal in this report from the NYT is oh so obvious.

Million Dollar Way’s read is the same:

It was clearly an editorial which will be used by movers and shakers in Washington to support their case that the environment is too important to leave it up to state regulators.

Having said that, I believe my point of view is just as visible – since I’m not a professional journalist, I don’t try to hide my worldview when writing about an issue on which I have an opinion. You may thus filter my comments and the NYT article as you wish.

On to the article…

At a simple level, the adjectives and adverbs are slanted. The oil service roads “slash” through the landscape. That description is in a caption for a photo showing a peaceful farm in the foreground, pump jacks on the hill at the horizon, and not a service road in sight. The farmer with those slashed wheat fields is likely depositing checks for twenty or fifty thousand dollars each month.

Leaks in pipelines which are under federal and not state supervision are the fault of the previously mentioned lackadaisical state regulators. Keep in mind a federal agency is responsible for most pipelines and all the big pipes.

Continue reading “Editorial hit piece on Bakken presented as front page reporting”

Photojournalism site telling the story of North Dakota and the Bakken

Just found a wonderful site – Intersection Journal

Founder and photojournalist Chad Ziemendorf’s description:

Intersection Journal is an online magazine dedicated to capturing the culture, industry and way of life in Western North Dakota through photography and writing.  Optimized for the mobile generation, we celebrate living, working in and exploring the Peace Garden State.

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More good stuff on the open frontiers – 11/18

A few articles on the open frontiers of technology, energy, space and publishing that are worth a read and a brief comment.

About those low energy prices – #4

11/15 – Dickinson Press – Bakken keeps booming: Despite low prices, companies continue to invest in Oil Patch – Estimates attributed to “state officials” suggest that crude oil prices would have to drop to $42 per barrel to bring most production in the state to a halt. The impact of that price would be far more devastating to OPEC and Russia than the U.S. industry.

Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers – 11/18”