We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
You read that right.
Looks like it is possible to get permission from the feds to set up an operation that expects to kill several eagles every year for the next 3 decades. Thirty years.
What do you have to do to get blessing to file such a permit?
Continue reading “You can apply for a federal permit to kill a bunch of eagles”
One of the biggest reasons that Peak Oil is so astoundingly foolish is the assumption that there will never, ever be any more oil found under the ground. Another huge assumption is that those dirty, evil, money-grubbing oil barons will never, ever figure out a new way to get the oil out.
This month’s object lesson that both assumptions are completely wrong is Cline Shale. I will have another object lesson in a few days.
Yeah, I’ve not heard of Cline Shale before reading this afternoon’s post from Million Dollar Way – Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? Now We Have the Cline Shale.
You can distill the problem with burning corn in our cars into one cartoon. From Michael Ramirez at Investors Business Daily.
Hungry people can’t eat gasoline.
We are diverting increasing amounts of corn into ethanol which goes into our gasoline. That is driving up grain prices. That in turn is driving up food prices here in the U.S. and around the world.
And that at a time when our domestic oil production is going through the roof.
Carpe Diem reminds us of two older articles in More on the lunacy of turning corn into demon ethanol.
The first is from Slate, in July 2012 – Food as Fuel. The second is from far left economist Paul Krugman from April 2008 – Grains Gone Wild.
In the Carpe Diem post, Prof. Perry says that anytime you have Paul Krugman agreeing with fifteen named sources (including commentators from both left and right) that ethanol is a lousy policy …
… you know that ethanol has to be one of the most misguided public policies in U.S. history.
I’m having difficulty tracking production levels in Eagle Ford. Haven’t figured out how to read the Texas Railroad Commission’s data (they regulate oil drilling in addition to the rails). Caught on to the North Dakota data a while ago, but that is easier since about 91% of the state’s oil production is from the Bakken field.
One thing I’ve learned is the data comes in slow. Thus it is revised a few times over the next several months after the first data is released. This is a good thing – the regulators release data as they get it.
Continue reading “Eagle Ford crude production likely passing the 400k bopd point in November ’12”
Article in the Wall Street Journal indicates 2012 saw the largest increase in oil production since we started producing oil in 1859.
Here’s the lede from U.S. Oil-Production Rise is Fastest Ever:
U.S. oil production grew more in 2012 than in any year in the history of the domestic industry, which began in 1859, and is set to surge even more in 2013.
The shale wells using horizontal production have a very high drop off rate in production over the first few years. The initial production (IP) is very high which falls fast (depletion rate). The wells then sustain production at a low level (terminal decline) for a very long time.
That is a very simple summary of what I’ve learned in the last year.
Here is a more detailed explanation from Michael Filloon at Seeking Alpha – Bakken Update: EOG Wells Model EURs Over 2 Million Barrels Of Oil
Here is his first comment that is quite helpful to me:
Continue reading “Background on Well Depletion in Early Years of Production – The Decline Rate”
November production declined to 733,097 barrels per day (bopd) from revised 749,322 in October. That is a decline of 16,225 bopd, or 2.2%. That is still the second highest ever production.
Statewide stats here, Bakken-only here.
The director of NDIC indicated this is primarily due to bad weather in the month: Continue reading “Surprise! North Dakota oil production drops in November”
The Energy Information Administration has a prediction for oil production over the next two years:
EIA estimates U.S. total crude oil production averaged 6.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, an increase of 0.8 million bbl/d from the previous year. Projected domestic crude oil production continues to increase to 7.3 million bbl/d in 2013 and 7.9 million bbl/d in 2014, which would mark the highest annual average level of production since 1988.
Here’s what that looks like in a table:
Good background article on the amount and availability of water needed to frack all those wells in North Dakota from a post by Bruce Oksol at Million Dollar Way. He converts the amounts into acre-feet of water in his post, Update on Availability of Water Necessary to Frack Wells in the Bakken.
For future reference, here is the conversion calculation: Continue reading “Amount of water to frack Bakken wells will be provided by excess from the Missouri river”
Sales tax collections are a helpful indicator of what is going on. From the Williston Wire, available by email only:
According to tax department data, Williston’s taxable sales and purchases were $952,804,340 in the third quarter, up nearly 30 percent over the same period last year. Williams County topped the one billion dollar mark with $1,268,689,305 collected up 36.15 percent
Continue reading “Rough indicator of growth in Williston – Sales tax collections up 30% in a year”
October production stats are out. New graphs at end of this post.
Bakken-only daily production hit 682,393 for the month. Increase of 2.9% over revised September info (late reports arrive which result in increasing prior data). That’s the first month of over 20M barrels from Bakken.
Compared to December 2012 Bakken production, which was 469,769 bopd, that is an increase of 212,624 bopd in 10 months, a 45.3% increase in 10 months.
Statewide production is 747,239 bopd for the month.
Back of the envelope calculation for the dollar volume of oil revenue
Continue reading “Like a broken record: North Dakota oil production hits another high”
33,000 – Estimated residents in Williston now
44,000 – Estimate for 2017, five years out.
Continue reading “Population estimates for Williston now and in 5 years”
Very cool video from Marathon Oil. Their description:
This timelapse video shows the drilling and fracking of a typical Marathon Oil well in the Eagle Ford, Texas. It was captured in the summer of 2012.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6_j7UkuzJTU#t=47s]
link if needed: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6_j7UkuzJTU#t=47s
Hat tip – Carpe Diem
Yeah, the lights on all those drilling sites make Bakken and Eagle Ford fields visible from space.
Check out two cool photos at New NASA satellite photos show America’s oil fields at night, over at Carpe Diem.
Cool pix. You can pick out the interstate highways by tracing the visible towns that are in a line.
Another view of Eagle Ford is at Eagle Ford Shale. It’s not larger than either Houston or Dallas-Forth Worth. The field is narrower but much more extended than either of those metro areas. Check out Have You Seen the Eagle Ford From Space?