Energy – Page 9 – Outrun Change

Exquisitely expensive offshore wind farm to begin turning in October

To understand the size and extent of visual pollution, notice the small size of that work basket which would hold many people. Photo courtesy of Adobe Stock. — To understand the extent of visual pollution and danger to navigation, notice the small size of that work basket which is large enough to hold many people. The rails are probably about four feet high. Photo courtesy of Adobe Stock.

New York Times reports on 8/22 that America’s First Offshore Wind Farm May Power Up a New Industry – In a very upbeat puff piece, the NYT describes the Block Island Wind Farm project, which is expected to start producing electricity in October, after construction was recently completed. The turbines will start turning in October and after weeks of fine tuning (to get the phase output from each turbine identically matched and to resolve other technical issues), will start pumping out electricity.

Photo in the article shows the turbines are extremely visible from the island. If you didn’t know they are about 589 feet tall, you might guess the turbines are a half mile or mile offshore. They are actually three miles away.

Continue reading “Exquisitely expensive offshore wind farm to begin turning in October”

A few updates on oil prices and production

What's going to happen on oil prices and production levels? I don't have a clue. Trying to find a clue is why I blog. Image courtesy of Adobe Stock. — What’s going to happen on oil prices and production levels? When will supply and demand balance? My answer above. Trying to find a clue is why I blog.
Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Here are a few articles of the last few weeks discussing oil production, possible direction of prices, and possibility of increased turmoil in Middle East.

8/11 – Wall Street Journal – Saudi Oil Output Sets Record Despite Global Glut – Both Saudi Arabia and OPEC hit record production levels in July. Saudi output hit 10.67M bopd, while OPEC hit 33.11M bopd. Eyeball the accompanying graph in the article and you can see output in 2015 and 2016 in total is at the highest level since 2002.

Iran’s output has hit 3.6M bopd, with their announced target of 4M bopd before they will consider discussion to freeze output. Article says speculation says they have likely hit a production ceiling.

Ironically, if Iran and each of the OPEC producers (other than Venezuela) are at maximum production, they might all get together and agree to a production freeze. Not that a freeze while everyone is running at maximum capacity would do any good.

8/11 – Wall Street Journal – IEA: Crude Production to Fall Behind Demand – Continue reading “A few updates on oil prices and production”

Two new wind power farms in North Dakota

Operational condition of wind turbines in California for 86% of the time in first quarter of 2015. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com — Operational condition of wind turbines in California for 86% of the time in first quarter of 2015. This is a still photo but visual would be the same if this was an hour-long video, other than a few coyotes wandering around wondering why their avian lunch wasn’t delivered to the usual spot. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

More articles on wind power in North Dakota.

Background on why wind cannot provide base load of electricity we need to live a modern life.
Capacity info for a new wind farm.
Capacity for another wind farm and worries from regulators that the increase in power from wind and decrease in power from coal may soon create instability in the electricity grid.

8/5 – Dickinson Press – Power generated by wind adds to grid, but it’s still backup to coal in North Dakota – If you are just tuning in to energy issues, check out this article. It provides background to the idea that the electricity we need all the time is from what is called base load, which comes primarily from coal plants in North Dakota.

Continue reading “Two new wind power farms in North Dakota”

North Dakota oil production drops 2% in June

Total crude oil production in the state dropped 20,419 bopd, going from 1,047,003 bopd in May to 1,026,584 bopd in June. That is a decline of 1.95%. I’ll make a guess that another month or two will see production cross the one million point.

The Director’s Cut is guessing the low prices, and consequent low rig count, will last through third quarter this year or second quarter of next year.

Just one graph today:

Rig count in North Dakota during summer of 2016

An increasingly rare sight in North Dakota. Not only the active rig, but the flaring as well. Photo by James Ulvog.

Here is a recap of the North Dakota rig count. All of the data is from Million Dollar Way. The number of rigs isn’t as important now as it was a year or three ago, but it is still one indicator of activity. One rig today creates a well that produces a lot more oil that a few years ago, and in less time, and at lower cost.

Some older data repeated for context: Continue reading “Rig count in North Dakota during summer of 2016”

Updates on news out of Williston

A few updates on Williston:

Crew camps must close by 9/1
New airport has all the land needed for construction
You can actually find a hotel room in western N.D.
Former strip club reworking its image

Check out the by-lines. You will see the news out of the North Dakota oil patch I find most interesting typically has one name. How does one person generate so many good articles?

8/9 – Amy Dalrymple at Dickinson Press – Williston crew camps get Sept. 1 deadline to close – City Commissioners voted 5-0 to force all crew camps within their reach to close in three weeks, remove facilities by May 1, 2018 and restore sites by August 1, 2018.

Continue reading “Updates on news out of Williston”

Another biased report on oil

What answer did you have in mind? Image courtesy of Adobe Stock.

Previously mentioned an agenda-driven research project that was unsuccessful in finding any ground water contamination caused by fracking. Said report will intentionally not be publicized, according to the lead researcher.

Now a report from Duke University looks at above ground spills of brine water and concludes there is “widespread” contamination of water and soil across North Dakota. Been holding this post for while. May as well publish it.

KFYR TV reports on 4/27: Duke University Conducts Water Contamination Study in ND.

The health department in the state says 1% or 2% of the 3900 spills which have been reported require long-term cleanup. Let me translate that: any spill, even of a few barrels, is required to be reported. Of those spills reported, 98% or 99% are immediately contained and cleaned up. Somewhere between 40 and 80 require ongoing efforts.

The researchers looked at four spill locations.

Four.

Continue reading “Another biased report on oil”

Outlook for oil, some short-term and long-term thoughts

Tight Oil Production - Courtesy of Energy Information Administration — Tight Oil Production – Courtesy of Energy Information Administration

More news on the energy market. Supply and demand may equalize soon. Maybe.

Saudi Arabia may have bit off more than they can chew. The US and world markets will benefit, along with everyone who consumes energy.

7/1 – AP at Bakken.com – US energy secretary sees oil market coming into balance – The Saudi oil minister thinks worldwide demand will catch up with production by around the end of 2016. The US Energy Secretary thinks it will go into 2017, perhaps another year. Prices likely to go up as demand and supply stabilize.

7/18 – Wall Street Journal – Oil Prices Steady but Products Glut Looms – There are hints in the air that several markets, such as gasoline, are oversupplied, which will put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Another indication that nobody can predict the future.

7/31 – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph – Texas shale oil has fought Saudi Arabia to a standstill – This is a must-read if you follow my blog.

Twenty months ago Saudi Arabia launched a price war, generally considered to be an effort to take out American shale producers.

Didn’t quite work out that way.

Continue reading “Outlook for oil, some short-term and long-term thoughts”

Wind turbine fails, or, why they earn the title slice-and-dicers

Here are merely two of the many published videos showing wind turbines as they fail. Watch for the burning hunks of rare earth metals getting spread across the prairie. Look for the reason wind turbines rightfully deserve the name slice-and-dicer.

8-3 – Gizmodo – A Malfunctioning, Flaming Wind Turbine Is Actually Quite Beautiful – Video catches two burning turbines that won’t be slicing-and-dicing any more. One in foreground produces pretty smoke patterns when the tip catches fire. Fire slows down when turbine throws a blade a few hundred feet away.

[youtube=https://youtu.be/Q5COAi6KM8o?t=38]

Title of video: Windmill Fire Live Video Palladam Tamilnadu 2016; link: https://youtu.be/Q5COAi6KM8o?t=38

Another video demonstrates why every turbine needs to constructed many hundreds of feet away from anything of value, like houses, farm buildings, livestock, transmission lines, or roads.

With luck, the turbine, tower, and massive blades will fall straight down upon failure.

Without luck, those hundred foot long blades will go airborne like a javelin. In the video, when launched at a roughly 45 degree down angle, it looks like one blade travels 4 or 5 times its length, which would be somewhere between 400 and 700 feet. How far would a blade travel if launched at a 45 degree up angle?

At worst, the three blades disintegrate into small chunks of shrapnel, flying every direction, imitating an explosion from World War II anti-aircraft artillery.

Warning: the clip of a vulture getting hit, falling to the ground mortally wounded, struggling to regain its footing, is nauseating. That only happens to raptors, what, many thousands of times a year in the U.S.?

Yeah, wind turbines have worked hard to earn the well-deserved title of slice-and-dicer.

[youtube=https://youtu.be/wfzgIxMEo8g?t=19]

Title: Best Wind Turbine Crash/Fail Compilation HD 2016; link: https://youtu.be/wfzgIxMEo8g?t=19

Oh, tornadoes and wind turbines don’t play well together. Ponder the overlap of where tornadoes and wind turbines are concentrated.

More news on the damage from solar power

For those panels to pay off, the regulators need to keep rules in place for a decade or two. Not a good bet. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com — For those panels to pay off, you are betting the regulators will keep rules in place for a decade or two. Not a particularly good bet. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Two articles last week on disruptions from solar power. Illustration why it’s not wise to make it decade-long bet on residential rooftop solar. Also, a video surveillance system that might, perhaps allow getting an accurate count on the tally of bird deaths at Ivanpah.

7/26 – New York Times – Why Home Solar Panels No Longer in Some States – Friendly suggestion for your consideration: Don’t place $20,000 on a 12 year bet that politically driven government regulators won’t change the rules.

The story of one specific man in California is used to illustrate the danger of betting on stability in government rules.

In California, electricity rates have been structured so that there are four tiers of consumption. To punish heavy residential electricity users, prices in tiers three and four are steep, running as high as $.36 a kilowatt-hour for tier 4 with PG&E. To protect most folks from rising cost of electricity the lower two tiers were set low, resulting in a cross-subsidy. Continue reading “More news on the damage from solar power”

A few more signs of energy recovery

Where crude oil goes for refining so we can have the gas to drive our cars. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.

There are some signs that oil production is slowly recovering. Productivity improvements continue. Hints that the US has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia.

7/1 – The American Interest – Frackers Fix Their Fatal Flaw – A report from Reuters indicates several drillers have figured out how to ease the extreme drop in production early in a shale well’s life.

Continue reading “A few more signs of energy recovery”

More media outlets are catching on to the damage caused by wind power

Nice photo from Palm Springs, but unforunately this is not symbolic of the sun setting on destructive wind power. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com before merging into Adobe Stock. — Nice photo from Palm Springs, but unfortunately this is not symbolic of the sun setting on destructive wind power. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com before merging into Adobe Stock.

Check out the following articles showing two more media outlets finally catching on to the economic, environment, and wildlife damage caused by intermittent, expensive wind power.

7/19 – New York Times – How Renewable Energy Is Blowing Climate Change Efforts Off Course – Article explains how massive subsidies to renewable wind and solar plants along with brute force efforts to require utilities to buy the expensive electricity is pushing nuclear energy out of business.

The severe disruptions to the grid which are expected as a natural consequence of wind and solar power are now of concern to this author.

Here are just two of the massive distortions from the current push for artificially increasing reliance on renewables.

Continue reading “More media outlets are catching on to the damage caused by wind power”

More wind power coming on line in North Dakota

Above party did not speak at hearings which approved 159 wind turbines. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub before they merged into Adobe Stock.

Several articles on the increasing number of slice-and-dicers in the state.

Also, ethanol lobbyists want the feds to force customers to buy more of their food-based power; this is cronyism in action. That customers don’t want to burn more corn in their cars and don’t want the higher prices and don’t want to risk damaging their engines is not a factor in the lobbying.

6/16 – Forum News Service at Bismark Tribune – N.D. utility regulators approve wind farm project – The state PSC approved the Brady Wind Energy Center I near Dickinson. There has been a lot of public opposition to the project for quite some time.

Continue reading “More wind power coming on line in North Dakota”

North Dakota oil production recovers a bit in May 2016

Oil production in North Dakota dropped about 6.3% in April and recovered a little in May, increasing about 0.5%. Here is the average daily production for last three months:

1,111,544 – March
1,041,981 – April
1,047,364 – May

Here are a few graphs that show the picture:

Average production by month statewide and Bakken only since 2008 is shown at the top of this post
Average production for the state by month since 1990
Crude prices by month, which shows a modest recovery
Value of monthly production, which show a faint whiff of a hint in the air that maybe production is coming back to life
Fracklog, which is the number of wells drilled to depth but awaiting fracking before production may begin

Continue reading “North Dakota oil production recovers a bit in May 2016”

Timeline of Bakken oil production

For long-term archive purposes, here is a timeframe for the Bakken boom.

6/28 – The Million Dollar Way – The Bakken Is In Its Manufacturing Stage – Bruce Oksol provides a useful long-term perspective on how Bakken production has developed:

2000: the Bakken boom begins in Montana

2007: the Bakken boom begins in North Dakota

2012: the Bakken hits its stride

early 2014: the Bakken setting new records, almost every month

late 2014: the Saudi Surge

2015: the Bakken re-trenches

1Q16 taxable sales 50% greater than 1Q10

mid-2016: the Bakken bottoms out — at least that is what the tea leaves suggest

For more perspective, here is the average daily production for each of the above years. I calculated the following from data pulled from the state website: Continue reading “Timeline of Bakken oil production”