We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
Yesterday’s post described the 2.4% increase in North Dakota oil production. Here are a few more graphs to tell the story.
Here is the average sweet crude price in the state by month:
Continue reading “More graphs of North Dakota oil production in April 2017”
Big increase in production in the state. Increase of 2.43%, from average of 1,025,690 bopd in March (revised) to 1,050,630 bopd in April (preliminary). That is the highest average production since March 2016. The April production was only 160,700 below the high water mark of 1,207,276 bopd in July 2015.
That upslope since last fall is not quite what OPEC+Russia had in mind.
Million Dollar Way pointed out the production increased at the same time as the number of inactive wells increased and the fracklog increased. I sure don’t understand the dynamics.
Producing wells increased 122 to 13,434; fracklog increased 141 to 830; inactive well count increased 167 to 1,466. Some of that is a recovery from drops in March.
Here is another graph of production, for a longer term perspective:
Continue reading “Oil production in North Dakota up 2.4% in April 2017”
A few tidbits from western North Dakota:
6/3/17 – Star Tribune – North Dakota oil industry shows signs of a rebound – Drilling and employment is picking up in the North Dakota oil patch. Article illustrates this by telling the tale of several guys who have been out of work for a while but have been rehired.
Several analysts are quoted saying the industry is bouncing back.
Interesting stats in the article:
Efficiency drivers:
Here is a variety of news tidbits I’ve noticed lately from Bakken:
4/14/17 – The Million Dollar Way – New Airport Work to Begin Next Week – Official groundbreaking ceremony was in October 2016. The start of massive grading and site work starts the week of April 17, 2017.
4/14/17 – Amy Dalrymple at Oil Patch Dispatch – ND Oil Production Up 5 Percent; Bakken Needs 1,000 Workers to Fill Oil Jobs, Regulator Says – Mr. Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources was surprised by the 5% increase in production in February.
He expects aggressive drilling in the summer, after a lull in the spring due to load restrictions.
Average daily oil production dropped 0.83% in March, from 1,034,248 bopd (revised) to 1,025,638 bopd (preliminary). Director’s report for the month is not out as of the time of posting this discussion. This month, I’ll just show two graphs of production:
Here is a longer term view:
Continue reading “North Dakota oil production steady in March ’17”
I’ve been watching the tally of daily rig count for a while. When I think about it, I jot down the count listed at The Million Dollar Way blog. Occasionally, as in every few months, I post my tallies.
By the way, if you have even the slightest interest in my comments on my blog you really, really, really need to read MDW.
Decided to put all that data into a graph to help me see the trends from another direction. So, I combined all the data that has been accumulated haphazardly over time and put it in a graph.
If it helps you see some patterns, I’ll share my graph.
Keep a few things in mind:
Having undercut my data and graph, here is a picture of the rig count in the state:
Let’s look at some longer term graphs of oil production in North Dakota and the value of that production. Here is a view of the annual oil production in the state:
The fascinating insight from that graph is production did not drop in 2015.
Continue reading “Volume and value of oil production in North Dakota for the last several years”
If you want to see one graph that explains the swings of drilling and oil production in North Dakota, take a look at this:
The price of oil for producers in the state collapsed in late 2014 due to the OPEC decision to increase production. The price recovered a bit in mid-2015 but continued to drop into the 20 something range.
The price has been steadily trending up, albeit slowly, since mid-2016.
That graph can then explain a lot of other trends.
For example, look at the count of average rigs in operation. The tally dropped dramatically in 2015. It has slowly been recovering since fall of 2016.
Continue reading “Swings in oil prices and rig count in North Dakota”
Oil production in North Dakota increased 5.38% in February to 1,034,168 bopd (preliminary). This follows a 4.14% increase in January. Two large changes in earlier months were an 8.91% drop in December 2016 and a 7.31% increase in October 2016.
I’ve not posted my usual graphs for a few months. Will get caught up in the next few days.
Here is a graph of average daily production, both state-wide and Bakken-only:
Here is a longer term view, with average daily production since 2004:
Continue reading “Oil production in North Dakota up 5% in February 2017”
The count of drilling rigs in operation across the state has shown strong increase since fall ’16.
Here is a recap of the North Dakota rig count, all from Million Dollar Way. It has been a while since I posted an update.
Keep in mind that the dramatic increase in productivity and production per well means that the number of rigs isn’t anywhere near as important as it was several years ago. At the same time, the count of rigs is still one indicator of activity. Perhaps the long-term trends aren’t important while the shorter term trends are.
Keep in mind I gather data when I think to make notes on the count. Also, I haven’t double checked the numbers, so there very well could be some errors.
Continue reading “Recent counts of drilling rigs in North Dakota”
Update: Greetings to readers arriving from The Million Dollar Way! Enjoy! Oh, by the way MDW, you are very welcome. For other readers, if you enjoy my writing on energy in general, Bakken in particular, and the wide open frontier of the energy revolution, somewhere around one-quarter of the credit for what I know goes to the learning provided by MDW.
I’ll make a guess we will be hearing lots more stories of hiring in Bakken. Some recent articles:
12/29 – Grand Forks Herald at Dickinson press – Oil companies hiring fracking crews in Bakken – Job Service North Dakota said there are 60 companies wanting to staff up fracking crews. Each crew will need between 45 and 65 workers, so that something in the range of 300 or 350 jobs in the new year.
Let’s extend that out. The Million Dollar Way helps us in a post asking Worker Shortage Looming In The Bakken on 12/30.
It takes about two or three days to frack a well. Assume two wells per crew per week. That would be 12 wells a week for 6 crews, or somewhere around 48 wells in a four-week month. Keep in mind that’s on top of whatever fracking crews are in the field now.
Above graph shows the average daily production in North Dakota statewide and in the Bakken field. Output in November dropped to 1,033,693 bopd from October production of 1,043,318 (revised), a change of 9,625, or down 0.92%.
Mr. Lynn Helms has some observations, reported by Amy Dalrymple, ND Oil Production Stays Above 1 Million Barrels in November.
Continue reading “Oil production in North Dakota drops 1% in November”
The rig count is slowly increasing. Not a dramatic increase and nothing like the high point, but a noticeable change from the mid-20s in the spring and the 30s during the summer and fall.
By the way, this explains the slight change in employment in Williston mentioned in the previous post.
Here is a recap of the North Dakota rig count, all from Million Dollar Way, other than during my trip to Williston in November 2016.
Continue reading “North Dakota rig count trending up in late 2016”
Previous post described a well pad southwest of Williston that holds 14 working wells. These are referred to as the Atlanta wells.
I got some great pictures of the site from the air and from the ground on my recent trip to Williston. Million Dollar Way just updated the production information for the 14 wells. So, decided to bring all that info together.
If you want to find this mega-producer, the address is 4750 141st Ave. NW, Williston. If you want to drive there, be advised the road off the 85 shown on Google maps isn’t there anymore. You will need to take a nearby side street. Coordinates are 48.109623, -103.729930 if you want to look them up on Google maps. The pad is north of the Missouri River and west of the US 85 bridge over the river.
Statistical data
The Million Dollar Way has been following these wells for several years. Check out this post for background and production data:
Here is some statistical data for the wells.
Continue reading “14 wells on one site southwest of Williston, the Atlanta wells – part 2 of 2”
There is one site southwest of Williston that holds 14 working wells. They are referred to as the Atlanta wells. Check out the photo above and following.
If you want to find these things, the address is 4750 141st Ave. NW, Williston. Coordinates are 48.109623, -103.729930 if you want to look them up on Google maps. It is immediately to the north of the Missouri River close to the bridge on U.S. 85 crossing the river.
On my trip to Williston over Thanksgiving 2016 I was able to take some aerial pictures since I flew in on United flight from Denver, meaning we flew in to Williston from the south. I was also able to drive out to the site and take pictures from a public road immediately north of the site.
Continue reading “14 wells on one site southwest of Williston, the Atlanta wells – part 1 of 2”