We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
The final post at Million Dollar Way on December 27, 2014, The End Of The Blog, is no available on-line.
Bruce Oksol has decided to close his blog. All of the thousands of posts have been removed. At issue is hacking risk. He is seeing some sort of indicators that his site is about to get trashed. Apparently he’s gone through this before and is calling it a day.
Thank you Mr. Oksol for your prolific writing on the Bakken.
Continue reading “Million Dollar Way blog ends. Update: Still operating”
Here are two major, must-read articles on oil production and pricing for your consideration. One I’ve been holding a while and the other ran just this week.
First a few quick tidbits to keep in mind – 12/23 – Dickinson Press – Oil prices will affect fringe areas most: Break-even mark lower in heart of Bakken – Drilling at the margins of Bakken will be sharply reduced. In the four core counties, not so much.
For active wells, a price of $15 a barrel is sufficient to keep operating. Ponder that – $15 a barrel.
Keep that in the back of your mind as you read of Saudi officials who want to see current production in Bakken and Eagle Ford drop far enough to balance supply and demand of world oil.
The first big article:
12-22 – Wall Street Journal – Behind OPEC Decision, A Saudi Fear of U.S. Shale –
Saudi Arabia’s surprise move to maintain production and let oil prices collapse
… is a story of a budding rivalry, driven by what Saudi Arabia views as a threat posed by American energy firm …
according to the deeply reported article.
Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices #7 – two must-read articles”
There was another settlement last week for a wind farm owner killing a bunch of birds.
The slaughter of eagles and other protected birds is the reason wind turbines have the well-earned title of slice-and-dicer. One pundit calls them Cuisinarts.
The Associated Press reports: Wind farm operator PacifiCorp Energy pleads guilty in bird deaths at wind farms in Wyoming.
The Seven Mile Hill and Glenrock/Rolling Hills projects in Wyoming are owned and run by PacifiCorp Energy. The owner has entered a guilty plea to two counts of breaking the Migratory Bird Treaty Act.
Officials have counted the dead birds at those two facilities since 2009. How high is the count of shredded birds? The article says:
I think that count is incorrect. According to the criminal information complaint filed in the case, which is available in the federal PACER system, the total bird count at the two facilities is 336, which includes the 38 golden eagles. The two counts consist of one count for each facility.
The official position of New York State is to ban fracking for natural gas.
A December 19 editorial in the Wall Street Journal blasts the decision: Cuomo Bans Fracking – Editorial points out since regulators in New York State have decided that fracking possibly, perhaps, maybe, might have some danger that haven’t yet been established, they must ban fracking in the gas rich Marcellus Shale area of the state.
Ridicule alert
If you don’t like heaping helpings of ridicule poured on the heads of foolish leaders, you might want to skip the rest of this discussion. Might be better for you not to click the link to the WSJ editorial.
Okay, you’ve been warned. Continue reading “New York State bans fracking and economic growth”
(photo by James Ulvog. If my city boy eyes are working right, there are 4 pumps, two of which are producing, along with a drilling rig and a workover rig on that one pad. Can you find 48 million dollars and 6 million barrels of oil in the picture?)
A few more articles that I found interesting on what’s going on in the rockin’ Bakken:
12/9 – Wall Street Journal – North Dakota Energy Regulator Mandates Steps to Reduce Oil Volatility– NDIC issued rules requiring oil be treated to reduce vapor pressure to 13.7 psi. Excess gas will be burned off by heater-treaters heating the crude to 110 degrees.
A few updates on a few slice/dice/fry projects, as one observer calls them:
California
11/4 – ReWire – “Dead” Solar Plant May Rise From Grave – The joint owners of the Palen Solar Electric Generating System pulled their plan recently. One of the owners (Abengoa Solar) will buy out the other (Brightstar), revise the design, and resubmit their plan. That is the announced goal. The wing-toasting facility will be redesigned with one tower and the ability to store electricity using molten salt.
This would be Palen plan #3. The first was parabolic solar. The second was 3 warming towers. This will be only one solar collecting tower plus storage capacity.
10/30 – ReWire – Wind Project Pulled from San Bernardino Mountains – Continue reading “Update on wind and solar plants in California and North Dakota – solar #34”
Have a lot of articles to discuss about what’s going on in the energy area. Lots of turmoil and uncertainty at the moment. Here are a few articles, to help get caught up:
12/6 – Economist – Sheikh v Shale – Love the cover illustration! I’ll be rooting for the shale guy in the showdown.
Article gives credit to shale oil for the drop in gas prices and oil prices. Take a bow, all you frackers in Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian! A $40 drop in price moves $1.3 trillion a year from producers to consumers. That is a savings of around $800 a year for an average American, or equivalent to a 2% pay raise, according to the article
So much news about energy and oil prices and the damage caused by wind and solar power lately. Will try to get caught up in commenting on the fascinating news around us. In the meantime, here are a few articles about energy. By the way, one ought to be really careful when choosing to start a price war…
11/30 – The Telegraph; Ambrose Evans-Pritchard – Saudis risk playing with fire in shale-price showdown as crude crashes – Crude prices dropped to $66 in the wake of OPEC decided to maintain production levels. Rumors are the OPEC and Saudi goal is to cut the growth rate of US shale production from another million bopd to only a 500K bopd increase.
Check out the differing expectations for where the pricing vulnerability is in the U.S:
Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – Be careful what you wish for – 5”
For follow-up to my previous post on October oil production data in North Dakota, check out the Dickinson Press’ discussion of comments from Mr. Lynn Helms: Prices could plateau production: Hems says 2015 could be tough for oil.
Here are a few tidbits that help me understand what is going on around us:
Mr. Helms, who is director of the ND Department of Mineral Resources, didn’t think oil prices would drop this far.
Article says that on Friday sweet crude prices were $41.75 a barrel in North Dakota and $57.81 on the New York Mercantile.
Graphic at the Bakken Magazine says on Friday the Brent price was $62.05 and Cushing was $57.99. I’m slowly catching on (but you already knew that), so that graphic tells me that the Cushing price is also called the West Texas Intermediate index.
Rig count
Continue reading “More info from 12/14 Director’s Cut – Indicators for near term”
Total production in October 2014 averaged 1,182,174 bopd. That is down a smidgeon (2,461 bopd) from the preliminary of 1,184,635 in September, and down a smidgeon more (4,054 bopd) compared to the slightly revised 1,186,228 amount for September.
Here is what the total and Bakken-only production looks like:
The Director’s Cut each month has narrative on the month along with more statistical data. The December report is here.
Price of sweet crude
Continue reading “North Dakota oil production in October ’14 plateaus, likely for the winter”
There are wonderful things going on in the tech world. Also some not so great things in education and publishing. Here’s a few articles on the good and not-so-good stuff.
Technology
12/8 – Economist – Free the drones / Drones have immense commercial potential—so long as regulators don’t try to tether them to the ground
Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers – 12/12”
A commenter on my blog has asked a few questions. We have a pleasant discussion running.
Yesterday he asked if the amount of oil is finite.
As I started to reply, I just kept writing and writing. Decided to move my comment to a separate post so the conversation is more visible.
On December 9, Stig Helmer (self-identification) said: Continue reading “A discussion about finite oil”
Not much in the news lately on the crushing effect of overregulation on the newly legal industry of recreational marijuana. (You now know my opinion and can filter my comments accordingly.)
This post will catch up on a few older articles.
11/8 – The Economist – The Marlboro of marijuana – The legal cannabis industry is run by minnows. As liberalisation spreads, that may not last – Here are a few more regulatory restraints that will strangle the industry: Article says that in Colorado, dispensaries have to grow at least 70% of what they sold and growers had to sell at least 70% of what they grew. That recently changed.
(All photos by James Ulvog. Above view of 4 pads, with a pair of flares visible in the middle and workover rig on pad in lower left.)
Following post was written on October 18, when my wife and I flew out of Williston:
We took a 6:25 a.m. flight, so it was still dark. The view on departure was fabulous.
I wish I had the camera equipment (and the skill) to show what I saw.
Words will have to suffice, along with photos taken during daylight.
Sky was clear until several minutes from the airport, then clouds slowly built up.
Drilling rigs are quite visible, what with those tall metal superstructures and the working deck all lit up. Sorta’ like an all white Christmas tree.
Continue reading “The visual appearance of a million barrel a day oil field”
The Wall Street Journal has a delightful editorial today on Peak Oil. That prompted me to pull together several articles I’ve been wanting to talk about.
Just in case you wondered, the devotees of Peak Oil are alive and well. Many of the big names are reportedly in hiding. Do a few minute search on the ‘net and you can still find a lot of them. I’ve had a dialogue over the last few days with one gentleman on my blog.
Haven’t pointed out the foolishness of Peak Oil doctrine since July, so it’s time to look again. Here we go…
12/5 – Wall Street Journal – ‘Peak Oil’ Debunked, Again – And again. And again.
Gotta’ love the opening paragraph:
It has been 216 years since Thomas Malthus gave birth to the idea that mankind’s appetite for natural resources would outstrip nature’s capacity to supply them. There have since been regular warnings that the world is running out of soybeans, helium, chocolate, tunsgsten, you name it—and that population growth has become unsustainable. The warnings create a political or social panic for a while, only to be proved wrong.
Peak Oil is the current fad of ‘we will run out by the day after tomorrow.’
The run up in oil over the last several years to a high of around $112 this past summer has encouraged entreprenuers, or perhaps we should call them petroprenuers, to figure out how to get massive amount of shale oil out of the ground. Continue reading “Peak Oil debunked over and over and over again – #37”