May 2015 – Outrun Change

Background on comparing costs and prices across time

I often make comparisons of costs or prices across time on this blog. Doing so is difficult. I just found two resources to help understand how to do a better job.

The value of money in colonial America from the UNC School of Education explains the British currency system based on pounds. Because mercantilism was the predominant thought on how to gain wealth, manufacturing in the 1700s was done in the home country and raw materials were exported from colonies. (How much mercantilism held back the economy in the home country and every colony is a discussion for another day.)

This made manufactured goods extraordinarily expensive. Things we would think were high-priced were actually inexpensive.

For example most people could afford to buy land and build their own home but few people could afford imported sheets.

The article suggests looking at probate documents to see how things were valued. Continue reading “Background on comparing costs and prices across time”

North Dakota’s “big trigger” tax reduction not going to get pulled

(Poorly focused photo by James Ulvog. Workover rig, one pumpjack ready to go, and three not yet complete. Gonna’ be lots of wells on that pad.)

Big drop in tax on produced oil in North Dakota won’t happen. Also a recap of the tax rates on oil.

5/29 – Associated Press at Bakken.com – Oil price increase means North Dakota tax trigger won’t hit – If crude oil prices are below a certain threshold, currently $55.09 for five consecutive months there would be a dramatic reduction in the tax on oil produced in the state.

Prices have been running below that cut off for January through April. During May the key index has been above the cutoff.

Continue reading “North Dakota’s “big trigger” tax reduction not going to get pulled”

More good stuff on the open frontiers – 5/29

A few articles on the astoundingly open frontiers of technology and private space exploration.

Technology

5/21 – Popular Mechanics – Brain Implant Lets Teraplegic Man drink Beer with a Robot Arm – Although this is a little bity step, consider what a huge leap it is from what could be done before.

Sensors attached to a man’s head pick up electronic signals corresponding to him wanting to move his arm. Those signals control a robotic arm to move a cup of water up and toward him so that he can take a sip.

Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers – 5/29”

The energy future is so bright we may have to trade in our sunglasses for welder’s goggles

Here are two resources I came across on the same day that point to why the future is so incredibly bright that regular sunglasses might not be enough:

Shale 2.0 – Technology and the Coming Big-Data Revolution in America’s Shale Oil Fields, by Mark Mills, of the Manhattan Institute

Economic Impact and Legal Analysis of the Shale Oil and Gas Activities in Mexico, preliminary report – by University of Texas San Antonio and others. Prof Thomas Tunstall is the principal investigator and Javier Oyakawa is the lead investigator at UTSA.

I have just started reading both of the reports. Plan to finish them in the next few days and will have more to say then.

A couple of initial thoughts:

The Manhattan Institute study suggests the shale revolution of the last five or seven years is barely getting started. The technological innovations in the last couple of years are going to accelerate.

Continue reading “The energy future is so bright we may have to trade in our sunglasses for welder’s goggles”

More on the revolution in energy, specifically shale oil

It is astounding to watch what is happening in the energy arena. U.S. petroprenuers have kicked off an energy revolution.

The staggering idea is this whole shale thing could just be getting started. Consider the following:

5/26 – Mark Perry at Investors Business Daily – Saudis’ Drive to Kill U.S. Shale Has Backfired – Prof. Perry points out the Saudis have now acknowledged their goal was to take out shale production. They think they have substantially succeeded based on the drop in recount.

I think the conceptual error is to assume there is a direct correlation between rig count and production. There are so many fallacies in that concept.

The ironic thing is there is a huge fracklog of wells drilled but are awaiting completion. As soon as prices come up a bit (exact point we may soon find out) there are a lot of wells for which it will be economic to finish. In North Dakota there are around 800 wells that just need to be fracked and they can come on the market. For context that’s just under half a years worth of new drilling.

One of the highly unintended consequences is to accelerate efficiencies and technological innovation. The article calls attention to those factors.

Continue reading “More on the revolution in energy, specifically shale oil”

More good stuff on the Bakken – 5/27

Here’s a few quick notes on interesting news from the North Dakota oil fields:

Rig counts actually going up –

5/20 – Million Dollar Way – Another Post-Boom Low — 80 Active Rigs; Eleven (11) New Permits; Slawson Proposing A 11-Well Pad In Big Bend Oil Field – 80 rigs

5/22 – Million Dollar Way – Eleven (11) New Permits – Count of rigs is up to 82.

5/26 – Million Dollar Way – Five (5) New Permits – Rig count up to 84.

I wonder if the drilling is now in a plateau. A few more articles on point:

Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – 5/27”

More tidbits on the foolishness of rooftop solar

Here are two more articles pointing out the risks to the electric grid and economic destruction of rooftop solar. Didn’t realize how big a mess I would find when I started this series of posts!

4/18 – New York Times – Solar Power Battle Puts Hawaii at Forefront of Worldwide Changes – The huge increase in solar power generated from rooftops in Hawaii is creating instability in the grid across the islands. The capacity and output from homes is invisible to the electric companies, which makes it increasingly difficult to maintain stable power.

You can translate ‘risk’ as an increased chance of random spikes, brownouts, and blackouts.

Continue reading “More tidbits on the foolishness of rooftop solar”

Observation on third trip to Williston

(All photos by James Ulvog, shot in May 2015.)

My wife and I took a short vacation to Williston last week, which was mid May. Got out of town before the temperature dropped below freezing after all day rain with snow following.

It seemed there may have been some slowdown in the number of vehicles and general activity as we moved around town. But that could just be confirmation bias? Maybe I saw what I wanted to see.

Two things I know I saw.

First there is a tremendous number of apartments, duplexes, and houses close to done or just recently occupied on the west side of town around 26th Street and 32nd Avenue. We are talking several complexes of several hundred units each. There are a half-dozen streets a few blocks long of duplexes.

Second thing I noticed was a number of signs on apartments advertising units available.

Here is just one such sign: Continue reading “Observation on third trip to Williston”

More good stuff on the Bakken oil field – 5/18

A few articles on what’s going on in Bakken:

5/5 – Dickinson Press – Stark County wind energy permit rejected – Previously mentioned 87 slice-and-dicers operated by Dickinson Wind LLC, a sub of NextEra Energy were moving toward construction. Project has a buyer for the electricity, which I’m slowly learning is one of the biggest hurdles to clear.

With one abstention, the Stark County Commissioners unanimously denied a conditional use permit. An outpouring of public complaints persuaded the commissioners to vote down the application.

5/5 – Bismarck Tribune – Communities continue to expand in and around the oil patch – Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken oil field – 5/18”

March oil production in North Dakota increases 12K bopd

The preliminary March production info is in – average daily production increased to 1,190,538 bopd from a very slightly revised 1,170,082 bopd in February. That increase of 12,501 bopd essentially offsets the decrease of 13,116 bopd in February.

Here is a graph of current production on a long-term perspective:

The peak in December 2014 was 1,227,529 bopd. March 2015 production is a drop of 36,946 bopd.

Last few months look kinda’ sorta’ like a plateau, doesn’t it?

Take a look at the following production graph. Do you suppose that is the change that OPEC wanted to see when they decided to maintain production in order to crush the American shale sector?

Continue reading “March oil production in North Dakota increases 12K bopd”

Minor updates on Powerwall battery

A few more tidbits on the new batteries from Tesla I discussed here, here, and here. Accumulating the info here in case I go into more detail in the future.

5/1 Bloomberg News – SolarCity Taking Orders for Tesla Batteries Starting at $5,000 – You can place an order now for a Powerwall backup battery. The 10 kWh backup can be purchased for $7,140. Price for just the battery is $3,500, so the inverter and installation will run you $3640. Installation only runs about $1,500 I think, which means the inverter is running around $2,000. Need to add that into all of the previous calculations I made. That further reduces the economic value of batteries, solar, and going off-grid.

5/6 – Bloomberg News – Tesla’s New Battery Doesn’t Work That Well With Solar – Continue reading “Minor updates on Powerwall battery”

More good stuff on the open space and technology frontiers – 5/12

Several fun articles on space and one on self-driving trucks

4/18 – Commented previously that SpaceX’s third try to recover a Falcon booster rocket failed. It came down too fast, was unstable, and exploded. SpaceX already knows the problem. Elon Musk sent a tweet on 4/18 that said

Cause of hard rocket landing confirmed as due to slower than expected throttle valve response. Next attempt in 2 months.

Problem identified. I am sure the solution will be implemented 5 or 6 weeks before the next launch.

Very cool.

5/6 – Spaceflight Now – Video: Dragon test articles flies pad abort profile – Continue reading “More good stuff on the open space and technology frontiers – 5/12”

Get control of every domain that refers to your name, including all extensions

Back in 2013, I offered An illustration why you should gain control over your name on the ‘net, both through buying domain names and reserving your name at social media sights (oops, meant to say sites!).

To illustrate the concept that you should grab control over your name on the ’net, I pointed out a pro-Second Amendment activist who bought a domain and turned it into a pro-gun website to poke fun at an anti-gun politician.

The domain?

www.senatorfeinstein.com

I just checked that address and found out it is a dead link. It used to be an advocacy site. However, the joke (if you are into such things) and the point (which is the reason for this post) stand.

(cross post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update)

In recent weeks, a politician from the opposite side of the aisle got zinged. She is former head of a large technology company. Someone grabbed a domain including her name and put up a one-page site criticizing how many people were laid off during her tenure.

The domain? Continue reading “Get control of every domain that refers to your name, including all extensions”

More good stuff from the wide open energy frontier – 5/8

Some articles on the amazing things going on in the energy world: oil factories, fracklog, greener fracking and calculating the Saudi cash burn rate.

5/6 – Russell Gold at Wall Street Journal – What the Future of Oil Drilling Will Look Like – think “oil factory”. Liberty resources is developing a 10,000 acre complex that will have 96 wells when complete. It will be called Stomping Horse.

A pipeline corridor will link all the drill sites to each other allowing oil and natural gas to be gathered to one location. Freshwater can be pumped from a central location and saltwater gathered by pipe at the disposal well.

Continue reading “More good stuff from the wide open energy frontier – 5/8”

Month: May 2015