Outrun Change – Page 59 – We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Update on marijuana regulation – #17

As a reminder, I’m watching the legalization of recreational marijuana to see what effect heavy-handed regulation has on a newly legal industry. My hypothesis? Overbearing regulation will restrict, if not strangle, an emerging industry.

4/9 – New York Times – Marijuana Taxes Won’t Save State Budgets – The governor’s office has dropped their estimate of taxes from recreational marijuana sales for the year ending June 30, 2015 from $118M back in February 2014 to $69M now.

That is a mere 0.2% of the state budget, less than a quarter of one percent. The trivial amount massively undercuts the concept that pot taxes will be a big help for state budgets, which is one of the secondary reasons touted to legalize marijuana.

Continue reading “Update on marijuana regulation – #17”

Dropping oil prices slow down North Dakota economy from previous breakneck speed

Rapid drop in drilling activity is backing off the economy in the Bakken oil patch from crazy out of control growth to merely the level of economic boom most places in the country would love to have seen anytime in the last 5 years.

4/18 – Star Tribune – In wake of oil slump, watchful North Dakotans adjust expectations – Title could have been Williston backs down from crazy out of control growth to merely as wild as four years ago.

The state jobs service in Williston has twice as many openings as applicants. Continue reading “Dropping oil prices slow down North Dakota economy from previous breakneck speed”

Supreme Court to hear arguments whether feds can continue to take raisins without compensation

For reasons that defy logic, common sense, and basic morality, the federal government still has in place a New Deal era policy that raisin farmers must turn over some percentage of their crop to the federal government without compensation.

The purpose of the program is to increase prices to consumers.

No, this isn’t an April Fool’s Day post.

No, I’m not making this up.

George Will points out in his April 17 article, Shriveled grapes, shriveled liberty, the Supreme Court will finally hear oral arguments next Wednesday (4/22) on a case that has been in court for years.

Continue reading “Supreme Court to hear arguments whether feds can continue to take raisins without compensation”

More on the economic damage caused by solar and wind power

Still have more catching up to do on describing the damage caused by wind and solar power. Here are two articles on the economic disruption involved.

11/29 – Forbes – Levelized Cost of Electricity: Renewable Energy’s Ticking Time Bomb? – I don’t quite understand the whole concept, but apparently there is a new technique in circulation that cooks the cost of renewable energy.

The core error is based on the idea that there are several times a year when the cost of electricity goes skyhigh for a short time. Those peaks in prices are what makes the power plants profitable. If the electricity is not available at those minutes, the bottom line for the year suffers.

Continue reading “More on the economic damage caused by solar and wind power”

More good stuff on open frontiers – 4/17

The frontiers of private space travel, technology innovations, and the education revolution are amazing to watch. Here are a few articles that caught my eye that I thought are worth a mention of the frontiers that are wide open today:

Space

4/14 – Popular Mechanics – Elon Musk: Falcon 9 Landed “Too Hard for Survival’ – Getting closer to success… The third attempt to land the first stage of SpaceX’s rocket didn’t quite work. The rocket landed on the barge, but apparently hit too hard for the rocket to be reusable. First reports don’t give much more info. The video feed shows the rocket trying to maneuver to the remain completely vertical right before landing, which is probably an indication of some minor issue in addition to too much speed.

A few more tries and then success and then a radical drop in the cost of space flights.

4/15 – Behind the Black – Why SpaceX’s first stage failure is really a magnificent success – Longer video of landing show the rocket was not maintaining straight vertical position. Thus it was wobbly when touching down, fell to the side, and exploded. That is progress. Continue reading “More good stuff on open frontiers – 4/17”

More on the environmental and ecological devastation caused by solar power

I’ve been remiss in my coverage of the damage caused by wind and solar power. Have lot of articles to discuss. Will get started with articles I’ve accumulated on wing toasting solar power.

2/24 – Investors Business Daily – Crispy Critters – Nevada Solar Plant Not For The Birds – The Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project near Tonapah, Nevada is scheduled to open in March. During a test run, it fried 130 birds. Here is a mental exercise to understand the lack of outrage you have noticed: Continue reading “More on the environmental and ecological devastation caused by solar power”

North Dakota oil production drops 1.2% in February, or 14K barrels a day

Numbers are out for February 2014. Average production in February was 1,177,094, which is down 14,104 from the very slightly revised January amount.

Here is the production in graphs:

For a longer term perspective:

Using the average sweet price mentioned in the Director’s Cut, here is the value of monthly production.

Reason for the drop in value is the price per barrel:

That slight recovery in current month is good but not a lot of help. On the other hand, at least the price isn’t still falling.

More graphs for February production are here.

Rig count and wells waiting for completion in North Dakota – 4/14/15

For more depth behind the slowdown in production mentioned in the previous post and a hint of what is to come, consider the count of drilling rigs in the field and the backlog of drilled wells that need to be completed. After drilling, the wells need to be fracked and then they start producing.

The count of wells is dropping fast:

As you look at the graph of estimated number of wells waiting to be completed (i.e. fracked), keep in mind state regs only allow a site to sit for a year before it must be completed. Otherwise it has to be plugged. That means there will be a surge of wells getting completed late in 2015.

Speculation is that if the ‘big trigger’ is pulled, dropping the tax on production, the completion activity will take off fast. Continue reading “Rig count and wells waiting for completion in North Dakota – 4/14/15”

More good stuff on Bakken – 4/14

A few articles on what’s going on the Bakken oil patch. Williston keeps growing. Rig count falling. Neither a surprise.

3/16 – BakkenShale.com – Population Grows 20% in Williston – Researcher Nancy Hodur of NDSU has done a tally of the total number of people in Williston and Williams County. She started with the census numbers and added hotels, man camps, and RV parks. Her estimate:

2012 2014 % chg area
25,915 31,143 20% Williston
44,308 52,778 19% Williams County

4/3 – Reuters Media at Dickinson Press – Clock keeps ticking toward North Dakota oil tax break – Continue reading “More good stuff on Bakken – 4/14”

How soon will Saudi Arabia blink? (dropping oil prices #14)

Here’s one summary to pull together the following five articles:

4/7 – Million Dollar Way – How Much Longer Can OPEC Hold Out? – Mr. Oksol points out the pressures on Saudi Arabia are growing. He previously pointed out that their fight with Yemen is costing a lot. They are buying lots of new F-15s and using up a lot of bombs. You can buy a lot more planes at $100 a barrel instead of $50.

His summary: Continue reading “How soon will Saudi Arabia blink? (dropping oil prices #14)”

Operating costs per hour for USAF planes

To support a side comment in previous article, I did a quick search on operating costs of fighters. For future reference in other articles, I’ll list some of the info here.

4/2/13 – Time magazine – Costly Flight Hours – This is the longest list I could quickly find. Author cites a researcher who volunteered the info he had gathered from official sources, so take it for what its worth. Cool official pictures for the planes, too. A few highlights:

Bombers: Continue reading “Operating costs per hour for USAF planes”

Brief introduction to the Industrial Revolution

I am increasingly interested in economic history. We are now in a place of prosperity and health that would have been unimaginable 300 years ago and barely comprehensible two generations ago. How did we get to a place of such wealth?

If we can figure out an answer to that question it will be easy to figure out how to sustain what we now enjoy. More importantly, if we figure out how those of us who enjoy prosperity got here, we have a better chance of sharing it with other people living in countries more reminiscent of life 500 years ago.

I’ve been reading a lot of economics lately. You can tell from the blog posts. I want to write more on the topic.

Here is a great article on how we got here:

3/27 – A Fine Theorem – “Editor’s Introduction to The New Economic History and the Industrial Revolution,” J. Mokyr (1998) – The post describes a lengthy description of the Industrial Revolution. More on the underlying document in a moment.

The linked article gives a great summary. Here are the five major points in the article with a few aha! ideas that registered in my simple brain: Continue reading “Brief introduction to the Industrial Revolution”

Current status of Keith Graves, one of the main people in documentary “The Overnighters”

Updates: Multiple updates through conviction and sentencing.

Update 5/19/16: Convicted human trafficker Keith Graves has been moved to a federal penitentiary. Mr. Graves is confined in Victorville Medium II Federal Correctional Institution.

We can drop the word alleged from our discussions of Mr. Graves’ actions while he was living in North Dakota.

Update: Welcome to those arriving on this page via internet search after watching the documentary on PBS. There are many posts I’ve written about The Overnighters. Enjoy!

If you watch the superb documentary “The Overnighters”, you will find that one of the central players is a man by the name of Keith A. Graves. Since the documentary was released he has gotten a lot more public attention and will be in the news even more over the next few months.

I am going to extend my discussion of the documentary beyond what I’ve mentioned before. I’ve been wanting to talk about more things for a long time. My new posts will not be in chronological or logical sequence, instead I will build my coverage one piece at a time.

Because Mr. Graves is such a major part of the story covered in the documentary, I think it is worth following his story. This will reflect back into the documentary as well.

Update: Second superseding indictment adds additional count for another alleged trafficking victim.

Update: Third superseding indictment adds 11th count for the eighth alleged trafficking victim. Also adds a forfeiture claim.

Update 10/1 : Keith Graves trial still set for October 19

Update 10/16: Looks like Keith Graves’ trial is a go for this Monday, 10/19

Full disclosure

Continue reading “Current status of Keith Graves, one of the main people in documentary “The Overnighters””

The source of wealth, as explained by two musicians.

Frank Zappa and Bob Dylan explain where jobs, growth, prosperity, and wealth come from.

Hint: it isn’t from government.

“A Business Lesson by Frank Zappa”

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWXUatVuxQg&feature=player_detailpage]

[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWXUatVuxQg]

(Title: A Business Lesson By Frank Zappa – youtube name in case link fails: TWXUatVuxQg )

(Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWXUatVuxQg )

He puts out $250,000 of his own money to get a tour ready. He takes all that risk expecting it will pay off later. Here’s the deal: Continue reading “The source of wealth, as explained by two musicians.”