We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
Well, that was a rough week for private space exploration. First, an Orbital Sciences rocket exploded seconds after liftoff. Then Virgin Galactic lost a space ship along with one crew member and another injured.
10/31 – Los Angeles Times – ‘Tough day’ for space travel as Virgin Galactic’s spaceship crashes – Continue reading “Tough week in the open frontier of private space travel”
The grand natural experiment in regulation of a new industry continues. Oregon, Alaska, and D.C. legalized recreational marijuana on Tuesday.
For concepts such as whether excessive regulation strangles business or not, it would be great to run a huge experiment: let one state our metro area run with heavy regs and another run with light regs; watch for a few years; measure results; then repeal both laws while you study the result.
Doing so would be terribly disruptive, likely illegal, and actually cruel to whichever group suffered poor results.
So what to do? Watch what happens in a locality, region, or state when a new policy is implemented.
That’s what we have in Washington, Colorado, and now Oregon and Alaska. There is a huge natural experiment to see what happens when heavy regulation is imposed on the newly legal industry of providing recreational marijuana.
Continue reading “Two more states legalize – Update on marijuana regulation #10”
(Photo by James Ulvog; five more reasons why gas prices are going down.)
This is second of several posts on the drop in oil prices. Not to worry – human ingenuity will kick in again as prices drop.
10/31 – Bakken.com – Fracking is saving Americans billions of dollars – The American Petroleum Institute estimates that without fracking, crude oil prices would be somewhere between $12 and $40 a barrel higher. That means Americans would otherwise be paying around $250 billion a year more in energy costs.
10/30 – Wall Street Journal – Energy Boom Can Withstand Steeper Oil-Price Drop – Some drillers in the U.S. will have trouble as prices drop and some locations may not be economical, but there are huge numbers of drillers who own huge numbers of sites that will be profitable at lower prices that we see today.
Check out the range at which drilling is still profitable; data from the article and a cool chart: Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – 2”
(Photo by James Ulvog – 2 pump jacks in operation, 2 more being assembled, 1 workover rig, 1 drilling rig – That site will hold an investment of around $54M or $60M when finished and will produce somewhere between 3 million and 6 million barrels of oil during its useful life.)
Oil production in North Dakota set another record in August 2014. Total production in the state averaged 1,132,331 barrels per day. Production in Bakken only was 1,068,609 bopd. That is a 1.61% increase statewide and 1.70% in Bakken-only.
Very cool.
On 9/23, I described the prediction from Bentek: Another short term production prediction for Bakken. Time to see how that turned out.
Continue reading “Update on a short term production prediction”
(Photo by James Ulvog; 4 teeny tiny slivers of explanation for why gas prices are going down.)
This is first of several posts on the drop in oil prices. What will that do to U.S. production? Amount of new drilling?
10/9 – The Feed – When Should U.S. Shale Producers Worry? –
(Out of focus and tilted photos by James Ulvog)
I enjoy looking at older buildings. They usually have ornate brickwork. I think they are beautiful works of art.
Here are a few views of buildings in downtown Williston for your enjoyment. From Main and Fourth, looking south toward Broadway:
At Fourth and Main: Continue reading “Old buildings in downtown Williston”
Two massive explosions to discuss in the frontiers I’m watching. One in private space exploration and the other in academia at UNC-Chapel Hill…
Both explosions make me sad. Unfortunately, one of them was intentional.
Space
Progress is never in a straight march forward –
10/28 – Space.com – Private Orbital Sciences Rocket Explodes During Launch, NASA Cargo Lost – An Antares rocket, Cyngus spacecraft, and NASA’s cargo were lost due to an explosion 6 seconds after launch. Previous resupply lifts to the ISS by Orbital Science have been successful. Fire officials let the fires burn themselves out to reduce danger to cleanup crews of dealing with unburned propellant.
Continue reading “Two humongous explosions in open frontiers I’m watching – space and education”
Wide open frontiers: energy production and one-man documentary production company.
Worlds far away I’ll never visit – Film production
One of the worlds I can only observe from a distance is making a feature documentary. I’ve been watching Jesse Moss as he produced and then marketed his documentary The Overnighters. That is a story of a Lutheran church in Williston that opened its doors to (predominantly) men working in the Bakken but arrived without a place to stay.
I’ll start to mention some of the coverage of the movie that is most helpful for me as I learn about that world.
10/10 – Tribeca – Jesse Moss Talks “The Overnighters’ and Morality in the Heartland – Interview with Mr. Moss goes into detail about how the documentary was recorded. Interesting tidbits are how he had to re-edit the footage to tell the story differently when the final dramatic event changed the whole story.
Since I haven’t mentioned anything about the movie before, that may not make sense.
I’m looking forward to seeing the movie because I know something about Williston, the church involved, and the overnighter program.
One fascinating part of this story is that Mr. Moss found sources, conducted interviews, recorded video, and generally developed this documentary by himself. Post-production work involved a very small team, but until that time, he was the entire crew.
For this month, he is in a different town every few days appearing at theaters where the documentary is being aired.
Energy
10/21 – The Feed – North Dakota Races to Frack Better – Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers – 10/28”
(All photos by James Ulvog, shot in October 2014.)
Just like other areas of economic activity, farming deals with constructive assets deteriorating and being replaced.
Picture what these wonderful houses and barns looked like in their prime. Imagine how productive and helpful they were.
Continue reading “Creative destruction on the farm, with photos”
A few of the articles on the open frontiers of energy, education, and technology that caught my interest.
Technology
10/6 – The Freeman – Who’s Afraid of the Workers’ Revolution – Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers – 10/25”
(all photos by James Ulvog – Two pumps visible in photo; there are 8 pumps on 4 pads I could see along the road from where this photo was taken to the rig in the background)
(Photo of above rig from a few hundred feet down the road from the previous view, showing additional wells.)
I took a drive east of Williston on highway 1804. Drove about 20 miles after getting out of town. Two amazing things struck me.
Number of drilling rigs
First is the number of drilling rigs in operation. I would guess I saw about a dozen rigs. Of course with their height you can see them a few miles away.
Continue reading “A drive in the oil fields east of Williston”
(Photo by James Ulvog; one of three towers is in operation.)
Here are a few articles on the down side of solar energy: more categories of environmental damage / bulldozer moving forward a 6,000+ page plan for desert use / late coverage of cancelling another environmental disaster.
9/29 – PA Pundits International – Deroy Murdock – Earth-Friendly Energy Is Anything But – Article surveys the devastation caused by wind and solar power. In addition to many issues I’ve discussed on this blog, the article points out two more.
(Photo by James Ulvog)
While in Williston earlier this month, I saw the above sign in front of Wal-Mart saying they are paying $17 an hour to start. I hear starting pay for night stockers is $19 an hour.
My guess from what I heard while in town is $17 at Wal-Mart is the starting, minimum wage for new arrivals in town. With their staffing need, that might also be the first job upon arriving in town for lots of people.
The Williston Herald had a great article on employment issues in North Dakota: “Labor shortage forcing some restaurants to close”. The article was in the 10/17/14 paper but I couldn’t find it online.
(All photos by James Ulvog.)
Last week (mid October) my wife and I visited Williston to see our son and daughter-in-law. Got to visit for five days.
This was our second trip to Williston. Our first visit was a year ago, in early October 2013.
I’ll post a series of articles with my observations.
Infrastructure gains
One noticeable change is the infrastructure is starting to catch up.
It was amazing to see the amount of new housing built in the last year. On the west side of town there are an astounding number of large apartment complexes.
Here is one complex of four large buildings of which one is out of view (4 stories each of around 15 units per floor) under construction.
(photo by James Ulvog; the area between the buildings and streets
will be filled with car garages. The concrete is already poured.)
Continue reading “My second visit to Williston – October 2014”
Guess what? Lowering the price on something means you can sell more of it and make more money.
That applies to paperbacks when they first came out and it applies to e-books today. Well, it actually applies to practically everything.
Know what else? Anyone who wants to publish a book can do so. Anyone. For astoundingly low cost. The publishing frontier is wide open. Thank you Amazon.
In August, Amazon sent an e-mail to people using their Kindle Direct Publishing service. (By the way, if you aren’t already a best seller and want to ever get your book published, you really, really ought to go the e-book route with KDP. It is awesome.)
Back to the e-mail.
Since it went out to tens or hundreds of thousands of people, I will take the liberty to quote it.
Some history: Continue reading “Paperback books and e-books; more on the dispute between Hachette and Amazon”