We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
(Photo by James Ulvog; 4 teeny tiny slivers of explanation for why gas prices are going down.)
This is first of several posts on the drop in oil prices. What will that do to U.S. production? Amount of new drilling?
10/9 – The Feed – When Should U.S. Shale Producers Worry? –
Wide open frontiers: energy production and one-man documentary production company.
Worlds far away I’ll never visit – Film production
One of the worlds I can only observe from a distance is making a feature documentary. I’ve been watching Jesse Moss as he produced and then marketed his documentary The Overnighters. That is a story of a Lutheran church in Williston that opened its doors to (predominantly) men working in the Bakken but arrived without a place to stay.
I’ll start to mention some of the coverage of the movie that is most helpful for me as I learn about that world.
10/10 – Tribeca – Jesse Moss Talks “The Overnighters’ and Morality in the Heartland – Interview with Mr. Moss goes into detail about how the documentary was recorded. Interesting tidbits are how he had to re-edit the footage to tell the story differently when the final dramatic event changed the whole story.
Since I haven’t mentioned anything about the movie before, that may not make sense.
I’m looking forward to seeing the movie because I know something about Williston, the church involved, and the overnighter program.
One fascinating part of this story is that Mr. Moss found sources, conducted interviews, recorded video, and generally developed this documentary by himself. Post-production work involved a very small team, but until that time, he was the entire crew.
For this month, he is in a different town every few days appearing at theaters where the documentary is being aired.
Energy
10/21 – The Feed – North Dakota Races to Frack Better – Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers – 10/28”
Just like the wild west in the late 1800s, the frontiers of private space exploration, energy and technology are wide open. Here are a few of the articles that stretched my understanding of this amazing world we live in. A brief comment on each.
Space
8/21 – Wall Street Journal – Mining Asteroids and Exploiting the New Space Economy – Dr. K. Dean Larson – Asteroids contain water, titanium, iron, platinum, and lots of other resources needed to build things and sustain life in space. What’s the big deal?
Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers – 8/26”
Just like the wild west in the late 1800s, the frontiers of publishing, technology, and energy are wide open. Here’s a few of the articles that stretched my understanding of this amazing world we live in. Just a brief comment on each.
Downside of technology
Yes, there is a downside.
7/30 – Yahoo – Drone Carrying contraband crashes at SC prison – Drone carrying cell phones, marijuana, synthetic marijuana (huh? what is that?), and tobacco crashed outside the fence of a prison. Article mentions a successful effort to get contraband inside a Georgia prison last year.
Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers – 8/15”
Update: Some commenters on the ‘net did not agree with a graph that combines gas and oil. Fair point. I’ll redraw the graph to include only crude oil.
The new graph does not change any comment made in this post. It stands as is.
Peak oil is still a failed concept.
Here is the new graph:
Again, here is the main question: Where is the inverted V drop after the peak that mirrors the runup to the high point?
Answer: It isn’t there.
2nd Update: I appreciate folks pointing out the error of my ways. Further research produced the above graph which makes the point yet again. I also looked at natural gas production.
The fail of Dr. Hubbert’s theories is even more extremely illustrated by graphing natural gas production. Comparing actual to his predictions is staggering. Another post on Monday.
Two busted Hubbert theories from one post. Peak Gas is even more of a fail than Peak Oil.
3rd update: Further discussion of the Peak Oil graph on the following post.
Original post:
Saw a graph containing production of oil and gas in the U.S. since 1950. Since that one is copyrighted, decided to make my own.
Check out this graph of the amount of crude oil, natural gas (dry), and NGPL from 1949 through 2013:
Now, please look for the permanent, inevitable decline trending to zero after the never-to-be-achieved-again peak oil point of 1970. Also look for the inverted-V shaped drop after the peak that mirrors the runup.
If you want to see what a radical change is underway in the energy field, check out this graph of combined oil production from the three biggest plays, Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian:
That’s from America’s Amazing Shale Revolution in one chart by Carpe Diem and is used with permission.
Does fracking a well to generate huge amounts of crude oil and natural gas so we can drive our cars and heat our homes take a lot of water?
You bet.
Add up all the water we use across the country for fracking. It’s a lot. However, we use more than that for irrigating golf courses or watering the lawns at our homes.
Compared to what?
Brace yourself for this chart, used with permission from Carpe Diem: Energy chart of the day: America’s shale oil revolution will reverse a 40-year decline in crude oil output in just 5.5 years.
US energy production grew from around 1 million barrels of oil per day (1M bopd) in 1920 to a high point of 10.04M bopd in November 1970. A 40 year decline dropped production to around 5M or 5.5M bopd in 2010.
The shale boom has skyrocketed production to 8.3M bopd in April 2014. The EIA projects production will be pushing 10M bopd at the end of 2015.
Astounding.
What Peak Oil?
Continue reading “Shale oil revolution drives surge in domestic production – Peak oil #34”
Forbes has a superb article on the shale revolution in North Dakota and one of the drivers of said revolution: Harold Hamm: The Billionaire Oilman Fueling America’s Recovery.
For some great background why the Bakken field is producing nine times more oil than five years ago, check out the article.
There is great discussion of Harold Hamm and his role in creating the oil boom.
What has the shale boom done for the US?
Check out the benefits to the US of the shale oil boom: Continue reading “Background on Bakken and Harold Hamm”
It’s a wide open frontier in energy & education: why shale unlikely to boom elsewhere, U.S. getting greener because of shale, & one stat to show why higher education is in economic distress.
Energy
Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers in energy & education – 4-29”
Million Dollar Way has a complex post describing the increasing density of wells on each portion of land being drilled in North Dakota. Think 14 or 28 wells on 4 square miles. I’ll try to pull a few key ideas out of An Example of “Ears Pinned Back” — As CLR Calls It – In The Bakken.
Density in 2007
In ancient days, say about 2007, the concept was one well on a section. That according to the article.
Density in 2011
The change in oil production in the last few years is astounding. For perspective, look at the following two charts by Prof. Mark Perry, from his Carpe Diem blog. Both graphs used with permission:
Oil production in Texas:
From The remarkable rise of Texas crude oil: The state produced nearly one billion barrels last year, and 34.5% of all US crude. Just under a billion barrels. That’s around a third of US production.
Oil production in North Dakota took off in 2008: Continue reading “The shale revolution. Or, what Peak Oil? #33”
Greeley Tribute has a superb article explaining Fracking 101: Breaking down the most important part of today’s oil, gas drilling.
Excellent description of the multistage hydraulic fracturing process.
Bloomberg – North America to Drown in Oil as Mexico Ends Monopoly
Potentially another game changer for world-wide energy – – the Mexican legislature has changed national law to allow foreign investors to own oil reserves. This will draw the major oil companies with their talent, equipment, funding, and infrastructure. Speculation is oil production from Mexico could double in a decade.
Still some major obstacles, but the potential is huge. The Mexican government and her people could benefit tremendously. I really hope they handle this well, for their good and the good of everyone who uses energy.
Newsday – Remember the energy crisis? Fracking fixed it.
Notice that the constant stories of the “energy crisis” isn’t in the news anymore. If you were around in the ‘70s you remember long lines to buy gas on your assigned even or odd day. Crisis stories continued for years, through the entire Carter administration and beyond.
Naturally occurring shallow methane exists all across North Dakota. Methane in water wells has been a known condition for 100 years.
I don’t think fracking has anything to do with shallow methane 200 or 300 miles away. I seriously doubt fracking caused methane to seep into wells 80 years before fracking was used.
A video with over 400,000 views shows a guy lighting tap water on fire. Creator asserts he works in the North Dakota oil fields, which leaves you with the implication the methane in the water is caused by fracking. The commenters on the video quickly reach that scientific conclusion based on an unverified 54 second video from an undisclosed location.
Here’s the poorly known issue.