frontier is open – Page 3

Outlook for oil, some short-term and long-term thoughts

Tight Oil Production - Courtesy of Energy Information Administration — Tight Oil Production – Courtesy of Energy Information Administration

More news on the energy market. Supply and demand may equalize soon. Maybe.

Saudi Arabia may have bit off more than they can chew. The US and world markets will benefit, along with everyone who consumes energy.

7/1 – AP at Bakken.com – US energy secretary sees oil market coming into balance – The Saudi oil minister thinks worldwide demand will catch up with production by around the end of 2016. The US Energy Secretary thinks it will go into 2017, perhaps another year. Prices likely to go up as demand and supply stabilize.

7/18 – Wall Street Journal – Oil Prices Steady but Products Glut Looms – There are hints in the air that several markets, such as gasoline, are oversupplied, which will put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Another indication that nobody can predict the future.

7/31 – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph – Texas shale oil has fought Saudi Arabia to a standstill – This is a must-read if you follow my blog.

Twenty months ago Saudi Arabia launched a price war, generally considered to be an effort to take out American shale producers.

Didn’t quite work out that way.

Continue reading “Outlook for oil, some short-term and long-term thoughts”

Astounding new technology has arrived. Astounding old technology is fading away.

Production line for that world-changing plane could possibly close in a few years. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Ponder the remarkable contrast. We see phenomenal breakthroughs in space exploration almost weekly. On the other hand, the production line for the 747, the plane that opened up world travel to the masses, is slowing down and could be shuttered in a couple of years.

7/26 – Satellite Today – Sky and Space Global Details Vision for 200 Satellite LEO Network – The company, Sky and Space Global, plans to put 200 nanosatellites, or cubesats, into a low Earth orbit to provide a worldwide communications network. It is categorized as narrowband, providing only voice and messaging along with data forwarding.

Company estimates the cost for constellation of 200 satellites will be somewhere in the range of $120M up to $160M.

Continue reading “Astounding new technology has arrived. Astounding old technology is fading away.”

Yet another reason I am so optimistic when I take my eyes off the political news of the day: the energy revolution that keeps gaining speed.

One more illustration of the energy revolution currently underway. BTW, flaring is down to about 11% of all natural gas produced. Photo by James Ulvog. — One more illustration of the energy revolution currently underway. BTW, flaring is down to 9.2% of all natural gas produced. About 91% is captured, which shows great progress. Photo by James Ulvog.

When I look at the political news and the headlines in general news every morning, I get so discouraged. When I look away from those areas I am so optimistic.

Consider what the two following articles suggest about how bright our economic future could be: an abundant supply of oil and gas at increasingly lower cost to produce.

6/13 – JH at The American Interest – Resilient Shale Producers Get Their Second Wind – Article mentions a Financial Times article which indicates there is some increase in drilling, which is driven by prices a few weeks ago. Since then oil prices have come up further. Discussion speculates if prices remain in the $50 range there will be even more drilling.

The small-scale and short development time of shale wells creates a soft ceiling on prices. Shale production can increase quickly which will put supplies on the market quickly, which will counter a surge in prices.

A quoted analyst says his expectation is a long-term price of oil around $60. There will be fluctuations up to $80 and down to $40, but the price will tend toward $60. Drillers needing a price higher than that to be profitable will have a rough time.

Continue reading “Yet another reason I am so optimistic when I take my eyes off the political news of the day: the energy revolution that keeps gaining speed.”

Great news on the open frontier, private space exploration edition

Amazing news on the open frontier of private space exploration:

SpaceX recovers another two boosters at sea.

What to do with all those warehoused ICBM boosters?

Another investment in mining asteroids.

5/6 – NPR – SpaceX Lands Falcon 9 on a Barge at Sea (Again) – This is the second successful recovery of a Falcon 9 booster at sea. Another successful recovery was on land. After several failed efforts to recover on a floating barge, SpaceX has two successes in a row. Very cool.

5/27 – Florida Today – SpaceX lands fourth booster after successful Falcon 9 launch – This is the third consecutive recovery of a booster. These three recoveries were on a platform out at sea. One previous recovery was on land.

4/14 – Behind the Black – The history of Falcon 9’s recoverable first stage – Check out this cool video showing the less-than-four-year history of going from the first tiny test by Grasshopper to successful recovery of the Falcon 9 booster at sea:

Robert Zimmerman says:

Continue reading “Great news on the open frontier, private space exploration edition”

More amazing things on the open frontier of technology

A few fun things I’ve seen lately. Amazon announces it will soon open its 9th fulfillment center in California. Astounding video quality on a GIF presentation is close to photo quality.

3/15 – Behind the Black – Check out this animated video. Consider the question raised by Behind the Black – with this quality of animation, how soon until human actors aren’t needed because an apparently live action movie can be 100% animated?

[youtube=https://youtu.be/nPrWo5pEvyk]

As I mention the following two articles, ponder that I ordered something from Amazon early in the evening yesterday. It shipped this morning and will be delivered today.

Update: I ordered the items after 5 and they were delivered by 10 the next morning. Evening order, next morning delivery. Very cool.

3/30 – DailyBulletin (Inland Empire area of LA) – New Amazon fulfillment center coming to San Bernardino, to add 1,000-plus jobs – This will be the seventh facility in California. San Bernardino is about 60 miles east of downtown LA. Amazon locations in the state: Continue reading “More amazing things on the open frontier of technology”

The energy revolution driven by fracking isn’t over – 2 of 2

Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have turned the energy world upside down. The massive transition isn’t over. A few articles on the massive benefits of fracking. Part 1 of this discussion here.

2/14 – Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist – Low Oil Prices Are a Good Thing / The shale revolution has changed the world – Article explains that low oil prices are an incredible benefit for consumers across the world.

Pointing out news that is not news to anyone who has paid attention to the energy business in the recent years, article explains the current volatility is currently disrupting and will continue to disrupt many producers. A lot of producers will go out of business. Keep in mind that the drilling rigs, equipment, and especially the oil under the ground will not vaporize as a result. The know-how to more efficiently drill more productive wells more quickly more cheaply will be around a long time.

Article explains a cited book which makes the point that the shale revolution is just getting started. The improved efficiency producing higher output in the last two years has brought many producers to the point where they can be productive in the $30 or $40 range.

The technology has increased to the point that if prices rebound to slightly higher levels than where they are now would make it possible to bring horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing into conventional oil fields and produce increases there.

The net effect of all these amazing advances is that shale oil will put a cap on how far oil prices can rise. As prices go up a whole bunch of undrilled locations become lucrative.

3/1 – Mark Perry, Carpe Diem – Charts and Updates on America’s Amazing Shale Revolution, It’s Not over yet… – Astounding graphs, as usual.

Continue reading “The energy revolution driven by fracking isn’t over – 2 of 2”

2 more successful recoveries of space boosters

As Behind the Black likes to say, the competition heats up. Very cool.

4/3 – Tech Crunch – Blue Origin releases video from third launch and landing of New Shepard – Blue Origin successfully launched and recovered a booster again. This is the third launch and landing of that specific lift vehicle.

Blue Origin is Jeff Bezo’s space company.

The video:

[youtube=https://youtu.be/YU3J-jKb75g]

4/7 – Wall Street Journal – SpaceX Lands Portion of Spent Rocket on Floating Platform – SpaceX nailed the landing of its booster on a floating platform. They have had four failures to recover at sea and one successful recovery back on land (which required a lot of extra fuel). Was just a matter of time until they nailed it.

I do hope it will now become the norm to recover the lift stage.

Behind the Black provided the best link to video I’ve seen yet:

[youtube=https://youtu.be/sYmQQn_ZSys]

Oh, this launch also successfully delivered a load of cargo to the ISS. Delivery of cargo to space by private companies is old news. Still extremely cool.

Cool stuff on the open frontier of technology

A few fun things I’ve seen lately. Amazon opens its 7th fulfillment center in California. Animated short that is close to photo quality. GIF showing how applications have displace everything on a circa 1990 work station.

[youtube=https://youtu.be/nPrWo5pEvyk]

Update on OPEC strategy

Fascinating to watch news in February about OPEC’s strategy. First, IEA sees a drop of US shale oil in 2016 and 2017 with strong growth in output over the following four years.

I have quite a backlog of lot of articles on energy to discuss. Will try to get caught up. Here goes…

Article at the end of January indicated OPEC is publicly claiming things are going swimmingly well. Then Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to freeze their production at the January level, which is near record level of output for both countries. Then the end of February OPEC’s secretary-general acknowledged that the intentional goal was to wage a price war against US shale. Also acknowledged the price war hasn’t worked like they planned.

I don’t think that crippling the Russian, Saudi Arabian, and Venezuelan national budgets by dropping prices about 60% with no near-term expectation of recovery is quite what they had in mind.

2/22 – IEA sees oil market rebalancing in 2017; US production at record high by 2021 – The IEA forecasts that US production of light tight oil will fall 600k bopd in 2016 with another drop of 200k bopd next year. Forecast predicts an increase of 1.3M bopd over 2015 levels by 2021.

Continue reading “Update on OPEC strategy”

More on Aubrey McClendon and his powerful legacy

Legacy of Aubry McClendon: drilling for tight oil that was untouchable 20 years ago. Photo by James Ulvog.

A few more articles on Aubrey McClendon. He will be well-remembered as a key player in the world-shaking energy revolution in the U.S.

For background on Mr. McClendon and how he played a massive role in the energy revolution check out:

3/4 – Russell Gold at the Wall Street Journal – How Aubrey McClendon Led Today’s Energy Revolution – Article calls him not just an advocate but the chief apostle of hydraulic fracturing. He took the lead in fracking and grabbing lots of land to explore.

Continue reading “More on Aubrey McClendon and his powerful legacy”

Aubrey McClendon, R.I.P.

The legacy of Aubrey McClerndon, R.I.P. Well of a different company in a different state, yet still part of his legacy. Photo by James Ulvog. — The legacy of Aubrey McClendon, R.I.P. Well of a different company in a different state, yet still part of his legacy. Photo by James Ulvog.

May God pour out peace on the family and friends of Aubrey McClendon, former CEO of Chesapeake Energy, who died yesterday in an automobile crash.

I hope his family and friends will work through their tragic loss and find peace at the end of the journey.

Mr. McClendon was a pioneer in the radical transformation of the energy industry in the U.S., having been a leading entrepreneur in extracting natural gas and crude oil from rock that was untouchable before the 1990s.

Continue reading “Aubrey McClendon, R.I.P.”

China is a competitor in the open frontier of space exploration

Previously mentioned a lot of players are involved with cutting edge efforts for space exploration. Russia is still a player. So is China. Here are a few articles on the Chinese efforts:

1/11 – Behind the Black – China has big plans in space in 2016 – Summary of the following article. Recap says China has the goal of launching a new space station in 2016 and put staff on it along with initial launch of two new rockets.

1/11 – Parabolic Arc – China Plans Space Station & New Booster Launches in 2016 – Article gives a few more details on China’s plans for spaceflight in 2016: Continue reading “China is a competitor in the open frontier of space exploration”

Stretching my brain on the commercial space launch business

Ariane 5 liftoff for VA227 launch. Credit: Arianespace.

One of the major reasons I blog is to learn. Nothing stretches me more than reading a fascinating article and commenting in public on it. Putting my thoughts out on the never-to-go-away Internet requires a very careful reading of articles.

So if you want to stretch your brain too, stay tuned while I comment on Space News’s coverage on January 6 of a press conference: Arianespace Surpassed SpaceX in Commercial Launch Orders in 2015.

Launch rates

The organization’s CEO provided the following count of commercial orders for 2014. I think this is the count of launches into geo-stationary transfer orbit:

9 – Arianespace
9 – SpaceX

Article says that reflects Arianespace catching up with SpaceX.

Here is the count of 2015 contracts for geostationary launches: Continue reading “Stretching my brain on the commercial space launch business”

Why I am so optimistic – 3

The future is so bright we need sunglasses. Image courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

The number of people working in manufacturing has been declining for many years. Those job losses will continue at the same time as technology disrupts other industries causing the loss of more jobs.

This is not a new concept. Technological advances have devastated farm employment over the last 150 years.

(Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

Prof. Thomas Tunstall pondered Where the New Jobs Will Come From. Sub headline on his 11/4/15 article said:

In 2007 iPhone application developers didn’t exist. By 2011 Apple had $15 billion in mobile-app revenues.

Consider the percentage of the population employed in agriculture over time: Continue reading “Why I am so optimistic – 3”

SpaceX successfully lands a first stage booster

[youtube=https://youtu.be/ZCBE8ocOkAQ?t=6]

Space.com provides the great news: Wow! SpaceX Lands Orbital Rocket Successfully in Historic First. On December 21 SpaceX successfully launched 11 satellites into orbit. The secondary objective was to recover the first stage.

On the third attempt to do so, they successfully landed the first stage booster on land. After (not if, but when) they figure out how to do this routinely the cost of a space launch will drop radically. Article says the drop in cost could be in the range of a factor of 100.

One of the commenters on the following video gave this comparison: The flight on 12/21 is like launching a pencil over the Empire State Building, slowing down, and landing softly inside an area the size of a shoe box.

Continue reading “SpaceX successfully lands a first stage booster”