We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
Contrary to what I have been saying, it actually is possible for us to hit a peak in oil production followed by a dramatic drop in output leading to a perpetual decline in the available energy we have.
How?
We as a society can decide that’s what we want. Or our politicians can choose that for us. Or regulators can impose their choice.
I’ve noticed a number of articles in recent months that make that point. Consider the following.
Mark Perry shows what’s happened in U.S. oil production one simple graph.
It shows production in Texas, Alaska, California, and North Dakota, the top 4 oil-producing states, from 2002 through 2012: .
Check out the graph at Energy chart of the day: Shale oil production in North Dakota and Texas has boosted US oil production to a 17-year high.
Amazing.
Continue reading “Dramatic increase in oil production told in one graph”
A few days ago a friend of mine said the US could soon surpass Saudi Arabia in oil production. I had a hard time believing it, so didn’t give it much thought. My mistake.
Let’s look at his comment again.
An AP story today, US may soon be top oil producer in the world, says that US oil production is rising so fast that we could surpass Saudi Arabia soon.
The key sentence: Continue reading “Could the US surpass Saudi Arabia in oil production?”
A reader asked me about the production levels in Eagle Ford. That got me looking at my past posts and wanting to get some more info. So here’s the result of my checking.
I don’t yet know how to read the production data at the Texas Railroad Commission’s website. For other newbies like me, they are the regulators for oil drilling in Texas.
That means I will rely on reporting from others, like this info from Bloomberg on 9-21-12, Eagle Ford Oil Production Above 310,000 Barrels a Day in July:
Million Dollar Way points to an amazing article at drillingcontractor.org. It opens with a promo video for a National Oilwell Varco drilling rig. Check out the cool animation at the end on how their rig sets up.
The article has a lot of background on the Bakken field, different technologies involved, some discussion on the geology of the field, what some of the major players are doing, and lots of details on drilling. Much there is a stretch for me, but a very good stretch.
Continue reading “Great animation of a drilling rig setup and superb background on Bakken”
Incredible growth in shale production, both oil and gas, starting to have an impact on geopolitics. In his Wall Street Journal column, John Bussey expands on the idea: Shale: A New Kingmaker in Energy Geopolitics. He describes some of the ways that a dramatic increase in U.S. production is changing the world’s political dynamics.
One big change is the drop in oil imports:
190 – Bakken – from the current active drilling rig list at the N.D. Department of Mineral Resources website on 8-31-12.
274 – Eagle Ford – from EagleFordShale blog.
That is down 2 in Bakken and up 4 in Eagle Ford.
National rig count is 1,859 for 9-21-12.
Since I’ve started to pay attention to forecasts for the Bakken field, I’ll make note of one that is not so optimistic.
The Oil Drum has a post, Is Shale Oil Production from Bakken Headed for a Run with “The Red Queen?” that doesn’t see substantial increases in future output.
The forecast in that post is for production to stay at roughly the current level, which for July 2012 was 674K bopd state-wide and 609K bopd for Bakken only. Here are two key comments, the first from the findings and the second from immediately after the findings: Continue reading “Another forecast for Bakken production – we have probably already hit the peak”
The wizards of the oil industry can drill 4 or 6 or more wells on one pad. They’ve also developed self-propelled rigs.
So what, you ask?
That means less time to drill, far less surface disruption, less truck traffic, and more economical infrastructure.
It’s call pad drilling. Here is an illustration:
Photo: Chesapeake / Statoil. Used with permission.
There are 24 wells in that illustration, but the drilling was done from only 4 sites.
The Energy Information Administration discusses this in their article Pad drilling and rig mobility lead to more efficient drilling:
Continue reading “Multiple wells drilled on one site and walking rigs. Isn’t human ingenuity grand?”
Average daily production in North Dakota is 674,066 barrels of oil per day (bopd) in July.
The June data was adjusted up for late reporting. Now the June production is 664,618 bopd compared to the previously reported 660,322 bopd.
Continue reading “N.D. oil production hits 674K bopd in July 2012”
192 – Bakken – from the current active drilling rig list at the N.D. Department of Mineral Resources website on 8-31-12.
270 – Eagle Ford – from EagleFordShale blog.
Continue reading “Count of drilling rigs end of August 2012 – 192 and 270 for combined total of 462”
ExxonMobil pays about three times as much in taxes as it has in net income. So take whatever disparaging description you want to use for their profits and repeat that three times to describe their tax load.
Here is their total tax expense, from table 18 of their 2011 audited financial statements. All amounts in millions of US dollars: Continue reading “If ExxonMobil is making obscene amounts of profits, then I guess they are paying outlandish, outrageous, preposterous amounts of taxes”
Here’s another superb primer on hydraulic fracturing: Big Screen Energy: A Fracking Film Festival.
The graphics are great. In particular, there are three superb illustrations of the depths involved in drilling and the multiple layers of protective steel and cement. Check out the thousands of feet of rock between the water table and the horizontal run.
The brochure is from the EnergyFromShale.org website. I browsed the site and found this great video of the drilling and fracking process:
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YemKzEPugpk&feature=player_embedded]
Here’s the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YemKzEPugpk&feature=player_embedded
Here are a few of the tidbits I learned from the brochure:
How much steel and cement is used in each well?
Continue reading “2 more primers on fracking. Some good background on fracking from them.”
Proved U.S. oil reserves, without condensate, increased to 23.3 billion barrels at the end of 2010, according to a new report from the Energy Information Administration. The full report is here. The report and discussion on the ‘net is focused on 25.2 billion, which includes crude oil and lease condensate.
In 2009, proven reserves increased by twice the amount of oil we pulled out of the ground. In 2010, proven reserves increased by 2.5 times what we produced.
How can this be?
It is a mystery. Or magic must be involved. Or the oil fields are having babies, breeding like rabbits.
Continue reading “Must be magic. Proven reserves mysteriously increasing. Peak Oil #9”
208 – Bakken – from the current active drilling rig list at the N.D. Department of Mineral Resources website on 8-2-12.
270 – Eagle Ford – from EagleFordShale blog.
That is down 7 and down 8 since my June 30 post.
Don’t worry about the drop in rig count, which went from 493 in my last post to 478 now.