We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
Got back yesterday from another trip to Williston, North Dakota to visit our son and daughter-in-law. (Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)
Also got to spend a lot of time with our first grandson, who was born on February 8. (Our daughter-in-law pointed out he has a mathematical birthday: 2-8-16. Read that as 2 x 8 = 16.
He is an absolute delight. Quite a precious baby.
Bruce Oksol, of The Million Dollar Way, reports on his observations during his frequent trips to Williston. Comments from his February trip, with a few of my comments on his comments:
2/6 – First Day Back in the Bakken – Construction on the bridge across the Missouri seems to have stopped. By-pass on the west side of town is complete. He senses less oil rig traffic, Wal-mart is not as full as during the boom, but still quite busy, and less cars in the parking lots of nicer hotels. Restaurants are busy, but not anywhere like during the boom.
Sentencing was on February 17. Federal judge Daniel Hovland sentenced Keith Graves to 33 years 9 months in federal prison for five counts of human trafficking along with drug possession and distribution.
2/18 – Williston Herald – Man sentenced to 33 years for sex trafficking (online link not available) – Article says the feds asked for life. Judge ruled 33 years 9 months is the appropriate sentence. Article says he noted that is within federal sentencing guidelines.
Update: Viewable copy of above article: Dickinson Press – ‘Despicable’ sex trafficker gets 33 years in prison
Prosecutors claimed in the hearing there were “dozens” of additional victims, none of whom could be located for the trial. It looks like those victims were identified by review of the electronic devices confiscated from Mr. Graves. He denies those devices are his.
Mr. Graves says he will appeal the conviction. He also objected to several references to previous conviction (or convictions, not sure) for sexual offense.
I have not read the sentencing arguments filed by the US Probation Office. Last time I checked, the document was posted at the federal PACER system but not available to be read.
Sentencing guidelines
Continue reading “Keith Graves sentenced to 33 years 9 months”
I’ve been going through a backlog of energy articles that I haven’t had opportunity to comment on before. A great article last fall from The Million Dollar Way prompted me to look at what has happened to oil output since prices collapsed.
10/14/15 – The Million Dollar Way – Wednesday, October 14, 2015 – Part IV; Blue Skies – Article is from October. The underlying point stands. Look how little the monthly output has changed even though drilling activity has shrunk.
Here are some stats mentioned for October 15 with prior year numbers:
So production has collapsed, right?
Have lots of articles on the damage from wind and solar power I want to discuss. Background article on wing-toasters suggests we may not see any more concentrated solar towers blight landscape and destroy wildlife. Article has video of the ‘streamers’ killed by a solar tower – 14 are visible in 9 seconds.
Oh, the solar-powered Ivanpah facility burns so much natural gas that the project will have to participate in the state cap-and-trade program.
9/25/15 – Chris Clarke at ReWire – Are Solar Power Towers Doomed in California? – We can only hope.
Article gives deep background on the various concentrated solar power facilities actually built, planned, or abandoned in California.
There are currently two operating solar tower projects in California:
Article discusses a variety of other projects, with the only one that seems likely to move forward is the 500mW Palen Solar Electric Generating System, which at the time of the article was going to be built with parabolic trough design instead of the wing-toasting CSP towers. (In 2/16, regulators finally pulled the plug on the stalled project.)
CSP is providing only 4% of the solar power in the state.
The level of suffering in Venezuela is increasing. All of the blame for the current and future suffering can be laid at the feet of the socialist government.
Previously mentioned Venezuela is in the early stages of hyperinflation: Instead of reading about hyperinflation and economic collapse in history, you can watch it play out live. Tune in to Venezuela.
Some more discussion on the increased suffering:
2/6 – The Economist – The endgame in Venezuela – A few stats from the article:
Government acknowledges that for the 12 months ending 9/2015, inflation was 141% and the economy shrank 7.1%.
I have a plethora of articles on the wide range of economic, environmental, and biological harm caused by wind and solar power. Will try to get caught up. So much devastation. So little time.
3/2/15 – Coyote Blog – New Business Opportunity: Lolo’s Eagle and Waffles Next to Large Solar Plants – Post points to the following two articles. Those articles plus this headline suggest that if the solar plants can get away with killing eagles and other federally protected migratory birds, then perhaps there is a business opportunity from serving up the carcasses as exotic dishes at a nearby café.
2/18/15 – ReWire – Scores of Birds Killed During Test of The Project in Nevada – During a test on 1/14/15 at the Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project outside Tonopah, Nevada, federal biologists counted 130 streamers.
Now-convicted human trafficker Keith Graves is still scheduled for sentencing on Wednesday, February 17. That is the latest information visible on the federal PACER website.
A presentence investigation report was filed yesterday, 2/10, but is not available on the website. It is not noted as sealed. I don’t know the PACER system well enough to know what that means. Usually when something is posted it is available immediately.
Continue reading “Update on Keith Graves sentencing – 2/11/16”
The subsidized, politicized government players in the space race are still in the game. A few articles of interest: the directly subsidized ULA approach, the hidden subsidies in the European approach, NASA’s rolling forward the cutting edge Saturn V technology, and China expanding GPS coverage from their country to worldwide.
1/28 – Behind the Black – McCain and Air Force question ULA military arrangement – ULA receives a payment even if there aren’t any launches in a year. This is to give ULA sufficient funds to keep a critical national defense resource open.
I vaguely remember reading that during the Cold War, big defense contracts would be given to one of the major contractors merely because they didn’t have enough work to keep all their production lines open.
While those approaches made sense 10 or 30 years ago, the concept doesn’t work quite so well when there are multiple private companies developing their own launch vehicles and manned capsules.
Continue reading “Update on the government players in the wide open frontier of space exploration”
The competition for getting back into space is strong. Very cool.
1/22 – USAF Space and Missile Systems Center – SpaceX Falcon 9 upgrade certified for National Security Space Launches – Upgraded Falcon 9 has been approved for military launches. Gives SpaceX increased opportunities for USAF work.
2/1 – Behind the Black – Another 5 month slip of first Falcon Heavy launch – Continue reading “Update on the wide open frontier of private space exploration”
I just learned that Robert Wilson (@CountCarbon) does a huge amount of graphing. (Yeah, yeah, I’m slow to catch up with what’s happening. On the other hand, keeping up with change is the purpose of this blog.)
Here are two of his illustrations that shows the utter foolishness of two specific energy policies: ethanol and solar power.
Ethanol
Question along with graph to help figure out your answer:
Question: Would corn be better used to feed people than cars?
Continue reading “Visual illustration of energy foolishness”
A few articles of interest to me.
1/18 – Energy Media Group at Bakken.com – 5 oil full job still in demand in 2016 – Even with the drop off in drilling, there are five areas in which you can still find a job if you have the skill sets.
Article says those jobs are drivers with CDL, operators, production foremen, drillers, and field technicians.
Keep in mind the comment I’ve seen repeatedly that each producing well creates essentially one full-time job.
1/26 – Bismarck Tribune – Strip clubs receive second reading – The meaning of that headline is that rules to ban strip clubs from the downtown area were considered for the second time by the Williston city commissioners. City rules require considering a motion twice before it is considered approved. Second look at the rule resulted in unanimous approval.
The hyperinflation in Zimbabwe resulted in a ten trillion Zim note being worth four cents in American dollars. That would be:
When that level of financial devastation happens, it is the result of government policy. Usually socialists pull it off, but German also did so before WWII.
Previous posts:
Venezuela
If you are so interested, you can now watch the sad story as it plays out in Venezuela.
2/3 – Wall Street Journal – Inflation-Wrought Venezuela Orders Bank Notes by the Planeload – Usually governments deal with out-of-control inflation by adding two or three zeros to the currency. Instead of the largest bill in circulation being a 100 unit note, the next run of currency is for a 10,000 unit note. In six months or a year there will be a 500,000 or 1,000,000 note in circulation.
Article says the Venezuelan government isn’t doing that because to do so would acknowledge the astronomical inflation. As the saying goes, denial isn’t just a river in Egypt.
Instead of acknowledging that inflation is running out of control, the government of Venezuela is flooding the economy with the same denomination note. In the last several months of 2014, the article says there were three dozen flights of 747s into the country hauling nothing but currency. Over 30 cargo holds filled with currency.
Bruce Oksol wonders whether Bakken oil production is entering the manufacturing phase after a frantic construction phase.
2/3 – The Million Dollar Way – Idle Chatter on DUCs and Related Data Points – Before a big factory or electrical plant or other major project begins production there is a massive construction effort. The number of jobs to run the facility is a fraction of the number of workers needed to construct the thing. When completed, the number of jobs at the facility drops off.
Mr. Oksol uses the illustration of a natural gas plant being built. During construction there will be around 2,000 temporary jobs. When that gas is turned into electricity, the plant will employ 45. That’s 2,000 temporary and 45 permanent jobs.
He wonders if Bakken is like that, having finished the ‘construction’ and now moving into manufacturing.
Continue reading “Bakken entering ‘manufacturing’ stage? Also, count of oil rigs in field.”
If you guessed the bottom 95%, you would be right.
Follow-up question: What is the spread between the percentage of taxes paid by each group?
What do you think it is? A multiple? Something like double or triple what the 1% pays?
Maybe just a percentage more? 30%, 50%, 60%?
Actually the spread is thin.
Check out the following graph:
Used with permission of Prof. Mark Perry at Carpe Diem.