Great things to learn about Bakken – part 1

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All photos by James Ulvog. Rough estimate: 4 wells x 500K barrels = around 2 million barrels of oil over the next few decades. Oil drawn from solid rock.

Prof. Mark Perry provides his first report on the few days he was able to spend in Williston at the end of May. From Carpe Diem on June 16: Top ten things I learned on my summer trip to the Bakken oil fields, Part I

I was there for a few days last month also. I however, did not get a two-day personal tour of Continental’s drilling sites. What a blessing for him!

If you need a primer on Bakken, I heartily recommend his post.

Here are the first five of his points with my comments:

Continue reading “Great things to learn about Bakken – part 1”

Update on the federal charges against Keith Graves

Jury Box in a court room. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com
Jury Box in a court room. Photo courtesy of DollarPhotoClub.com

Update:  Federal trial on 11 counts is underway in October 2015. Links to all posts covering the federal trial are at this post.

I just took a quick look at the federal PACER system to check on the status of the case against Keith Graves.  As you recall, he was one of the key players in the documentary The Overnighters, which I’ve mentioned a number of times.

Update:  Third superseding indictment adds another count for alleged trafficking.

A few items of note:

On June 3, 2015, a second superseding indictment was filed. It now has 10 counts, including the previous obstruction, distribution of methamphetamines, and possession of controlled substance charges. A seventh count of alleged trafficking has been added to the previous six counts. That makes seven adult women he is accused of trafficking.

The docket shows that he requested and has been approved to represent himself. Standby counsel was appointed in mid-May.

Continue reading “Update on the federal charges against Keith Graves”

Why solar-thermal farms are accurately called wing-toasters – Ivahpah offs an estimated 3,500 birds a year.

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(Wing toaster portion of a wing-toasting facility in operation. Top of the tower is where the protected, migratory, and other birds get cooked. The white-hot section is around 750 degrees. Photo by James Ulvog.)

A detailed study of bird casualties estimates the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System kills about 3,500 birds a year. This is while it is only generating at 40% of expected capacity.

4/22 – Chris Clarke at ReWire – Solar Plant Likely Killed 3,500 Birds in 1st Year – The Ivanpah facility hired a firm to research the number of birds killed at the location. The number of fatalities is in a range between 2,500 and 6,700 with a point estimate of 3,504.

That is a range of 6.8 to 18.4 per day with point estimate of 9.6 each and every day.

That is in contrast to the facility’s biologist’s official count of 695 dead and eight injured birds. That would be an average of 1.9 casualties each day. Continue reading “Why solar-thermal farms are accurately called wing-toasters – Ivahpah offs an estimated 3,500 birds a year.”

Guess on how long Bakken oil will be pumped

A few thoughts on the upside of oil production in North Dakota.

6/14 – Million Dollar Way – A Long Rambling Note on a Bunch of Things Regarding the Bakken – If you are still wondering why I am so powerfully positive on the Bakken, check out Mr. Oksol’s post.

My overly compressed summary:

Continue reading “Guess on how long Bakken oil will be pumped”

Ivanpah running at 40% of expected output while killing about 3,500 birds a year

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(Photo of Ivanpah wing-toasting tower in operation. Photo by James Ulvog.)

The Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System next to I-15 just south of the California-Nevada border is only generating 40% of the expected electricity while at the same time killing a lot more birds than officially reported.

6/12 – Wall Street Journal – High-Tech Solar Projects Fail to Deliver / $2.2 billion California project generates 40% of expected electricity – The Ivanpah solar-thermal plant in the Mojave Desert has been open 15 months. I think it was in testing for several months before that.

It was supposed to deliver over 1 million mWh a year but is only running at 40% of that level according to the article.

Article says offered causes include a lot of equipment breaking (even though it is only around 18 months old). They are still working their way down the learning curve with plenty of on-the-job learning on how to run the plant.

As I’ve mentioned before, they were planning to use natural gas to run the facility for an hour a day to get it going before the sun power really kicks in. They are having to use four times as much natural gas to get the plant started in the morning.

Most entertaining excuse offered for poor results is there’s not enough sun. In the Mojave Desert.

For the last 15 months it’s been more cloudy than expected.

In the Mojave Desert.

For 15 months straight.

Continue reading “Ivanpah running at 40% of expected output while killing about 3,500 birds a year”

Downside of cool modern tech: Massive breach of federal personnel systems

The public now knows of two rounds of massive breaches at the federal agency that handles all personnel records. First round looks like it was essentially the basic personnel file of all current and many former federal employees.

Second round is the long forms used to process security clearances. Looks like it was military and spy agency records. Great. Those files list all relatives, making them vulnerable to coercion. Provides lots of ideas on how to turn or compromise employees.

 

Hackers meandered around the systems for a year.

If you want to build a deep profile of military, diplomatic, and spy agency staff for use over the next several decades, this would be a fantastic starting point. Will take a while to process all the files and synthesize with social media and published news reports, but those countries who wish us harm will have a superb database to track and compromise federal employees.

Continue reading “Downside of cool modern tech: Massive breach of federal personnel systems”

Accrediting agency puts UNC Chapel Hill on one year probation

The Southern Association of Colleges and Schools Commission on Colleges (SACS) placed UNC-Chapel Hill on one year probation for the systemic 18 year fiasco in which about 3,100 students were given credit for paper classes. Ten of the 15 players on the 2005 championship men’s basketball team majored in the department that was providing those fake classes.

I’ve previously discussed this academic and athletic fraud here, here, and here.

The News & Observer has the best article of several I’ve read: Review agency hits UNC-Chapel Hill with probation.

SASC’s report cites seven areas of violation: Continue reading “Accrediting agency puts UNC Chapel Hill on one year probation”

Peak Oil is still wrong. Peak Oilists are the new Flat Earthers – #39

Apparently it is necessary to point out that Peak Oil doctrine is still wrong.

Ronald Bailey explains Hubbert’s Peak Refuted: Peak Oil Theory Still Wrong.  He points out an author who has written multiple books defending Peak Oil.

I just checked Amazon and can find four books from the mentioned author, written in 2001, 2005, 2008, and 2010. All are selling well. Not great, but okay. I’m astounded that so many people still believe that foolishness.

Article gives some info I’ve not seen before: Continue reading “Peak Oil is still wrong. Peak Oilists are the new Flat Earthers – #39”

How much of our electricity comes from solar? Rounded to nearest percent, that would be zero.

I’ve seen comments that rounded to the nearest whole percent, solar power provides 0% of our electricity.

Finally found a way to test that data.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has an Short-Term Energy Outlook report which has a data tab.

Figure 25 shows the sources of electricity generation. In thousands of megawatt hours (that would be gigawatt hours) for 2014 and 2015: Continue reading “How much of our electricity comes from solar? Rounded to nearest percent, that would be zero.”

What “we” have been doing to reduce poverty for the last fifty years doesn’t seem to have done much good.

If you want to know why I’ve been reading a lot on developmental economics in the last few years, check out these amazingly depressing statistics –

Poverty in the United States:

  • 14.7% – portion of Americans living below the official poverty in 1966, right after our “war on poverty” started
  • 14.5% – portion of Americans living below the poverty level in 2013

Poverty around the world:

  • 2.6 billion – number of people living on less than two dollars a day in 1981
  • 2.2 billion – number of people living below that level in 2011

Continue reading “What “we” have been doing to reduce poverty for the last fifty years doesn’t seem to have done much good.”

More on the immorality of ethanol

I have a backlog of energy articles. That allows me to group comments together. Today’s focus: the morality of ethanol assessed based on the damage it causes.

12/17/14 – CBS Minnesota – U of M Study Finds Ethanol Worse for Air Quality Than Gasoline – When measured at the tailpipe, ethanol-laden gasoline measures about the same as regular gasoline. Study from the University of Minnesota says that when you count all of the inputs to grow corn and turn it into ethanol it is far worse for the environment than plain gasoline.

The point?

Continue reading “More on the immorality of ethanol”

More good stuff on Bakken – 6/8

Great summary of news in the last week, “big trigger” oil tax reduction won’t get pulled, and lots of new housing in Williston available in ’15.

If you want a brief, superb summary of news last week on energy, Bakken, North Dakota, and cooking temperature numbers, you gotta’ check out:

6/6 – Million Dollar Way – Weekend update, Part I – June 6, 2015 – Mr. Oksol calls OPEC ‘dead.’ What we refer to as OPEC is now essentially a venue for Saudi Arabia. Continue reading “More good stuff on Bakken – 6/8”

OPEC continues price war against shale

A June 6th Reuters article in the Dickinson Press says North Dakota refuses to flinch as OPEC keeps output highUnnamed company officials in North Dakota are calling OPEC’s decision to maintain a price war

… a questionable bet.

Article points yet again that drillers are dramatically reducing their costs. One executive said:

“High commodity prices hide a lot of inefficiencies in the system,”

Place your bets for or against ingenuity

The WSJ article below says OPEC members believe their strategy of high production (a.k.a. a price war) has been successful. Ooooookay.

As Prof. Mark Perry often says: Don’t bet against American ingenuity.

OPEC has doubled down on their bet.

Go for it.

Maintaining maximum production

Wall Street Journal reports OPEC Keeps Output Unchanged. At their meeting on June 5, OPEC kept their official production cap the same. Article points out this is now referred to by OPEC as “an indicator.”

Perhaps that is merely a recommendation, since producers are pumping as much oil as they possibly can with output understood to be about 1 million barrels a day above the suggested level.

Article says this confirms that OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia, is no longer the swing producer. That role, undesirable as it may be, has now shifted to American shale oil. It is slowly moving into common understanding that drilling in American shale is something that can be turned off and on rapidly.

The irony is the level of American shale production has not dropped off at the same time as OPEC has increased their production by roughly the amount that is produced in Bakken. That means the price war continues.

Continue reading “OPEC continues price war against shale”

NCAA actually accuses UNC-Chapel Hill of bad behavior the second time around

The NCAA has issued their Notice of Allegation regarding the UNC-Chapel Hill academic and athletic fraud. Recall the university was creating paper classes for athletes.

I’ve been following this mess and have discussed it several times. Get a fresh cup of coffee and walk with me as I learn more about this fiasco.

Allegations

Continue reading “NCAA actually accuses UNC-Chapel Hill of bad behavior the second time around”