We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
Here’s a few more articles on Bakken I found interesting – adjusting to growth and drop in crude oil prices. How would you handle calls for police service increasing by a factor of 180 over the last 8 years?
1/9 – Oil Patch Dispatch – Record number of births reported in Oil Patch in 2014 – Along with the huge number of workers moving to North Dakota, there is another year of record baby births. Main hospitals in Minot, Williston, and Dickinson report increases of 5%, 7%, and 13% respectively.
Here is are two pictures of the production of crude oil in the state. The monthly production is multiplied by the state’s calculation of average price with the monthly amounts aggregated.
Dollar value of production, in billions:
Amount of production, in millions of barrels:
Continue reading “2 graphs of annual oil production in North Dakota through 2014”
Oil production averaged 1,227,344 in December, up from a slightly revised 1,188,258 in November, a 3.29% increase. Only passed the 1M bopd mark in April, eight months ago. Up 22% in eight months.
Rig count is dropping rapidly. Prices as well. More on that here.
Update before the graphs: A few tidbits from the Department of mineral Resources director Lynn Helms on the information released Friday, as mentioned in the Bismarck Tribune’s article, Daily oil production passes 1.2 million barrels. He mentioned with oil prices starting to recover, there is a “renewed confidence” that the big trigger of oil tax reductions will not take place.
Article says, as I’ve mentioned previously, that the little trigger was pulled effective the first of February.
Flaring targets
Flaring dropped to 24% in December. He expects the January target to be met.
Targets for flaring, per the article:
Now to the graphs. Here is some statistical data to show the story better than my words can tell:
For a longer term perspective:
Continue reading “Oil production in N.D. hits record in December ‘14, breaking 1.2M bopd”
(Lousy photos by James Ulvog of a man camp. This small facility is in a small city between Williston and Minot. There are a lot of these man camps around Western North Dakota that provide basic sleeping and dining facilities. They are all full. Sorry I don’t have pictures of the many that I’ve seen which are far larger than this one.)
Just one aspect of the brilliance of Jesse Moss’s movie “The Overnighters” is that the nuance and subtlety in it creates a springboard for so many discussions. It also serves as a Rorschach test to reveal the worldview of those watching the movie.
One core question forces its way into view after looking at reactions by viewers. A few ways to describe the issue:
From reactions to the movie, many people believe the answer to those questions is a resounding “no.”
“I will not give in to despair because hopeless should never win and hopeless is a lie.”
Former pastor Jay Reinke, as the Overnighters program shuts down.
I agree. Hopeless is a lie. Despair is a lie.
“The problem is we’re working with sinners and some people are fearful.”
Andrea Reinke, as the family discusses complications of helping someone who is a registered sex offender.
Those are two of my favorite lines from the movie “The Overnighters”, which I watched for the second time last night.
Feet of clay
As Mrs. Reinke pointed out, everyone you will ever deal with is a sinner.
That concept has lots of implications. The movie does a superb job illustrating that concept. Consider:
A movie about the oil boom in North Dakota, the impact in Williston, and how that played out in one church is now available at Amazon. I preordered a copy and it is downloading as I write.
Have been looking forward to seeing it a second time. I knew the story, particularly the ending, before seeing the movie the first time. Now I can watch the movie knowing how the movie presented the story.
Will have more to say about the movie after I watch it another time or two.
(Photo by James Ulvog. Notice the miles and miles of farm land in the background with one or perhaps two wells in sight)
Crude oil production in North Dakota edged up a smidgen (0.31%) in November to an average 1,187,206 bopd from a revised 1,183,515 in October. The data for September and October was revised for one more well being reported. The October production was down a smidgen (-0.24%).
The November ’14 production is barely a record compared to the previous revised high in September ’14 of 1,186,305.
Here is my graph of production by month:
(Will someone please, please, claim that flat top is proof positive that Peak Oil doctrine is true? And that production will now start an irreversible decline to near zero? Please?)
Here is what the price trend looks like.
Continue reading “North Dakota oil production barely hits new record in November 2014”
Some guesses on drilling activity for 2015. Astounding photos of the state. What it costs to get Bakken crude to market.
1/8 – Dickinson Press – N.D. oil regulator says lower oil prices spell gloom, not doom –
Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – some drilling expectations and netback prices”
(photo by Melisa Ulvog)
Still lots of great stuff going on in the Bakken. Flaring is way down.
How would you cope with the population of your city increasing to ten times larger than it was a decade ago?
12/25 – Dickinson Press – Forward on flaring? Regulators say state has made progress; other claim it’s not enough – More info on flaring regs I’ve not seen before. Required flaring limits: Continue reading “More good stuff on Bakken – 1/7”
There are bad things that go along with any boom time or rapid growth. For that matter, there are bad things that go along with any good thing.
Here are a few articles on the downside from the huge increase in oil production in North Dakota: drugs, corruption, and human trafficking.
12/4 – Forum News Service in Bismarck Tribune – Trafficking in North Dakota is on the rise, and often the victims can’t escape – Seven part series on human trafficking in the state coauthored by Amy Dalrymple and Katherine Lymn.
Continue reading “More on the downside of oil production in North Dakota”
The final post at Million Dollar Way on December 27, 2014, The End Of The Blog, is no available on-line.
Bruce Oksol has decided to close his blog. All of the thousands of posts have been removed. At issue is hacking risk. He is seeing some sort of indicators that his site is about to get trashed. Apparently he’s gone through this before and is calling it a day.
Thank you Mr. Oksol for your prolific writing on the Bakken.
Continue reading “Million Dollar Way blog ends. Update: Still operating”
(photo by James Ulvog. If my city boy eyes are working right, there are 4 pumps, two of which are producing, along with a drilling rig and a workover rig on that one pad. Can you find 48 million dollars and 6 million barrels of oil in the picture?)
A few more articles that I found interesting on what’s going on in the rockin’ Bakken:
12/9 – Wall Street Journal – North Dakota Energy Regulator Mandates Steps to Reduce Oil Volatility– NDIC issued rules requiring oil be treated to reduce vapor pressure to 13.7 psi. Excess gas will be burned off by heater-treaters heating the crude to 110 degrees.
For follow-up to my previous post on October oil production data in North Dakota, check out the Dickinson Press’ discussion of comments from Mr. Lynn Helms: Prices could plateau production: Hems says 2015 could be tough for oil.
Here are a few tidbits that help me understand what is going on around us:
Mr. Helms, who is director of the ND Department of Mineral Resources, didn’t think oil prices would drop this far.
Article says that on Friday sweet crude prices were $41.75 a barrel in North Dakota and $57.81 on the New York Mercantile.
Graphic at the Bakken Magazine says on Friday the Brent price was $62.05 and Cushing was $57.99. I’m slowly catching on (but you already knew that), so that graphic tells me that the Cushing price is also called the West Texas Intermediate index.
Rig count
Continue reading “More info from 12/14 Director’s Cut – Indicators for near term”
(All photos by James Ulvog. Above view of 4 pads, with a pair of flares visible in the middle and workover rig on pad in lower left.)
Following post was written on October 18, when my wife and I flew out of Williston:
We took a 6:25 a.m. flight, so it was still dark. The view on departure was fabulous.
I wish I had the camera equipment (and the skill) to show what I saw.
Words will have to suffice, along with photos taken during daylight.
Sky was clear until several minutes from the airport, then clouds slowly built up.
Drilling rigs are quite visible, what with those tall metal superstructures and the working deck all lit up. Sorta’ like an all white Christmas tree.
Continue reading “The visual appearance of a million barrel a day oil field”
There is an old explanation that the best learning you will get about news coverage is when you watch media sources report on a topic for which you have deep knowledge.
It has been quite sobering to occasionally read a story where I can compare my knowledge gained from education and experience to what a reporter explains. In some situations, it is so easily to identify biases, slanted explanations, and sloppy reporting.
On the other hand, I’ve also learned from following the deworming valuation issue in the nonprofit community that sometimes reporters have an incredible depth of accurate knowledge, report accurately, and don’t even give the full range of damaging information they have gathered.
I’ve learned a lot about energy in the last four years. Am still quite new to the field, but finally know enough to carefully evaluate what I read.
That of course leads me to the hit pieces from the New York Times against state regulation of energy development, previously discussed here.
More on the first of two stories from the New York Times…
11/23 – Say Anything Blog – About that New York Times “Downside of the Boom” Story and 11/24 – Bakken.com – The dark side of the boom – isn’t so dark
Continue reading “More reaction to the hit pieces on North Dakota regulation of the oil industry”