Outrun Change – Page 64 – We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Comments on North Dakota oil production. More info on big trigger and little trigger – 1/15/15

(Photo by James Ulvog. A view of what OPEC is trying to shut down. One drilling rig and one pump in foreground. One drilling rig in distant background. About half a dozen working pumpjacks are on the very short road to this site.)

The top oil regulator in North Dakota, Lynn Helms, spoke to media after releasing the monthly production data for November.

Multiple media sources covered the presentation. These comments from the Dickinson Press – Helms: Oil production could decline by third quarter.

He indicated drillers have pulled back to the four key counties of the Bakken region because the returns there are rich enough for drilling to remain profitable. Only 10 of current count of 158 rigs are outside those counties.

Info on rig count Continue reading “Comments on North Dakota oil production. More info on big trigger and little trigger – 1/15/15”

North Dakota oil production barely hits new record in November 2014

(Photo by James Ulvog. Notice the miles and miles of farm land in the background with one or perhaps two wells in sight)

Crude oil production in North Dakota edged up a smidgen (0.31%) in November to an average 1,187,206 bopd from a revised 1,183,515 in October. The data for September and October was revised for one more well being reported. The October production was down a smidgen (-0.24%).

The November ’14 production is barely a record compared to the previous revised high in September ’14 of 1,186,305.

Here is my graph of production by month:

(Will someone please, please, claim that flat top is proof positive that Peak Oil doctrine is true? And that production will now start an irreversible decline to near zero? Please?)

Here is what the price trend looks like.

Continue reading “North Dakota oil production barely hits new record in November 2014”

About those dropping oil prices – #9 – on the price war

I have a backlog of articles about what’s going on with crude oil prices. Will start catching up.

Articles in this post look at the issue of whether this is a price war kicked off by Saudi Arabia.

1/8 – Reuters at Bakken.Com – No chance of OPEC output cut, even after oil dips below $50 – Gulf delegates – Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – #9 – on the price war”

Best 2014 energy graphs from Carpe Diem

(Photo by James Ulvog)

Carpe Diem has been running a recap of the best-of graphs from 2014. Last week the focus was energy: My Top Ten Energy Charts of the Year For 2014.

Here are some of my favorites. All graphs used with permission of Carpe Diem.

If you have just tuned into the energy revolution, look at these graphs to see how much things have changed in the last decade.

Check out the total U.S. production of crude oil and natural gas. That is a great proxy for the shale revolution.

Look at the crude oil only production graph. Continue reading “Best 2014 energy graphs from Carpe Diem”

Historical count of drilling rigs in North Dakota

With rig count dropping in the state, thought I’d look at the history of how many rigs are in operation. Here are two graphs to give some historical background. Data is from the website of the North Dakota Industrial Commission, Department of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas Division. The general statistics page is here. Go to the monthly statistics line for the annual reports.

Here is the average count of rigs by month:

The impact of the Great Recession hit the rig count in late 2008 and early 2009. I think the drop in rigs in 2012 is due to rapid increases in productivity. Multipad drilling using walking rigs meant one rig could drill lots more wells.

Drop in count is quite visible in the last four months.

Here is the average count for each year:

Drop in ’09 is quite visible.

My graphing ability is improving rapidly, having been watching Carpe Diem for a few years and learning a lot from Prof. Mark Perry by watching closely. Only took a few minutes to develop the above graphs.

Knowledge is the source of value and wealth

Gotta’ question for you – How much does the economy weigh? (Cross posted from Attestation Update.)

Can’t answer?

Okay. How ‘bout this – Does much does the economy weight today versus 1950?

Before you answer, consider that I just counted 220 books on the bookshelves in my office. I currently have 195 books on my Kindle.

Now, how much does the economy weight today compared to 60 years ago?

Continue reading “Knowledge is the source of value and wealth”

We lost another hero: Dick Winters passes away

A WWII veteran was once asked by his grandson:

‘Grandpa, were you a hero in the war?’ Grandpa said, ‘No, but I served in a company of heroes.’ “

That, and the following quotes are from an NPR article: Dick Winters, “Bank Of Brothers’ Inspiration, Dies.

Dick Winters, key character in the book and movie Band of Brothers, left us on January 2, 2015.

When he finished his memoir, he told his coauthor: Continue reading “We lost another hero: Dick Winters passes away”

At $15.62 an hour you are in the top 1% of earners

Admit It: You’re Rich is a discussion from Megan McArdle.

If you are making more than about $16 an hour, you are in the top 1% of income earners in the world. If your time horizon is the last few thousand years of history, sitting in the lower end of middle class or perhaps working poor, you would be in the very tip-top of the 1% for all of history.

She is on the story of why people living on either coast are complaining they can barely get by on $350,000 a year.

I’m on it. So is David Sirota. And if your personal income is higher than $32,500, so are you. The global elite to which you and I belong enjoys fantastic wealth compared to the rest of the world: We have more food, clothes, comfortable housing, electronic gadgets, health care, travel and leisure than almost every other living person, not to mention virtually every human being who has ever lived. We are also mostly privileged to live in societies that offer quite a lot in the way of public amenities, from well-policed streets and clean water, to museums and libraries, to public officials who do their jobs without requiring a hefty bribe. And I haven’t even mentioned the social safety nets our governments provide.

So how is it that everyone who is making more than $33K a year doesn’t feel like they are incredibly, wonderfully, amazingly blessed to live a live of such luxury and comfort and ease?

Continue reading “At $15.62 an hour you are in the top 1% of earners”

Human trafficking – the dark side of life

Forum News Service has a seven part series on human trafficking in North Dakota dealing with multiple aspects of the prostitution issue. Shift in our cultural perceptions is focusing more on the issue of women getting sucked in and trapped by this destructive world.

The series is set in the Bakken oil field of North Dakota. The general issues apply all across the U.S. This is news because many sides of the downside of economic growth are visible in North Dakota. If the series were set in Los Angeles or New York area, this would be ancient, boring news.

In North Dakota we can easy watch as the reporters describe the devastation of prostitution. The scale of the issue is small enough and new enough in a relatively small state that the story can actually be covered in just seven parts.

One thing I’ve learned in the last few years of blogging is that certain names pop up regularly as authors of routinely superb writing. There is a short list of authors for whom I try to read everything they write. Ms. Dalrymple, who is also a very prolific writer, is one of those.

If you are deeply interested in either the Bakken or the trafficking issue, this is a series you will definitely want to read.

12/4 – Forum News Service in Bismarck Tribune – Trafficking in North Dakota is on the rise, and often the victims can’t escape – Seven part series on human trafficking in the state coauthored by Amy Dalrymple and Katherine Lymn.

First article in the series traces one man from looking on-line for an underage girl through his conviction and sentencing to a five-year prison sentence.

Continue reading “Human trafficking – the dark side of life”

More good stuff on the Bakken – some drilling expectations and netback prices

Some guesses on drilling activity for 2015. Astounding photos of the state. What it costs to get Bakken crude to market.

1/8 – Dickinson Press – N.D. oil regulator says lower oil prices spell gloom, not doom –

Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – some drilling expectations and netback prices”

Graph of the certainty level of estimates for oil and gas reserves

Million Dollar Way pointed me to a great visual illustration of this idea, explained by the US EIA:

For many purposes, oil and natural gas resources are usefully classified into four categories:

Remaining oil and gas in-place (original oil and gas in-place minus cumulative production at a specific date)

Technically recoverable resources

Economically recoverable resources

Proved reserves

Check out this illustration, which is obviously not to scale:

Illustration tells the story better than my words could.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration – Oil and natural gas resource categories reflect varying degrees of certainty.

More good stuff on Bakken – 1/7

(photo by Melisa Ulvog)

Still lots of great stuff going on in the Bakken. Flaring is way down.

How would you cope with the population of your city increasing to ten times larger than it was a decade ago?

12/25 – Dickinson Press – Forward on flaring? Regulators say state has made progress; other claim it’s not enough – More info on flaring regs I’ve not seen before. Required flaring limits: Continue reading “More good stuff on Bakken – 1/7”

More good stuff on the open frontiers – 1/6

More articles on the open frontiers of technology and private space flight. But first, some downsides of tech misuse and letting the world pass you by.

Downside of tech revolution and change

Not everything is getting better. There is abuse of technology along with quantitative and qualitative decay:

1/2 – Schneier on Security – Doxing as an Attack – New terms you didn’t want to know, but really ought to: doxing –

Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontiers – 1/6”

More on the downside of oil production in North Dakota

There are bad things that go along with any boom time or rapid growth. For that matter, there are bad things that go along with any good thing.

Here are a few articles on the downside from the huge increase in oil production in North Dakota: drugs, corruption, and human trafficking.

Continue reading “More on the downside of oil production in North Dakota”

Million Dollar Way blog ends. Update: Still operating

The final post at Million Dollar Way on December 27, 2014, The End Of The Blog, is no available on-line.

Bruce Oksol has decided to close his blog. All of the thousands of posts have been removed. At issue is hacking risk. He is seeing some sort of indicators that his site is about to get trashed. Apparently he’s gone through this before and is calling it a day.

Thank you Mr. Oksol for your prolific writing on the Bakken.

Continue reading “Million Dollar Way blog ends. Update: Still operating”