Energy – Page 26 – Outrun Change

Comments on North Dakota oil production. More info on big trigger and little trigger – 1/15/15

(Photo by James Ulvog. A view of what OPEC is trying to shut down. One drilling rig and one pump in foreground. One drilling rig in distant background. About half a dozen working pumpjacks are on the very short road to this site.)

The top oil regulator in North Dakota, Lynn Helms, spoke to media after releasing the monthly production data for November.

Multiple media sources covered the presentation. These comments from the Dickinson Press – Helms: Oil production could decline by third quarter.

He indicated drillers have pulled back to the four key counties of the Bakken region because the returns there are rich enough for drilling to remain profitable. Only 10 of current count of 158 rigs are outside those counties.

Info on rig count Continue reading “Comments on North Dakota oil production. More info on big trigger and little trigger – 1/15/15”

North Dakota oil production barely hits new record in November 2014

(Photo by James Ulvog. Notice the miles and miles of farm land in the background with one or perhaps two wells in sight)

Crude oil production in North Dakota edged up a smidgen (0.31%) in November to an average 1,187,206 bopd from a revised 1,183,515 in October. The data for September and October was revised for one more well being reported. The October production was down a smidgen (-0.24%).

The November ’14 production is barely a record compared to the previous revised high in September ’14 of 1,186,305.

Here is my graph of production by month:

(Will someone please, please, claim that flat top is proof positive that Peak Oil doctrine is true? And that production will now start an irreversible decline to near zero? Please?)

Here is what the price trend looks like.

Continue reading “North Dakota oil production barely hits new record in November 2014”

About those dropping oil prices – #9 – on the price war

I have a backlog of articles about what’s going on with crude oil prices. Will start catching up.

Articles in this post look at the issue of whether this is a price war kicked off by Saudi Arabia.

1/8 – Reuters at Bakken.Com – No chance of OPEC output cut, even after oil dips below $50 – Gulf delegates – Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – #9 – on the price war”

Best 2014 energy graphs from Carpe Diem

(Photo by James Ulvog)

Carpe Diem has been running a recap of the best-of graphs from 2014. Last week the focus was energy: My Top Ten Energy Charts of the Year For 2014.

Here are some of my favorites. All graphs used with permission of Carpe Diem.

If you have just tuned into the energy revolution, look at these graphs to see how much things have changed in the last decade.

Check out the total U.S. production of crude oil and natural gas. That is a great proxy for the shale revolution.

Look at the crude oil only production graph. Continue reading “Best 2014 energy graphs from Carpe Diem”

Historical count of drilling rigs in North Dakota

With rig count dropping in the state, thought I’d look at the history of how many rigs are in operation. Here are two graphs to give some historical background. Data is from the website of the North Dakota Industrial Commission, Department of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas Division. The general statistics page is here. Go to the monthly statistics line for the annual reports.

Here is the average count of rigs by month:

The impact of the Great Recession hit the rig count in late 2008 and early 2009. I think the drop in rigs in 2012 is due to rapid increases in productivity. Multipad drilling using walking rigs meant one rig could drill lots more wells.

Drop in count is quite visible in the last four months.

Here is the average count for each year:

Drop in ’09 is quite visible.

My graphing ability is improving rapidly, having been watching Carpe Diem for a few years and learning a lot from Prof. Mark Perry by watching closely. Only took a few minutes to develop the above graphs.

More good stuff on the Bakken – some drilling expectations and netback prices

Some guesses on drilling activity for 2015. Astounding photos of the state. What it costs to get Bakken crude to market.

1/8 – Dickinson Press – N.D. oil regulator says lower oil prices spell gloom, not doom –

Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – some drilling expectations and netback prices”

Graph of the certainty level of estimates for oil and gas reserves

Million Dollar Way pointed me to a great visual illustration of this idea, explained by the US EIA:

For many purposes, oil and natural gas resources are usefully classified into four categories:

Remaining oil and gas in-place (original oil and gas in-place minus cumulative production at a specific date)

Technically recoverable resources

Economically recoverable resources

Proved reserves

Check out this illustration, which is obviously not to scale:

Illustration tells the story better than my words could.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration – Oil and natural gas resource categories reflect varying degrees of certainty.

More good stuff on Bakken – 1/7

(photo by Melisa Ulvog)

Still lots of great stuff going on in the Bakken. Flaring is way down.

How would you cope with the population of your city increasing to ten times larger than it was a decade ago?

12/25 – Dickinson Press – Forward on flaring? Regulators say state has made progress; other claim it’s not enough – More info on flaring regs I’ve not seen before. Required flaring limits: Continue reading “More good stuff on Bakken – 1/7”

More on the downside of oil production in North Dakota

There are bad things that go along with any boom time or rapid growth. For that matter, there are bad things that go along with any good thing.

Here are a few articles on the downside from the huge increase in oil production in North Dakota: drugs, corruption, and human trafficking.

12/4 – Forum News Service in Bismarck Tribune – Trafficking in North Dakota is on the rise, and often the victims can’t escape – Seven part series on human trafficking in the state coauthored by Amy Dalrymple and Katherine Lymn.

Continue reading “More on the downside of oil production in North Dakota”

Million Dollar Way blog ends. Update: Still operating

The final post at Million Dollar Way on December 27, 2014, The End Of The Blog, is no available on-line.

Bruce Oksol has decided to close his blog. All of the thousands of posts have been removed. At issue is hacking risk. He is seeing some sort of indicators that his site is about to get trashed. Apparently he’s gone through this before and is calling it a day.

Thank you Mr. Oksol for your prolific writing on the Bakken.

Continue reading “Million Dollar Way blog ends. Update: Still operating”

About those dropping oil prices #7 – two must-read articles

Here are two major, must-read articles on oil production and pricing for your consideration. One I’ve been holding a while and the other ran just this week.

First a few quick tidbits to keep in mind – 12/23 – Dickinson Press – Oil prices will affect fringe areas most: Break-even mark lower in heart of Bakken – Drilling at the margins of Bakken will be sharply reduced. In the four core counties, not so much.

For active wells, a price of $15 a barrel is sufficient to keep operating. Ponder that – $15 a barrel.

Keep that in the back of your mind as you read of Saudi officials who want to see current production in Bakken and Eagle Ford drop far enough to balance supply and demand of world oil.

The first big article:

12-22 – Wall Street Journal – Behind OPEC Decision, A Saudi Fear of U.S. Shale –

Saudi Arabia’s surprise move to maintain production and let oil prices collapse

… is a story of a budding rivalry, driven by what Saudi Arabia views as a threat posed by American energy firm …

according to the deeply reported article.

Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices #7 – two must-read articles”

Wind farm owner settles criminal charges for killing 38 golden eagles and 298 other protected birds over 6 years

There was another settlement last week for a wind farm owner killing a bunch of birds.

The slaughter of eagles and other protected birds is the reason wind turbines have the well-earned title of slice-and-dicer. One pundit calls them Cuisinarts.

The Associated Press reports: Wind farm operator PacifiCorp Energy pleads guilty in bird deaths at wind farms in Wyoming.

The Seven Mile Hill and Glenrock/Rolling Hills projects in Wyoming are owned and run by PacifiCorp Energy. The owner has entered a guilty plea to two counts of breaking the Migratory Bird Treaty Act.

Officials have counted the dead birds at those two facilities since 2009. How high is the count of shredded birds? The article says:

38 golden eagles
336 other protected birds

I think that count is incorrect. According to the criminal information complaint filed in the case, which is available in the federal PACER system, the total bird count at the two facilities is 336, which includes the 38 golden eagles. The two counts consist of one count for each facility.

Continue reading “Wind farm owner settles criminal charges for killing 38 golden eagles and 298 other protected birds over 6 years”

New York State bans fracking and economic growth

The official position of New York State is to ban fracking for natural gas.

A December 19 editorial in the Wall Street Journal blasts the decision: Cuomo Bans Fracking – Editorial points out since regulators in New York State have decided that fracking possibly, perhaps, maybe, might have some danger that haven’t yet been established, they must ban fracking in the gas rich Marcellus Shale area of the state.

Ridicule alert

If you don’t like heaping helpings of ridicule poured on the heads of foolish leaders, you might want to skip the rest of this discussion. Might be better for you not to click the link to the WSJ editorial.

Okay, you’ve been warned. Continue reading “New York State bans fracking and economic growth”

More good stuff on the Bakken – 12/19

(photo by James Ulvog. If my city boy eyes are working right, there are 4 pumps, two of which are producing, along with a drilling rig and a workover rig on that one pad. Can you find 48 million dollars and 6 million barrels of oil in the picture?)

A few more articles that I found interesting on what’s going on in the rockin’ Bakken:

12/9 – Wall Street Journal – North Dakota Energy Regulator Mandates Steps to Reduce Oil Volatility– NDIC issued rules requiring oil be treated to reduce vapor pressure to 13.7 psi. Excess gas will be burned off by heater-treaters heating the crude to 110 degrees.

Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – 12/19”

Update on wind and solar plants in California and North Dakota – solar #34

A few updates on a few slice/dice/fry projects, as one observer calls them:

California

11/4 – ReWire – “Dead” Solar Plant May Rise From Grave – The joint owners of the Palen Solar Electric Generating System pulled their plan recently. One of the owners (Abengoa Solar) will buy out the other (Brightstar), revise the design, and resubmit their plan. That is the announced goal. The wing-toasting facility will be redesigned with one tower and the ability to store electricity using molten salt.

This would be Palen plan #3. The first was parabolic solar. The second was 3 warming towers. This will be only one solar collecting tower plus storage capacity.

10/30 – ReWire – Wind Project Pulled from San Bernardino Mountains – Continue reading “Update on wind and solar plants in California and North Dakota – solar #34”