We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
Some guesses on drilling activity for 2015. Astounding photos of the state. What it costs to get Bakken crude to market.
1/8 – Dickinson Press – N.D. oil regulator says lower oil prices spell gloom, not doom –
Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – some drilling expectations and netback prices”
For follow-up to my previous post on October oil production data in North Dakota, check out the Dickinson Press’ discussion of comments from Mr. Lynn Helms: Prices could plateau production: Hems says 2015 could be tough for oil.
Here are a few tidbits that help me understand what is going on around us:
Mr. Helms, who is director of the ND Department of Mineral Resources, didn’t think oil prices would drop this far.
Article says that on Friday sweet crude prices were $41.75 a barrel in North Dakota and $57.81 on the New York Mercantile.
Graphic at the Bakken Magazine says on Friday the Brent price was $62.05 and Cushing was $57.99. I’m slowly catching on (but you already knew that), so that graphic tells me that the Cushing price is also called the West Texas Intermediate index.
Rig count
Continue reading “More info from 12/14 Director’s Cut – Indicators for near term”
Million Dollar Way thinks we will see the monthly production drop in November. Might still see one more record in October before the drop for winter.
Mr. Oksol’s comments from his post, New All-Time North Dakota Oil Production Record… Continue reading “Near term prediction for oil production in North Dakota”
(Photo by James Ulvog – 2 pump jacks in operation, 2 more being assembled, 1 workover rig, 1 drilling rig – That site will hold an investment of around $54M or $60M when finished and will produce somewhere between 3 million and 6 million barrels of oil during its useful life.)
Oil production in North Dakota set another record in August 2014. Total production in the state averaged 1,132,331 barrels per day. Production in Bakken only was 1,068,609 bopd. That is a 1.61% increase statewide and 1.70% in Bakken-only.
Very cool.
On 9/23, I described the prediction from Bentek: Another short term production prediction for Bakken. Time to see how that turned out.
Continue reading “Update on a short term production prediction”
(Photo by James Ulvog, showing flaring of natural gas that can’t be tied into a pipeline.)
Here’s a few long notes on interesting news that I won’t cover in a separate post:
Production may drop for a while
10/2 – Million Dollar Way – North Dakota Oil Production Likely To Start Falling – Rigzone, Reuters – The MDW article quotes Rigzone explain why production will be likely be falling at times over the next year.
Here’s a few quick notes on interesting news that I won’t cover in a separate post: cost of Bakken wells going up, short-term production drop and long-term increase.
Cost of wells
9/20 – Million Dollar Way – Idle Chatter on Costs of Completed Wells in the Bakken –
I know my ability to predict oil production in North Dakota is lousy.
Let’s see how Bentek is doing:
9/23 – BakkenShale.com – Bentek Energy: ND Bakken Hit 1.2 Million b/d – Aug. 2014 – Article says Bentek is predicting production in North Dakota from just Bakken field shale will hit 1.2M bopd in August.
This is the second month in a row they predicted 1.2M bopd.
Continue reading “Another short term production prediction for Bakken”
Eleven more years with more than 1 million barrels every day. Production at 100,000 bopd in 2100.
That’s the prediction from Lynn Helms, director of North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, speaking at the Bakken Rocks CookFest on July 17, 2014.
Two things could cause a breakout on the upside, according to Mr. Helms.
Continue reading “Eighty year prediction of North Dakota oil production”
Here’s a few quick notes on interesting news that I won’t cover in a separate post: production levels, a forecast for slowing acceleration of output, employement, infrastructure, and few other things.
Production level
7/16 – North Dakota oil production passes 1,039,000 BOPD in 5/14
5/30 – Million Dollar Way – That She Is! A Million-Bbl Bakken Well In This Boom – One well has finally crossed the point of producing 1,000,000 barrels of oil. It has been on-line for about 3.5 years. Let’s assume $90/barrel. That would be $90,000,000 gross, or about $26M per year. Still producing 24,000 bbl a month, which at $86 is about $2,000,000 each month. Not even on a pump yet. Initial production was an okay 803 barrels a day. Not great. Not bad. By 12/14, it will have produced $100M of oil.
5/30 – Bakken Shale – Is the Bakken America’s Last Boom? – Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – 7/24”
Production will likely increase 5% or 6% a month for June, July, and August of 2014.
That is the expectation of Lynn Helms, director of N.D. Department of Mineral Resources, in a conference call reported by Bloomberg: North Dakota Expects “Big Surge” in Summer Crude Output.
I’ll turn that into a specific number by combining that with 2% or 2.5% growth through November. Will use that cutoff instead of December, since weather could get bad in either January or December.
Starting point is 1,039,635 bopd in May.
Here’s a range of guesses for November 2014: Continue reading “Short-term and long-term predictions for North Dakota oil production”
Think I’ll start accumulating predictions for the highest point of oil production in North Dakota now that the state has passed 1,000,000 barrels per day.
In a feature article, N.D. oil production hits 1 million barrels per day, Amy Dalrymple, provides two estimates: Continue reading “Predictions for plateau in North Dakota oil production”
April marked the month that the average production passed the 1 million point. Preliminary number is 1,001,149.
Everyone has been waiting for this day. Yippee!
Here’s a graph of production for state-wide and Bakken-only:
Predictions
Check out these astounding pieces of info from the 2014 Williston Basin Petroleum Conference, as reported by Amy Dalrymple (who else would it be from?): Hamm sees 2 million barrels per day potential for North Dakota: Continue reading “Mind bending tidbits from ’14 Bakken conference”
Forbes has a superb article on the shale revolution in North Dakota and one of the drivers of said revolution: Harold Hamm: The Billionaire Oilman Fueling America’s Recovery.
For some great background why the Bakken field is producing nine times more oil than five years ago, check out the article.
There is great discussion of Harold Hamm and his role in creating the oil boom.
What has the shale boom done for the US?
Check out the benefits to the US of the shale oil boom: Continue reading “Background on Bakken and Harold Hamm”
Forecast from Wood Mackenzie, as announced in Oil & Gas Financial Journal: Bakken Drilling and Completion Capex to Top $15B in 2014.
Their predictions:
Highest 30 day Initial Production rates are above 1,000 bopd in the Nesson Anticline.
EURs are highest in the Fort Berthold subplay at 700,000 barrels.
Peak what?