Outrun Change

We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.

Archive for the tag “Bakken forecast”

Update on a short term production prediction


(Photo by James Ulvog – 2 pump jacks in operation, 2 more being assembled, 1 workover rig, 1 drilling rig – That site will hold an investment of around $54M or $60M when finished and will produce somewhere between 3 million and 6 million barrels of oil during its useful life.)

Oil production in North Dakota set another record in August 2014. Total production in the state averaged 1,132,331 barrels per day. Production in Bakken only was 1,068,609 bopd. That is a 1.61% increase statewide and 1.70% in Bakken-only.

Very cool.

On 9/23, I described the prediction from Bentek: Another short term production prediction for Bakken. Time to see how that turned out.

Read more…

More good stuff on the Bakken – 10/6



(Photo by James Ulvog, showing flaring of natural gas that can’t be tied into a pipeline.)

Here’s a few long notes on interesting news that I won’t cover in a separate post:

Production may drop for a while

10/2 – Million Dollar Way – North Dakota Oil Production Likely To Start Falling – Rigzone, Reuters – The MDW article quotes Rigzone explain why production will be likely be falling at times over the next year.

Read more…

More good stuff on the Bakken – 9/26

Here’s a few quick notes on interesting news that I won’t cover in a separate post: cost of Bakken wells going up, short-term production drop and long-term increase.

Cost of wells

9/20 – Million Dollar Way – Idle Chatter on Costs of Completed Wells in the Bakken

Read more…

Another short term production prediction for Bakken

I know my ability to predict oil production in North Dakota is lousy.

Let’s see how Bentek is doing:

9/23 – BakkenShale.com – Bentek Energy: ND Bakken Hit 1.2 Million b/d – Aug. 2014 – Article says Bentek is predicting production in North Dakota from just Bakken field shale will hit 1.2M bopd in August.

This is the second month in a row they predicted 1.2M bopd.

Read more…

Eighty year prediction of North Dakota oil production

Eleven more years with more than 1 million barrels every day. Production at 100,000 bopd in 2100.

That’s the prediction from Lynn Helms, director of North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, speaking at the Bakken Rocks CookFest on July 17, 2014.

Two things could cause a breakout on the upside, according to Mr. Helms.

Read more…

More good stuff on the Bakken – 7/24

Here’s a few quick notes on interesting news that I won’t cover in a separate post: production levels, a forecast for slowing acceleration of output, employement, infrastructure, and  few other things.

Production level

7/16 – North Dakota oil production passes 1,039,000 BOPD in 5/14

5/30 – Million Dollar Way – That She Is! A Million-Bbl Bakken Well In This Boom – One well has finally crossed the point of producing 1,000,000 barrels of oil. It has been on-line for about 3.5 years. Let’s assume $90/barrel. That would be $90,000,000 gross, or about $26M per year. Still producing 24,000 bbl a month, which at $86 is about $2,000,000 each month. Not even on a pump yet. Initial production was an okay 803 barrels a day. Not great. Not bad. By 12/14, it will have produced $100M of oil.

5/30 – Bakken Shale – Is the Bakken America’s Last Boom?Read more…

Short-term and long-term predictions for North Dakota oil production

Production will likely increase 5% or 6% a month for June, July, and August of 2014.

That is the expectation of Lynn Helms, director of N.D. Department of Mineral Resources, in a conference call reported by Bloomberg: North Dakota Expects “Big Surge” in Summer Crude Output.

I’ll turn that into a specific number by combining that with 2% or 2.5% growth through November. Will use that cutoff instead of December, since weather could get bad in either January or December.

Starting point is 1,039,635 bopd in May.

Here’s a range of guesses for November 2014: Read more…

Predictions for plateau in North Dakota oil production

Think I’ll start accumulating predictions for the highest point of oil production in North Dakota now that the state has passed 1,000,000 barrels per day.

In a feature article, N.D. oil production hits 1 million barrels per day, Amy Dalrymple, provides two estimates: Read more…

North Dakota oil production passes the 1 million barrels per day mark in April ’14.


April marked the month that the average production passed the 1 million point. Preliminary number is 1,001,149.

Everyone has been waiting for this day. Yippee!

Here’s a graph of production for state-wide and Bakken-only:

ND production 4-14



Read more…

Mind bending tidbits from ’14 Bakken conference

Check out these astounding pieces of info from the 2014 Williston Basin Petroleum Conference, as reported by Amy Dalrymple (who else would it be from?): Hamm sees 2 million barrels per day potential for North Dakota: Read more…

Background on Bakken and Harold Hamm

Forbes has a superb article on the shale revolution in North Dakota and one of the drivers of said revolution: Harold Hamm: The Billionaire Oilman Fueling America’s Recovery.

For some great background why the Bakken field is producing nine times more oil than five years ago, check out the article.

There is great discussion of Harold Hamm and his role in creating the oil boom.

What has the shale boom done for the US?

Check out the benefits to the US of the shale oil boom: Read more…

Forecast for Bakken production in 2014 and 2020

Forecast from Wood Mackenzie, as announced in Oil & Gas Financial Journal: Bakken Drilling and Completion Capex to Top $15B in 2014.

Their predictions:

  • 1.1 million BOPD average for 2014
  • 1.7M BOPD average for 2020

Highest 30 day Initial Production rates are above 1,000 bopd in the Nesson Anticline.

EURs are highest in the Fort Berthold subplay at 700,000 barrels.

Peak what?

More good stuff on the Bakken – decline rate and sustained drilling – 4-8-14

A few years ago, I would have had a 500 word post on each of the following articles from Million Dollar Way. Now I’m to the point where I get the knowledge quicker and only want to summarize in a few sentences. The news in these two posts is huge: First, the horrid Bakken decline rate might not be as big a deal as previously thought. Second, the drilling rate of 2,500 new wells a year is probably sustainable.


The declining relevance of the decline rate

3/31 – Million Dollar Way – Decline Rate And The BakkenRead more…

More good stuff on the open frontiers, energy edition – 1-16-14

Amazing things going on around us. Here is my latest list of a few articles about energy that help me make sense of the radical change taking place. Tomorrow, tidbits of the other newly open frontiers.


1-6 – CNS News – Saudi Billionaire Prince:  Fracking Competitively Threatens ‘Any Oil Producing Country in the World’ – Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal is pushing the Saudi government to diversify the country’s economy. Currently 92% of government revenue is derived from oil, he says. The rapid expansion in output caused by combining horizontal drilling with staged hydraulic fracturing presents a serious threat to any country that is reliant on oil. Big news. Bigger issue.

A delightful “problem” to have – 1-7 – Bismarck Tribune from the New York Times – Oil glut stirs up political brew – The surging production of crude is opening a discussion of whether to allow more exports of crude. Seems we have so much unrefined light, sweet crude we don’t know what to do with it all.  As a result, the politicians are getting involved. I wish we as a country and planet had another half-dozen “problems” like this.

(By the way, what Peak Oil?)

More downside to the Bakken boom – 1-10 – The Dickinson Press – Criminal defendants in fed court up 31 percent in western N.D. in 2013Read more…

Another prediction for oil production in North Dakota: back off the accelerator a bit

I watch the Million Dollar Way blog closely. I’ve learned much from Mr. Bruce Oksol. Thank you sir.

In his post, Bakken Fanatics; Fasten Your Seatbelts – We’ve Not Seen Anything Yet, he mentions a Goldman Sachs study which predicts 10 years of continued growth in Bakken production. Their worst case scenario is 1.3M bopd in 2017.

More interesting is Mr. Oksol’s speculation that the state may slow things down a bit as an intentional choice.  He says: Read more…

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