Bakken – Page 12 – Outrun Change

North Dakota oil production barely hits new record in November 2014

(Photo by James Ulvog. Notice the miles and miles of farm land in the background with one or perhaps two wells in sight)

Crude oil production in North Dakota edged up a smidgen (0.31%) in November to an average 1,187,206 bopd from a revised 1,183,515 in October. The data for September and October was revised for one more well being reported. The October production was down a smidgen (-0.24%).

The November ’14 production is barely a record compared to the previous revised high in September ’14 of 1,186,305.

Here is my graph of production by month:

(Will someone please, please, claim that flat top is proof positive that Peak Oil doctrine is true? And that production will now start an irreversible decline to near zero? Please?)

Here is what the price trend looks like.

Continue reading “North Dakota oil production barely hits new record in November 2014”

Best 2014 energy graphs from Carpe Diem

(Photo by James Ulvog)

Carpe Diem has been running a recap of the best-of graphs from 2014. Last week the focus was energy: My Top Ten Energy Charts of the Year For 2014.

Here are some of my favorites. All graphs used with permission of Carpe Diem.

If you have just tuned into the energy revolution, look at these graphs to see how much things have changed in the last decade.

Check out the total U.S. production of crude oil and natural gas. That is a great proxy for the shale revolution.

Look at the crude oil only production graph. Continue reading “Best 2014 energy graphs from Carpe Diem”

Historical count of drilling rigs in North Dakota

With rig count dropping in the state, thought I’d look at the history of how many rigs are in operation. Here are two graphs to give some historical background. Data is from the website of the North Dakota Industrial Commission, Department of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas Division. The general statistics page is here. Go to the monthly statistics line for the annual reports.

Here is the average count of rigs by month:

The impact of the Great Recession hit the rig count in late 2008 and early 2009. I think the drop in rigs in 2012 is due to rapid increases in productivity. Multipad drilling using walking rigs meant one rig could drill lots more wells.

Drop in count is quite visible in the last four months.

Here is the average count for each year:

Drop in ’09 is quite visible.

My graphing ability is improving rapidly, having been watching Carpe Diem for a few years and learning a lot from Prof. Mark Perry by watching closely. Only took a few minutes to develop the above graphs.

More good stuff on the Bakken – some drilling expectations and netback prices

Some guesses on drilling activity for 2015. Astounding photos of the state. What it costs to get Bakken crude to market.

1/8 – Dickinson Press – N.D. oil regulator says lower oil prices spell gloom, not doom –

Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – some drilling expectations and netback prices”

More good stuff on Bakken – 1/7

(photo by Melisa Ulvog)

Still lots of great stuff going on in the Bakken. Flaring is way down.

How would you cope with the population of your city increasing to ten times larger than it was a decade ago?

12/25 – Dickinson Press – Forward on flaring? Regulators say state has made progress; other claim it’s not enough – More info on flaring regs I’ve not seen before. Required flaring limits: Continue reading “More good stuff on Bakken – 1/7”

More on the downside of oil production in North Dakota

There are bad things that go along with any boom time or rapid growth. For that matter, there are bad things that go along with any good thing.

Here are a few articles on the downside from the huge increase in oil production in North Dakota: drugs, corruption, and human trafficking.

12/4 – Forum News Service in Bismarck Tribune – Trafficking in North Dakota is on the rise, and often the victims can’t escape – Seven part series on human trafficking in the state coauthored by Amy Dalrymple and Katherine Lymn.

Continue reading “More on the downside of oil production in North Dakota”

Million Dollar Way blog ends. Update: Still operating

The final post at Million Dollar Way on December 27, 2014, The End Of The Blog, is no available on-line.

Bruce Oksol has decided to close his blog. All of the thousands of posts have been removed. At issue is hacking risk. He is seeing some sort of indicators that his site is about to get trashed. Apparently he’s gone through this before and is calling it a day.

Thank you Mr. Oksol for your prolific writing on the Bakken.

Continue reading “Million Dollar Way blog ends. Update: Still operating”

About those dropping oil prices #7 – two must-read articles

Here are two major, must-read articles on oil production and pricing for your consideration. One I’ve been holding a while and the other ran just this week.

First a few quick tidbits to keep in mind – 12/23 – Dickinson Press – Oil prices will affect fringe areas most: Break-even mark lower in heart of Bakken – Drilling at the margins of Bakken will be sharply reduced. In the four core counties, not so much.

For active wells, a price of $15 a barrel is sufficient to keep operating. Ponder that – $15 a barrel.

Keep that in the back of your mind as you read of Saudi officials who want to see current production in Bakken and Eagle Ford drop far enough to balance supply and demand of world oil.

The first big article:

12-22 – Wall Street Journal – Behind OPEC Decision, A Saudi Fear of U.S. Shale –

Saudi Arabia’s surprise move to maintain production and let oil prices collapse

… is a story of a budding rivalry, driven by what Saudi Arabia views as a threat posed by American energy firm …

according to the deeply reported article.

Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices #7 – two must-read articles”

More good stuff on the Bakken – 12/19

(photo by James Ulvog. If my city boy eyes are working right, there are 4 pumps, two of which are producing, along with a drilling rig and a workover rig on that one pad. Can you find 48 million dollars and 6 million barrels of oil in the picture?)

A few more articles that I found interesting on what’s going on in the rockin’ Bakken:

12/9 – Wall Street Journal – North Dakota Energy Regulator Mandates Steps to Reduce Oil Volatility– NDIC issued rules requiring oil be treated to reduce vapor pressure to 13.7 psi. Excess gas will be burned off by heater-treaters heating the crude to 110 degrees.

Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – 12/19”

About those dropping oil prices – 6

Have a lot of articles to discuss about what’s going on in the energy area. Lots of turmoil and uncertainty at the moment. Here are a few articles, to help get caught up:

12/6 – Economist – Sheikh v Shale – Love the cover illustration! I’ll be rooting for the shale guy in the showdown.

Article gives credit to shale oil for the drop in gas prices and oil prices. Take a bow, all you frackers in Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian! A $40 drop in price moves $1.3 trillion a year from producers to consumers. That is a savings of around $800 a year for an average American, or equivalent to a 2% pay raise, according to the article

Continue reading “About those dropping oil prices – 6”

More info from 12/14 Director’s Cut – Indicators for near term

For follow-up to my previous post on October oil production data in North Dakota, check out the Dickinson Press’ discussion of comments from Mr. Lynn Helms: Prices could plateau production: Hems says 2015 could be tough for oil.

Here are a few tidbits that help me understand what is going on around us:

Mr. Helms, who is director of the ND Department of Mineral Resources, didn’t think oil prices would drop this far.

Article says that on Friday sweet crude prices were $41.75 a barrel in North Dakota and $57.81 on the New York Mercantile.

Graphic at the Bakken Magazine says on Friday the Brent price was $62.05 and Cushing was $57.99. I’m slowly catching on (but you already knew that), so that graphic tells me that the Cushing price is also called the West Texas Intermediate index.

Rig count

Continue reading “More info from 12/14 Director’s Cut – Indicators for near term”

North Dakota oil production in October ’14 plateaus, likely for the winter

Total production in October 2014 averaged 1,182,174 bopd. That is down a smidgeon (2,461 bopd) from the preliminary of 1,184,635 in September, and down a smidgeon more (4,054 bopd) compared to the slightly revised 1,186,228 amount for September.

Here is what the total and Bakken-only production looks like:

The Director’s Cut each month has narrative on the month along with more statistical data. The December report is here.

Price of sweet crude

Continue reading “North Dakota oil production in October ’14 plateaus, likely for the winter”

Peak Oil debunked over and over and over again – #37

The Wall Street Journal has a delightful editorial today on Peak Oil. That prompted me to pull together several articles I’ve been wanting to talk about.

Just in case you wondered, the devotees of Peak Oil are alive and well. Many of the big names are reportedly in hiding. Do a few minute search on the ‘net and you can still find a lot of them. I’ve had a dialogue over the last few days with one gentleman on my blog.

Haven’t pointed out the foolishness of Peak Oil doctrine since July, so it’s time to look again. Here we go…

12/5 – Wall Street Journal – ‘Peak Oil’ Debunked, Again – And again. And again.

Gotta’ love the opening paragraph:

It has been 216 years since Thomas Malthus gave birth to the idea that mankind’s appetite for natural resources would outstrip nature’s capacity to supply them. There have since been regular warnings that the world is running out of soybeans, helium, chocolate, tunsgsten, you name it—and that population growth has become unsustainable. The warnings create a political or social panic for a while, only to be proved wrong.

Peak Oil is the current fad of ‘we will run out by the day after tomorrow.’

The run up in oil over the last several years to a high of around $112 this past summer has encouraged entreprenuers, or perhaps we should call them petroprenuers, to figure out how to get massive amount of shale oil out of the ground. Continue reading “Peak Oil debunked over and over and over again – #37”

More reaction to the hit pieces on North Dakota regulation of the oil industry

There is an old explanation that the best learning you will get about news coverage is when you watch media sources report on a topic for which you have deep knowledge.

It has been quite sobering to occasionally read a story where I can compare my knowledge gained from education and experience to what a reporter explains. In some situations, it is so easily to identify biases, slanted explanations, and sloppy reporting.

On the other hand, I’ve also learned from following the deworming valuation issue in the nonprofit community that sometimes reporters have an incredible depth of accurate knowledge, report accurately, and don’t even give the full range of damaging information they have gathered.

I’ve learned a lot about energy in the last four years. Am still quite new to the field, but finally know enough to carefully evaluate what I read.

That of course leads me to the hit pieces from the New York Times against state regulation of energy development, previously discussed here.

More on the first of two stories from the New York Times…

11/23 – Say Anything Blog – About that New York Times “Downside of the Boom” Story and 11/24 – Bakken.com – The dark side of the boom – isn’t so dark

Continue reading “More reaction to the hit pieces on North Dakota regulation of the oil industry”

More good stuff on the Bakken – 11/25

First comprehensive random survey of groundwater finds no contamination. Increased employment from Bakken spreading towards Black Hills in South Dakota, and another reason production will fall for the next few months.

11/17 – Dickinson Press – Groundwater study shows no contamination – Continue reading “More good stuff on the Bakken – 11/25”