Two more predictions on oil production in North Dakota – one an estimate of the date for 1M bopd and the other a never to exceed amount

I’ve been making note of predictions, forecasts, and wild guesses for when oil production in North Dakota will hit a million barrels a day.  I’ve seen another estimate for that. Also saw a prediction with an iron-clad upper limit that Bakken production will never cross.

Continue reading “Two more predictions on oil production in North Dakota – one an estimate of the date for 1M bopd and the other a never to exceed amount”

N.D. oil production passes the 700K bopd point in August ‘12

Average daily production in North Dakota is 701,134 barrels of oil per day (bopd) in August.

Here’s a couple of graphs.

Daily production by month. Blue is for entire state. Red is Bakken only.

 

A little longer time horizon:

Some analysis:

Continue reading “N.D. oil production passes the 700K bopd point in August ‘12”

Great animation of a drilling rig setup and superb background on Bakken

Million Dollar Way points to an amazing article at drillingcontractor.org. It opens with a promo video for a National Oilwell Varco drilling rig. Check out the cool animation at the end on how their rig sets up.

The article has a lot of background on the Bakken field, different technologies involved, some discussion on the geology of the field, what some of the major players are doing, and lots of details on drilling. Much there is a stretch for me, but a very good stretch.

Continue reading “Great animation of a drilling rig setup and superb background on Bakken”

Count of drilling rigs end of September 2012 – 190 and 274 for combined total of 464

190 – Bakken – from the current active drilling rig list at the N.D. Department of Mineral Resources website on 8-31-12.

274 – Eagle Ford – from EagleFordShale blog.

That is down 2 in Bakken and up 4 in Eagle Ford.

National rig count is 1,859 for 9-21-12.

Continue reading “Count of drilling rigs end of September 2012 – 190 and 274 for combined total of 464”

Another forecast for Bakken production – we have probably already hit the peak

Since I’ve started to pay attention to forecasts for the Bakken field, I’ll make note of one that is not so optimistic.

The Oil Drum has a post, Is Shale Oil Production from Bakken Headed for a Run with “The Red Queen? that doesn’t see substantial increases in future output.

The forecast in that post is for production to stay at roughly the current level, which for July 2012 was 674K bopd state-wide and 609K bopd for Bakken only. Here are two key comments, the first from the findings and the second from immediately after the findings: Continue reading “Another forecast for Bakken production – we have probably already hit the peak”

N.D. oil production hits 674K bopd in July 2012

Average daily production in North Dakota is 674,066 barrels of oil per day (bopd) in July.

The June data was adjusted up for late reporting. Now the June production is 664,618 bopd compared to the previously reported 660,322 bopd.

Continue reading “N.D. oil production hits 674K bopd in July 2012”

Count of drilling rigs end of August 2012 – 192 and 270 for combined total of 462

192  – Bakken – from the current active drilling rig list at the N.D. Department of Mineral Resources website on 8-31-12.

270 – Eagle Ford – from EagleFordShale blog.

Continue reading “Count of drilling rigs end of August 2012 – 192 and 270 for combined total of 462”

Another forecast – Bakken and Eagle Ford fields each to hit 1.3M bopd by 2020

Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm, has a prediction for tight oil production in the U.S.

They are predicting 1.3 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) in each of the fields by the end of the decade. That would be about doubling production from current levels.

Reading the full article requires a subscription to Petroleum Economist.

They also predict that Bakken production will hit 750K bopd by the end of 2012.

With June production at 660k bopd and increases of around 20k or 30k bopd each month, I don’t think it will take until the end of the year to hit 750k.

(h/t: BakkenBlog News twitter feed)

Hotel construction in Bakken

Bruce Oksol gives the count of hotels built and under construction in his post, Bakken at Random Note on Hotel/Motel Construction in the Oil Patch.

You need to read the article for yourself. Short summary – almost twice as many hotels coming on line this year than all of last year. More than that under construction or announced. Huge growth curve.

Amazing.

North Dakota oil production passes 660,000 level in June 2012

Average daily oil production in North Dakota for June 2012 hit 660,322 bopd, which is an increase of 20,341 over May.  The May increase was 30,469 barrels per day, or 5.0%.

Something I noticed this month is that the monthly data is revised just a bit in following months. That means if you keep your own set of stats for number crunching, like I do, you need check to see if the data was revised.

Number of wells increased to 7,130.

Here is a graph of monthly production: Continue reading “North Dakota oil production passes 660,000 level in June 2012”

16 years to fully develop Bakken

Fully developing the oil field in North Dakota may take another 16 to 18 years. That is the comment from Lynn Helms in an interview on “Platts Energy Week”.

North Dakota’s oil/gas boom to get even bigger, official says is the article that discusses the interview.

Other interesting comments-

Continue reading “16 years to fully develop Bakken”

Count of drilling rigs end of July 2012 – 208 and 270 for combined total of 478 – Not to worry about the slight drop.

208 – Bakken – from the current active drilling rig list at the N.D. Department of Mineral Resources website on 8-2-12.

270 – Eagle Ford – from EagleFordShale blog.

That is down 7 and down 8 since my June 30 post.

Don’t worry about the drop in rig count, which went from 493 in my last post to 478 now.

Continue reading “Count of drilling rigs end of July 2012 – 208 and 270 for combined total of 478 – Not to worry about the slight drop.”

New drilling permits in Bakken and Eagle Ford – May and June 2012

Eagle Ford Shale blog reports the number of permits issued by Texas RRC: 

Since May 14 when the RRC last updated the data points on its map, the commission has issued 367 permits. That’s more than 7 permits per day over a period of 50 days.

Adjust that count for the number of days and it is the rate of 220 per 30 days (367 / 50 *30).

How does that compare to Bakken?

Continue reading “New drilling permits in Bakken and Eagle Ford – May and June 2012”

Bakken oil output 2 million bopd by 2025?

That is the forecast by Bentek Energy LLC. I’ve been pointing out forecasts for Bakken production and this is the longest forecast I’ve seen.

The Dickinson Press picks up the AP report in their article Study: ND oil output may jump threefold by 2025.  The opening paragraph:

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