We need to learn quickly to keep up with the massive change around us so we don't get run over. We need to outrun change.
Wow. Ten times more drilling than has already happened. Speaking to the state legislature, Mr. Lynn Helms, who is the director of the Department of Mineral Resources, said
…the western part of the state had 6,447 wells in the oil-rich Bakken and Three Forks formations. Fully developing the formations will require drilling another 60,000 wells over the next 20 years …
When I visited Williston in October, I had a wild idea of interviewing a provider of private mail boxes in town. Time didn’t allow any effort to pursue that idea.
Amy Dalrymple has published the interview I could only dream of: Faces of the Boom: Entrepreneur delivers solution for those without an address.
[youtube=http://youtu.be/0ks2ua4imgU]
Production of Bakken oil in North Dakota will soon hit one million barrels a day. When it does, it will be one of only 4 fields in the U.S. to hit that level. Those 4 are part of an elite group of only 10 super-giant fields.
Applying some new trend analysis concepts, the EIA is predicting Bakken production will be 976K bopd in 11-13 and 1,002K bopd in 12-13.
I’m not sure if that estimate includes production from legacy wells. Even if it does and we back out September production of 65K bopd that only changes the date of crossing the 1M point by a month or so. That doesn’t matter for purposes of this discussion.
Their calculation shows Eagle Ford has already passed the 1M point. Permian production has been over the 1M point (again?) for a while and is at an estimated 1,340K bopd in December.
Along with Prudhoe Bay that makes four American fields that passed the 1M point.
Continue reading “Bakken and Eagle Ford in the elite of super-giant oil fields”
The Telegraph has a full length article on Boomtown, USA. In addition to a great feature in words, there are 9 videos, of about 2 minutes each.
Upside
The upside of the oil boom is incredible. Lots of guys are making $100K to $150K by working hard doing difficult work. The article guesses there are 10,000 men living in crew camps. Each of them is making, by my guess, between $70k and $125K a year.
My guess is most of those guys would be making $40K to $70K if they were working back home. Assuming they even had a job. Most of them wouldn’t.
Business is booming. Consumer stores are crowded. Construction is going as fast as the city can permit projects.
Continue reading “Upside and downside of the Bakken boom – in-depth article & videos”
New photos from Vern Whitten Photograph.
Energy related views: http://www.vernwhittenphotography.net/ene1013/
That’s the calculation from Dr. David Flynn, writing at the Say Anything Blog: Williston Labor Force May Soon Be Larger Than Grand Forks.
He calculates a 2.58% growth per month over the last three years in Williston. Here are the raw numbers:
In August 2010 the labor force in Williston was 18,819, and by August 2013 it increased to 47,060.
How do you cope with that kind of growth. You can’t. No community can.
I watch the Million Dollar Way blog closely. I’ve learned much from Mr. Bruce Oksol. Thank you sir.
In his post, Bakken Fanatics; Fasten Your Seatbelts – We’ve Not Seen Anything Yet, he mentions a Goldman Sachs study which predicts 10 years of continued growth in Bakken production. Their worst case scenario is 1.3M bopd in 2017.
More interesting is Mr. Oksol’s speculation that the state may slow things down a bit as an intentional choice. He says: Continue reading “Another prediction for oil production in North Dakota: back off the accelerator a bit”
A 3 minute intro to the Bakken boom with some really nice video of the plains, oil work, and the charm of the prairie.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OS9aZCxESsc]
Irish correspondent says the Bakken boom is getting boomier.
Also calls it the new Klondike.
(Hat tip: Bakken Shale)
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=LUQZc4ilyuo]
September production was 932,174 barrels a day. That is a 2.3% increase for the month.
I missed my prediction
The Energy Information Administration released a report about 2 weeks ago reporting their estimates of what production will be in 6 major fields for October and November.
Continue reading “Eagle Ford production passes the 1M bopd level in October?”
Million Dollar Way points to a must-read article at Rigzone: Kemp: Why Shale Plays really Are Different.
The article describes why perennial skeptics have been so severely wrong about Bakken shale oil, why the rapid decline rate is actually attractive, and explains shale oil is more manufacturing-like than conventional oil.
The “optimists” were conservative
Continue reading “Why shale is such a misunderstood game changer”
The point of this blog is to learn, so I have no problem admitting I have yet to catch on to lots of things, like how to pronounce Bakken and Eagle Ford.
Rockin’ the Bakken
Learned on my recent trip to North Dakota that Bakken is pronounced with an ‘ah’. It isn’t Bacon or Back-en.
Continue reading “Pronunciation guide to Bakken and Eagle Ford”
Million Dollar Way points to a presentation by Continental Resources from October 2013 available on this page.
May as well disclose this is not an investment site. It would be foolish to make investment decisions based on what I say.
What I will do is comment on a few tidbits in the presentation that expand my knowledge with the idea that people reading my blog would likely learn as well.
Drilling costs
Falling costs of drilling are described on slide eight. Here’s the disclosed info: Continue reading “More background on Bakken drilling including well costs and EURs”
Vern Whitten has superb photos of Bakken oil projects and communities. Having just returned from a road trip to Williston, I can appreciate his work much more now.
Here are two batches of his photos from September 2013:
(Hat tip: Million Dollar Way)
Monthly increase was just over 4% from the revised July amounts. Preliminary August production number was 911,496 barrels per day. Revisions are usually quite small.
Amy Dalrymple has some comments from D.M.R. Director Lynn Helms on what the next two months of data might include. In her article, N.D. oil production tops 900,000 barrels per day, she reports:
Helms said he expects to see another significant production increase in September, but an unusually wet October brought a lot of work to a halt in the state’s busiest county, Helms said.
McKenzie County, which has about one-third of the state’s 183 drilling rigs, has had to close gravel roads to heavy trucks in recent days, which means rigs can’t move and trucks can’t haul water and sand needed for hydraulic fracturing.
So, expect a big increase in September, but not so much in October.
Here are three graphs to show the increase. Click on any of them to see a larger version.
Production by month from ’04 through 10-13:
Statewide and Bakken only:
Continue reading “N.D. oil production passes 900,000 in August”