fracking – Page 7 – Outrun Change

More good stuff on the energy revolution – 3/30

A few articles on the shale revolution: scale of layoffs, improving efficiencies by drilling companies, and China scraps a shale gas project.

3/16 – Forbes – Itemizing the Oil Bust: 75,000 Layoffs and Counting – Article reports on a tally given the author by an insider of the known layoffs in the oil & gas industry. Insiders tell him that stacking a rig costs 40 jobs. Based on the rest of the article, I think that is direct jobs.

Total estimated job loss is 75,000 in an industry with 600,000 jobs. By sector that is estimated at Continue reading “More good stuff on the energy revolution – 3/30”

Impact of oil and gas industry on North Dakota economy. General insights on energy in the state.

Petroleum Industry’s Economic Contribution to North Dakota in 2013 is the current update to a bi-annual analysis of how much the oil and gas industry contributes to the state’s economy. You can find the report at the previous link or here. The research was conducted by Dean A. Bangsund and Nancy M. Hodur, profs at North Dakota State University.

The executive summary provides a great overview of the petroleum industry and the economic activity in the state. Worth reading for the overall background, a general intro to the energy industry, and what’s going on in Bakken.

I read most of the report. In addition to historical information on average cost to drill and complete a well which is summarized in the graph above, here are some of the highlights that caught my eye:

Continue reading “Impact of oil and gas industry on North Dakota economy. General insights on energy in the state.”

Initial thoughts on newly released EPA rules on fracking

(photo by James Ulvog)

Yesterday the EPA released their long-awaited rules for fracking wells on public land. Since a minimal percentage of new wells are drilled on federal land, the direct impact will be minor and the indirect impact remains to be determined. Here’s a few articles that start to give preliminary details along with a few of my thoughts.

3/20 – Wall Street Journal – Fracking Rules Unveiled by Obama Administration – Fascinating issue is that the states with most of the drilling already have substantial rules in place for fracking.

Federal estimates are the cost to comply with the new rules will be $11,400 per well, or $32M industry wide per year. I’m struggling with the validity of that $11K estimate.

Article says Texas and North Dakota already ban the use of open-pit storage of wastewater. More on that in a moment.

3/20 – Dickinson Press – Final fracking rule released for federal, Indian lands: With regulations already in place, ND may enter into memorandum of understanding – Article has one tidbit that I think explains the real goal of the regulations: the rules are 395 pages long.

Continue reading “Initial thoughts on newly released EPA rules on fracking”

What energy will provide the power to keep our prosperous lives prosperous? Fossil fuels or wind & solar?

Entertaining contrast of two articles I saw on Friday. Each points to a different future. Which world view will make life better for more people all over the planet? Which energy source will provide prosperity for the most people?

Here’s a hint:

(From Carpe Diem. Used with permission.)

3/13 – Matt Ridley at Wall Street Journal – Fossil Fuels Will Save the World (Really) / There are problems with oil, gas and coal, but their benefits for people—and the planet—are beyond dispute

Article was feature on front page of the Review section on Saturday.

I will talk about this article a lot. In the meantime, here’s my paraphrase of just a few major points: Continue reading “What energy will provide the power to keep our prosperous lives prosperous? Fossil fuels or wind & solar?”

More good stuff on the open frontier of energy – 2/25

New frontiers are rough and tumble places. The energy revolution is proving to be no exception.

A few recent articles about crude oil and natural gas which I found interesting:

2/19 – Nature – Study finds relatively low emissions of methane from major US gas fields / After a series of alarming reports, scientists estimate leak rate of about 1% for three major US gas formations – Study by team from University of Colorado Boulder estimates that methane emissions in three major gas fields, (Haynesville, Fayetteville, and Marcellus) averages about 1% of gas that is produced. Range is from 0.18%-0.41% in Marcellus to 2.1% in Haynesville and 2.8% in Fayetteville. Average of 1% is in line with industry and EPA estimates and dramatically less than the 1.5% many critics claim.

2/9 – Wall Street Journal – Oil-Price rebound Predicted – Continue reading “More good stuff on the open frontier of energy – 2/25”

2 graphs of annual oil production in North Dakota through 2014

Here is are two pictures of the production of crude oil in the state. The monthly production is multiplied by the state’s calculation of average price with the monthly amounts aggregated.

Dollar value of production, in billions:

Amount of production, in millions of barrels:

Continue reading “2 graphs of annual oil production in North Dakota through 2014”

Oil production in N.D. hits record in December ‘14, breaking 1.2M bopd

Oil production averaged 1,227,344 in December, up from a slightly revised 1,188,258 in November, a 3.29% increase. Only passed the 1M bopd mark in April, eight months ago. Up 22% in eight months.

Rig count is dropping rapidly. Prices as well. More on that here.

Update before the graphs: A few tidbits from the Department of mineral Resources director Lynn Helms on the information released Friday, as mentioned in the Bismarck Tribune’s article, Daily oil production passes 1.2 million barrels. He mentioned with oil prices starting to recover, there is a “renewed confidence” that the big trigger of oil tax reductions will not take place.

Article says, as I’ve mentioned previously, that the little trigger was pulled effective the first of February.

Flaring targets

Flaring dropped to 24% in December. He expects the January target to be met.

Targets for flaring, per the article:

26% – 10/1/14
23% – 1/1/15
15% – two years
10% – six years

Now to the graphs. Here is some statistical data to show the story better than my words can tell:

For a longer term perspective:

Continue reading “Oil production in N.D. hits record in December ‘14, breaking 1.2M bopd”

Risk of harm is bad. Certainty of harm is good. The disconnect in assessing risks of getting the energy we need.

Sometimes you just have to scratch your head wondering about the fantasmagorical world inhabited by some regulators. A good dose of ridicule might bring them back to earth, but the chances are small. I’ll give it a try anyway.

1/14 – ReWire – Report: Fracking Imperils Southern California Residents, Wildlife – A report from the California Department of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources concluded that any fracking in three specific oil fields in the state would have

“significant and unavoidable” environmental damage”.

There would be significant risk of damage to:

Air quality
Wildlife
Public and worker safety
Increased greenhouse emissions
recreational use of surrounding lands
transportation and traffic problems

This, in a state that is building wind turbines as fast as the rare earth minerals can be mined and the concrete can be poured to get the slice-and-dice blades spinning.

This, in a state that has a huge solar plant that is killing unknown and intentionally undercounted numbers of protected & migratory birds and wants to build many more such wing-toaster facilities.

Continue reading “Risk of harm is bad. Certainty of harm is good. The disconnect in assessing risks of getting the energy we need.”

North Dakota oil production barely hits new record in November 2014

(Photo by James Ulvog. Notice the miles and miles of farm land in the background with one or perhaps two wells in sight)

Crude oil production in North Dakota edged up a smidgen (0.31%) in November to an average 1,187,206 bopd from a revised 1,183,515 in October. The data for September and October was revised for one more well being reported. The October production was down a smidgen (-0.24%).

The November ’14 production is barely a record compared to the previous revised high in September ’14 of 1,186,305.

Here is my graph of production by month:

(Will someone please, please, claim that flat top is proof positive that Peak Oil doctrine is true? And that production will now start an irreversible decline to near zero? Please?)

Here is what the price trend looks like.

Continue reading “North Dakota oil production barely hits new record in November 2014”

New York State bans fracking and economic growth

The official position of New York State is to ban fracking for natural gas.

A December 19 editorial in the Wall Street Journal blasts the decision: Cuomo Bans Fracking – Editorial points out since regulators in New York State have decided that fracking possibly, perhaps, maybe, might have some danger that haven’t yet been established, they must ban fracking in the gas rich Marcellus Shale area of the state.

Ridicule alert

If you don’t like heaping helpings of ridicule poured on the heads of foolish leaders, you might want to skip the rest of this discussion. Might be better for you not to click the link to the WSJ editorial.

Okay, you’ve been warned. Continue reading “New York State bans fracking and economic growth”

More info from 12/14 Director’s Cut – Indicators for near term

For follow-up to my previous post on October oil production data in North Dakota, check out the Dickinson Press’ discussion of comments from Mr. Lynn Helms: Prices could plateau production: Hems says 2015 could be tough for oil.

Here are a few tidbits that help me understand what is going on around us:

Mr. Helms, who is director of the ND Department of Mineral Resources, didn’t think oil prices would drop this far.

Article says that on Friday sweet crude prices were $41.75 a barrel in North Dakota and $57.81 on the New York Mercantile.

Graphic at the Bakken Magazine says on Friday the Brent price was $62.05 and Cushing was $57.99. I’m slowly catching on (but you already knew that), so that graphic tells me that the Cushing price is also called the West Texas Intermediate index.

Rig count

Continue reading “More info from 12/14 Director’s Cut – Indicators for near term”

A discussion about finite oil

A commenter on my blog has asked a few questions. We have a pleasant discussion running.

Yesterday he asked if the amount of oil is finite.

As I started to reply, I just kept writing and writing. Decided to move my comment to a separate post so the conversation is more visible.

On December 9, Stig Helmer (self-identification) said: Continue reading “A discussion about finite oil”

The visual appearance of a million barrel a day oil field

(All photos by James Ulvog. Above view of 4 pads, with a pair of flares visible in the middle and workover rig on pad in lower left.)

Following post was written on October 18, when my wife and I flew out of Williston:

We took a 6:25 a.m. flight, so it was still dark. The view on departure was fabulous.

I wish I had the camera equipment (and the skill) to show what I saw.

Words will have to suffice, along with photos taken during daylight.

Sky was clear until several minutes from the airport, then clouds slowly built up.

Drilling rigs are quite visible, what with those tall metal superstructures and the working deck all lit up. Sorta’ like an all white Christmas tree.

Continue reading “The visual appearance of a million barrel a day oil field”

Peak Oil debunked over and over and over again – #37

The Wall Street Journal has a delightful editorial today on Peak Oil. That prompted me to pull together several articles I’ve been wanting to talk about.

Just in case you wondered, the devotees of Peak Oil are alive and well. Many of the big names are reportedly in hiding. Do a few minute search on the ‘net and you can still find a lot of them. I’ve had a dialogue over the last few days with one gentleman on my blog.

Haven’t pointed out the foolishness of Peak Oil doctrine since July, so it’s time to look again. Here we go…

12/5 – Wall Street Journal – ‘Peak Oil’ Debunked, Again – And again. And again.

Gotta’ love the opening paragraph:

It has been 216 years since Thomas Malthus gave birth to the idea that mankind’s appetite for natural resources would outstrip nature’s capacity to supply them. There have since been regular warnings that the world is running out of soybeans, helium, chocolate, tunsgsten, you name it—and that population growth has become unsustainable. The warnings create a political or social panic for a while, only to be proved wrong.

Peak Oil is the current fad of ‘we will run out by the day after tomorrow.’

The run up in oil over the last several years to a high of around $112 this past summer has encouraged entreprenuers, or perhaps we should call them petroprenuers, to figure out how to get massive amount of shale oil out of the ground. Continue reading “Peak Oil debunked over and over and over again – #37”

Another month of record production in North Dakota – up 4.6% for the month

(Photo by James Ulvog)

Oil production in North Dakota increased to average of 1,184,635 bopd in September, up 4.63% from August. Bakken only production was 1,120,031 bopd average.

That is a 26.8% increase from 9/13 to 9/14. Very cool.

Flared percentage was down to 24% from 28% in August and 26% in July.

Here are some updated graphs:

Bakken and state-wide production since ’08:

More graphs –

Statewide since 2004: Continue reading “Another month of record production in North Dakota – up 4.6% for the month”